Sergei Guriev on Putin, populism, Chinese repression, and more

Guriev assesses the strength of Putin's grip on power, predicts that Xi Jinping’s embrace of personalist rule will lead to policy missteps, and more. The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( This week in Say More, PS talks with Sergei Guriev, Provost and Professor of Economics at Sciences Po and co-author (with Daniel Treisman) of [Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century](. To read the full interview – in which Guriev assesses the strength of the Russian president’s grip on power, predicts that Xi Jinping’s embrace of personalist rule will lead to policy missteps, urges the West to pursue a strategy of “adversarial engagement” toward modern dictators, and more – [click here](. Sergei Guriev Says More... Syndicate: For 20 years, you [point out]( Russian President Vladimir Putin was a quintessential example of the “new breed” of autocrat you and Daniel Treisman discuss in your book [Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century]( – rulers who “maintain control by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures.” But with the invasion of Ukraine, you argue, Putin has reverted from modern “spin dictator” to classic “fear dictator,” and the “life expectancy” of his regime has “abruptly fallen.” What drove this shift from manipulation to violence, and how tenuous is Putin’s grip on power today? Sergei Guriev: The 2023 edition of Spin Doctors has a new preface that explores precisely this change. Like other spin dictators, Putin was struggling to control a population that continued to develop. With the rise of a better-educated middle class came more criticism of Putin’s corrupt regime, which had proved unable to generate sufficient income growth. The proliferation of social media compounded the challenge, not least because... [Continue reading]( [PS Winter Sale: Save 25% on a new Digital or Digital Plus subscription.]( By the Way... PS: While most of today’s authoritarians are spin dictators, you classify Chinese President Xi Jinping differently: as a “master of high-tech repression” who “used informational tools not to replace terror but to better target it.” But China’s regime has long depended on rapid economic growth and rising incomes as a substitute for repression. What, then, do China’s current economic struggles mean for Xi’s dictatorship? How widespread could targeted repression become? SG: In 2022, Xi completed China’s transformation from a party-based regime into a personalistic one. This does not bode well for China’s economy, given the aforementioned propensity of dictators to make [policy mistakes](. In this sense, Xi’s zero-COVID policy... [Continue reading]( [PS Say More: Shashi Tharoor on India-Russia relations, the Quad, Ambedkar, and more]( [Shashi Tharoor on India-Russia relations, the Quad, Ambedkar, and more]( Shashi Tharoor assesses prevailing Indian perceptions of the Ukraine War, criticizes India’s continued wariness of security pacts, touts affirmative-action programs that guarantee outcomes, not just access to opportunities, and more. Tharoor is an MP for the Indian National Congress and the author, most recently, of [Ambedkar: A Life](. [Read now]( [PS. Sign up for our Behind the Headlines newsletter to get cutting-edge analysis of the most important new stories.]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [LinkedIn]( Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. Receipt of this newsletter does not guarantee rights to re-publish any of its content. This newsletter is a service of [Project Syndicate](. [Change your newsletter preferences](. Follow us on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and [YouTube](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from all newsletters](.