Nouriel Roubini on stagflation, debt distress, Chinese innovation, and more

Roubini says advanced-economy central banks have only bad options, predicts that China’s growth slowdown will continue, and more. The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( This week in Say More, PS talks with Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and the author of [MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them](. To read the full interview – in which Roubini explains why advanced-economy central banks have only bad options, highlights barriers to tackling inequality, predicts that China’s growth slowdown will continue, and more – [click here](. Nouriel Roubini Says More... Syndicate: In your latest PS [commentary]( you reaffirmed your expectation that monetary authorities’ efforts to rein in inflation will “cause both an economic and a financial crash,” and that “regardless of their tough talk,” central banks “will feel immense pressure to reverse their tightening” once that crash materializes. What would the impact of such a reversal be? Do monetary policymakers in the United States and Europe have any good – or less bad – options? Nouriel Roubini: Central banks are in both a stagflation trap and a debt trap. Amid negative aggregate supply shocks that reduce growth and increase inflation, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they increase interest rates enough to bring inflation down to 2%, they will cause a severe economic hard landing. And if they don’t – attempting instead to protect growth and jobs – they will be left... [Continue reading]( [Subscribe now to PS Digital]( By the Way... PS: “You indicate in MegaThreats that whoever leads in AI may become the leading global power, and you suggest that China may get there first. But the recent government crackdown on tech companies has raised fears that China is crushing the sector’s “animal spirits,” and Xi’s recent consolidation of power implies that the ruling Communist Party’s commitment to central control will only strengthen. How do you view China’s high-tech ambitions – and its economic prospects more broadly – under Xi? NR: The US and China are in a race not only to become the leading geopolitical and military power of this century, but also to dominate the industries of the future, including AI, machine learning, robotics, automation, the Internet of Things, big data, 5G (tomorrow, 6G), and quantum computing. Both are subsidizing these technologies, but China takes a more heavy-handed command-and-control approach. True, China’s recent crackdown on the private sector, including tech firms, does not bode well for the country’s ability to devise truly innovative technologies and applications. But the sheer force of China's... [Continue reading]( [PS Longer Reads: The Age of Megathreats]( [The Age of Megathreats]( By Nouriel Roubini For four decades after World War II, climate change and job-displacing artificial intelligence were not on anyone’s mind, and terms like "deglobalization" and "trade war" had no purchase. But now we are entering a new era that will more closely resemble the tumultuous and dark decades between 1914 and 1945. [Read now]( [Don't miss our COP27 event, the Energy Revolution.]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [LinkedIn]( Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. Receipt of this newsletter does not guarantee rights to re-publish any of its content. This newsletter is a service of [Project Syndicate](. [Change your newsletter preferences](. Follow us on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and [YouTube](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from all newsletters](.