Ian Goldin for PS Say More

The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( Welcome to Say More, a weekly newsletter offering readers exclusive insights into the ideas, interests, and personalities of some of the world’s leading thinkers. In each issue, a Project Syndicate contributor is invited to expand on topics covered in their commentaries, address new issues, and share recommendations about everything from books and recordings to hobbies and social media. This week, PS talks with Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalization and Development at the University of Oxford and the co-author (with Robert Muggah) of [Terra Incognita: 100 Maps to Survive the Next 100 Years](. To read the full interview – in which Goldin calls for a global Marshall Plan to support developing countries during the current crisis, says why migrants are indispensable in the battle against COVID-19, and shows how he predicted the pandemic – [click here](. Ian Goldin Says More… Project Syndicate[Ian Goldin]( As you and [Robert Muggah]( [noted]( in May, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown into sharp relief many of the negative side effects of rising economic inequality. In your recent BBC Series [The Pandemic that Changed the World]( you highlight the critical importance of equity in vaccine distribution. Could a plan for the equitable distribution of a vaccine be designed in a way that helps to catalyze broader efforts to address inequality in a post-COVID world? What might that look like? Ian Goldin: The first step is the vaccine itself. It is vital that everyone – from the richest to the poorest, in developed and developing countries – be given access to any effective COVID-19 vaccine at the same time. If vaccines were available only to countries or individuals that can afford them, this would exacerbate existing health and economic inequalities. Within countries, poor people – who most likely lack a savings cushion, and probably cannot secure an income working remotely – would have to risk exposure to the virus or face deepening poverty and hunger. And countries without access to vaccines would have to uphold social-distancing measures and even full lockdowns for longer, hampering their economic recovery. Given the negative impact this would have on overall global growth, even countries that did get access to a vaccine would ultimately be affected. The good news is that GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, has [received]( almost $10 billion to enable it to provide COVID-19 vaccines to 92 low- and middle-income countries. But the vaccine itself is not enough. The same principles of global equity and solidarity that must shape vaccine-distribution efforts should also be applied to addressing other dimensions of inequality, which have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. The international community must provide livelihood support – in the form of a basic income – to poor people in countries where the national government cannot afford to do it alone. The governments that can afford it have so far [allocated]( a whopping $10 trillion for economic stimulus at home. The amount of support [offered]( to developing countries amounts to less than 1% of that total. That is why I have called for a global Marshall Plan that would include writing off the $44 billion in debt that will come due for African countries this year, and giving at least $2.5 trillion in aid to poor countries. The only condition should be that the money is used to alleviate the pandemic’s impact. PS: In 2018, you and [Benjamin Nabarro]( [delved]( into the complexities of migration’s economic impact, focusing on the destination countries of Europe and North America. But developing countries also receive large numbers of migrants, including both refugees and economic migrants. What policies and programs would enable them to reap similar economic benefits? IG: In fact, more migrants... [Continue reading]( [The COVID City]( [The COVID City]( By Ian Goldin and Robert Muggah The COVID-19 pandemic has fallen hardest not just on cities but on poorer, overcrowded neighborhoods, lending further credence to the observation that, in today's world, one's post code determines one's destiny. But could the pandemic lead to a more advanced and inclusive form of urbanism? By the Way... PS: Six years ago, you predicted in your book [The Butterfly Defect]( that the next financial crash would be caused by a pandemic. From an economic-policy perspective, what is the key difference between responding to a crash like that of 2008, which began with the failure of US subprime mortgages, and one precipitated by a global public-health crisis? Conversely, are there lessons from 2008 that remain relevant today? IG: In The Butterfly Defect, I showed that in a networked system, systemic risks can originate anywhere, and that mitigating them requires coordinated local actions. The US subprime crisis led to a global economic crisis, owing to contagion through financial networks. The pandemic also reflects contagion – this time, through travel (especially air-travel) networks. For years, the distance between virus reservoirs and densely populated cities and their increasingly connected airports has been shrinking. It was this observation that led me to the conclusion that a devastating pandemic was inevitable, and that it would lead to a global economic crisis. The big surprise when the COVID-19 pandemic emerged was how unprepared the world was. I also did not anticipate that the US would actively undermine the international response to the public-health and economic crises. In fact, herein lies a lesson from 2008 that remains very much relevant: during the last crisis, the US used the system to marshal a massive coordinated response, which restored confidence and prevented the crisis from spiraling, not least in emerging economies. Today, the US has shown no such leadership and has resisted coordinated responses. This is compounding the health and economic emergencies, especially for countries that depend on international support. The United Nations and the International Monetary Fund estimate that addressing the economic and health needs of developing countries will cost $2.5 trillion; less than 5% of that amount has been mobilized so far. The US government’s decisions are intensifying the crisis both at home and internationally. The contrast between America’s post-2008 leadership and its failures today could not be sharper. PS: In the third and final part of [The Pandemic that Changed the World]( you express your hope that we can take inspiration from those who decided that the suffering of World War II wouldn’t be for naught. Their determination led to the creation of multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank, as well as the Marshall Plan. Will new institutions need to be built after the pandemic? IG: In my 2013 book [Divided Nations]( I showed that there was already an urgent need... [Continue reading]( [Say More: Bertrand Badré]( Previously in Say More [Bertrand Badré]( – a former managing director of the World Bank and the current CEO of Blue like an Orange Sustainable Capital – argues that capitalism should be reformed not replaced, bets on the EU recovery fund, and rates the World Bank’s COVID-19 response. [Read more](. 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