Robert Muggah for PS Say More

The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( Welcome to Say More, a weekly newsletter offering readers exclusive insights into the ideas, interests, and personalities of some of the world’s leading thinkers. In each issue, a Project Syndicate contributor is invited to expand on topics covered in their commentaries, address new issues, and share recommendations about everything from books and recordings to hobbies and social media. This week, PS talks with Robert Muggah, a co-founder of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Group. [Read the full interview]( Robert Muggah Says More… Project Syndicate[Robert Muggah]( In May, you and [Ilona Szabó]( identified [three ways]( Brazilian President Bolsonaro could potentially be ousted before the 2022 election: impeachment by Congress, conviction by the Supreme Court for common crimes, or ejection by the national electoral tribunal for alleged misconduct during the 2018 campaign. How likely are any of these outcomes? And if Bolsonaro were ousted, how much better off would Brazil be with Vice President Hamilton Mourão until the 2022 election? RM: Bolsonaro is presiding over Brazil’s most chaotic and reckless administration since independence. His political future hinges on whether he can contain the COVID-19 pandemic, shore up political support, and keep a battered economy from collapsing. On the first task, he has failed spectacularly. Over 2.2 million Brazilians are infected – including Bolsonaro himself – and 81,000 have died since the outbreak began. Researchers think the true figures could be 10-15 times higher. Yet Bolsonaro has remained [steadfast in his refusal]( to introduce common-sense health measures. In fact, he has publicly spoken out against them. This has not helped with the second imperative. Bolsonaro’s approval rating has taken a hit, though it has [improved]( somewhat in the last couple of months. His cabinet is beset by turmoil. Moreover, criminal investigations into his sons continue, and his alleged [attempts]( to obstruct them have prompted their own investigations. All of this has accelerated calls for his resignation or impeachment. Almost 50 separate impeachment requests have been [filed]( against Bolsonaro in the lower house of Congress. As of last month, 55% of Brazilians said they would like to see him removed before the next election. Yet, as dire as things are, Bolsonaro will not go down [without a fight](. A savvy political operator, he has expanded his congressional base over the past few weeks. Already, he commands the support of 40% of legislators, winning them over with petty favors and positions. Bolsonaro has similarly bought support from members of the military establishment: since 2019, almost 3,000 army personnel have joined the government. Many state police also back Bolsonaro. And hardcore (often armed) Bolsonaro loyalists make up roughly 30% of the electorate. Brazilians are exhausted by Bolsonaro, but they are also polarized and afraid. Even in the unlikely event that Bolsonaro is ousted and replaced by Mourão, we can expect continued uncertainty and instability until the scheduled elections in 2022. PS: Among Bolsonaro’s failures is accelerated deforestation in the Amazon. In March 2019, you, Szabó, and [Adriana Abdenur]( showed that this is [partly a result]( of organized crime, especially illegal mining. But you also argued that relying on the police, while necessary, is risky, and that expanding police discretion would be ill advised, given large numbers of police-related killings and the growing threat of politicization of the federal police. Which reforms might ensure that police forces can protect crucial public goods like the Amazon, without infringing on human rights? Are there examples elsewhere in Latin America that Brazil should emulate? RM: The Amazon basin is home to 40% of the world’s tropical forests, 20% of its fresh water supply, and 10% of its biodiversity. It is also [perilously close to collapse]( because of illegal deforestation. Since massive wildfires grabbed global headlines last year, forest clearances have [increased by more than 30%]( reaching a 13-year high. And Brazil’s government is doing virtually nothing about it. It could be argued that Bolsonaro poses the single greatest threat to the Amazon. His pro-development rhetoric has [encouraged illegal land clearance](. With the support of powerful rural politicians and the agroindustry and mining lobbies, he has systematically dismantled Brazil’s environmental protections and expanded access to concessions, especially on protected indigenous land. Violence against [environmental defenders and indigenous-rights groups]( has also soared. Moreover, as I explained in a [Foreign Policy article]( last year, Bolsonaro has stripped the country’s environmental-protection agency (IBAMA) and the national indigenous foundation (FUNAI) of human resources, financing, and discretionary power. While he has reluctantly deployed national security forces to curb wildfires, deforestation in the Amazon has [spun out of control]( and is now occurring at the highest rate since the mid-1990s. Rampant deforestation in the Amazon, as well as destruction of the vast Cerrado savannah, coincides with steadily increasing police violence in [these regions]( and across [most of the country](. Excessive use of force by police is [nothing new]( in Brazil, but it [has proliferated]( since Bolsonaro’s election in 2018. Many Brazilian states were already registering unprecedented rates of police violence before the COVID-19 outbreak. In 2019, state police in Rio de Janeiro [killed over 1,810 people]( – five killings per day, on average. Across the country, police killed more than 5,800 people, making Brazil a global leader in police killings per capita. In 2020, police killings have [continued to rise]( including in states such as [São Paulo](. Given this, the solution to illegal deforestation is not necessarily to send more police. Instead – as [previous administrations recognized]( – Brazil should implement permanent surveillance of the relevant areas, with the goal of bringing deforestation down to zero. Brazilian lawmakers should also immediately expand remote-sensing capabilities, restore indigenous-land protections, and strengthen environmental-protection agencies, including IBAMA (which has its own police unit) and FUNAI. Furthermore, national authorities could implement measures targeting illegal loggers and land speculators, and secure greater support from the armed forces in enforcing penalties for non-compliance with environmental regulations. Bolstering the ability of local and international organizations and [coalitions of scientists]( to help restore degraded areas is also essential, as is engaging and encouraging the agricultural and beef industries – especially [the largest offenders]( – to “green” their supply chains. PS: Police reform is also a hot topic in developed countries, especially the United States, where anger over police violence, racism, and inequality is fueling ongoing protests. Higher inequality, you and [Ian Goldin]( [wrote]( in March, leads to lower economic growth and higher crime rates, and addressing it requires “more investments in employment and income opportunities for deprived communities, and in health, education, and social protections.” This seems to support arguments, now gaining traction in the US, in favor of redistributing resources from law enforcement to these areas. How convincing is the demand to “defund the police”? Would it be enough to finance the types of investments you advocate? RM: Ongoing protests over police violence in the US, led by the Black Lives Matter movement, have spurred [intense debate]( on the future of policing. Some proposals are clearly more radical than others. Obviously, calls to defund and even abolish the police are a far cry from banning so-called neck restraints, increasing civilian oversight, and creating task forces to recommend changes. There’s no doubt that US police forces are bloated. The US spends about twice as much on its 18,000 police forces, courts, and prisons than it spends on social welfare, even though there is no correlation between the number of police officers per capita and crime. But... [Continue reading]( [Viral Inequality]( [Viral Inequality]( By Robert Muggah and Ian Goldin Far from merely reflecting an unequal distribution of economic means, rising inequality comes with a broad range of additional toxic side effects, many of which the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown into sharp relief. With the pandemic transforming life around the world before our eyes, this is a problem that can no longer be ignored. Previously in Say More [Helmut K. Anheier]( – former Professor of Sociology at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, Professor Emeritus at Heidelberg University’s Max Weber Institute, and a faculty member at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs – proposes a strategy for a people’s globalization, offers lessons from Germany for countries reckoning with their own histories of racism, and outlines an agenda for Germany’s EU Council presidency. [Read more](. [Sami Mahroum]( – a professor at the Free University of Brussels and a senior fellow at the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut – says why Americans have failed the COVID-19 lockdown test, cautions against rushing AI-based medical solutions, and proposes mechanisms for holding governments accountable for their public-health failures. [Read more](. [Check out the full Say More archive]( Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. This newsletter is a service of [Project Syndicate](. [Change your newsletter preferences](. Follow us on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and [YouTube](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from all newsletters](.