Jim O’Neill for PS Say More

The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( Welcome to Say More, a weekly newsletter offering readers exclusive insights into the ideas, interests, and personalities of some of the world’s leading thinkers. In each issue, a Project Syndicate contributor is invited to expand on topics covered in their commentaries, address new issues, and share recommendations about everything from books and recordings to hobbies and social media. This week, Project Syndicate catches up with [Jim O’Neill]( Chair of Chatham House and a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and UK Treasury Minister. Jim O’Neill Says More… Project Syndicate[Jim O'Neill]( At the end of last year, you [named]( US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability (including his propensity to lie to prevent stock markets from falling) and the possibility of a Chinese growth slowdown (especially significantly weaker consumption) as two key sources of risk for emerging economies. Now that the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted – and intensified – both of these risks, how would you revise your outlook for emerging markets for 2020? What actions should these economies take to boost their resilience in the face of the current crisis? Jim O’Neill: I think that any outlook for any part of the world economy, including so-called emerging markets, depends on progress in the fight against COVID-19, especially the rapid development and deployment of antigen and antibody tests, the introduction of contact tracing (so that we can put blunt social-distancing behind us), and ultimately a vaccine or cure. Only then can some kind of economic recovery occur, and the damage to emerging economies be limited. That means that the most crucial measures will be taken not just by these countries, but by all of the G20 economies: their leaders must agree to finance the required efforts – research and development of diagnostics, therapeutics, and a vaccine, as well as the implementation of contact tracing. They must also contribute to expanding the financing facilities of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In assessing emerging-market countries’ prospects, one should also watch whether Asian economies that appear to have gotten COVID-19 under control – especially China – show continued evidence of recovery. If they do, they might continue to perform better than economies elsewhere in the world, as they have since early March. PS: “Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly accelerated the use of disinfectants,” you [wrote]( last month, “I shudder to think of a future in which we still have not taken the necessary steps to manage biological threats.” How can governments ensure that measures taken today advance longer-term health objectives such as the fight against antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which, as you pointed out, “could take up to ten million lives per year” by 2050? JO: As much as possible, I try to apply the aphorism, attributed to Winston Churchill, that one should “never let a crisis go to waste.” However unfortunate, crises are inevitable. How we – individuals, policymakers, communities, countries, or companies – respond shows who we are and determines the future we build. During the COVID-19 crisis, we should be aiming to build a better future, including with regard to AMR. We must fight that battle with greater determination and focus than ever, and I am currently working actively to secure that outcome. The COVID-19 crisis has underscored a lesson I learned when I started as chair of the UK-backed independent review on AMR: you cannot separate finance from health. The G20 governments are realizing that they must invest generously in the development of COVID-19 diagnostics, therapeutics, and a potential vaccine. Acting on the facts about AMR that they themselves have acknowledged in their annual meetings since 2015, they must make similarly concerted investments in the pursuit of more useful antibiotics, vaccines, and other anti-microbials, in order to protect the world from AMR. It may cost about $10-15 billion – peanuts compared to the price we will pay if we run out of effective antibiotics. To read the rest of our interview with O’Neill – in which he outlines a public-health role for the IMF, expresses hope for the future of stakeholder capitalism, and offers practical advice to jittery investors – [click here](. If you are not yet a PS subscriber, [subscribe now](. PS Topic [The COVID-19 Crisis]( All the latest insights and analysis on the escalating – and evolving – pandemic from PS commentators. Previously in Say More [Melvin Sanicas]( – a physician and scientist who works as a medical director at Takeda – argued that we should already be preparing for the next pandemic, corrected a common misconception about COVID-19, and recommended reading for anyone using social media. [Read more](. [Kemal Derviş]( – Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former Turkish economy minister and administrator of the UN Development Programme – urged leaders to advance clear and compelling COVID-19 narratives, suggested how to create more robust systems, and shared which books are keeping him company during long days of confinement. [Read more](. Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. This newsletter is a service of [Project Syndicate](. [Change your newsletter preferences](. Follow us on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and [YouTube](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from all newsletters](.