The Stock Market Might Not Crater in the 1st half

[Silver Ridge Market Report Logo] [Privacy Policy]( | [Advertiser Disclosure]( Senior Analyst Morning Brew Many prominent Wall Street strategists warned that the S&P 500 was likely to sell-off sharply during the early part of 2023 before recovering at least some of those losses later in the year. This was driven by the expectation that expectations for earnings would continue to get revised lower. But there were at least three issues with all this: 1) stocks often rise in years when earnings fall 2) stocks usually bottom before earnings bottom 3) when many people expect stocks to sell-off for the same reason, then that information is likely to be already priced into the market. The S&P 500 is up 6.5% in 2023 so far, and the index has spent much of this period higher than where it started the year. At least one top strategist has abandoned his call for an early sell-off. Here’s Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin in a Feb. 3 note to clients (emphasis added): Recent macro developments have strengthened our economists’ confidence in a soft landing and reduced equity downside risk in the near term. Outside the US, the growth picture in China has brightened following an earlier-than-expected reopening and Europe is now on track to avoid a recession following a warmer-than-expected winter. In addition, Fed Chair Powell this week did little to push back on the easing of financial conditions. Our rates strategists’ expected path of Treasuries suggest little near-term upside to yields. We therefore believe the risk of a substantial drawdown in the near term has diminished, barring unforeseen data surprises. We raise our 3-month S&P 500 price target to 4,000 (-3% from today) from 3,600. As shown this week, still-light institutional investor positioning points to the risk of a chase that would see the market temporarily overshoot our S&P 500 target of 4,000. Most of the S&P 500 have announced quarterly financial results in recent weeks, and based on what they’ve revealed, it looks like the outlook for earnings may not be as grim as previously anticipated. “[W]e see no recession ahead in the broad economy — or in earnings — but a soft landing,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said on Tuesday. “We are currently estimating that S&P 500 operating earnings will be up 4.7% this year to $225 per share and 11.1% next year to $250.” The S&P 500 is currently trading above most strategists’ year-end target for the index. Should these gains hold and perhaps improve, we could soon see some strategists revise up their targets. [Privacy Policy]( | [Advertiser Disclosure]( [Maximize your profits and beat inflation with this proven options strategy]( Are you looking for a way to protect your investments and savings from the effects of inflation? I have a solution that has consistently outperformed the market and beat inflation. I have personally seen 207% portfolio gains since January 2021, and have closed out 259 wins out of 266 trades, resulting in a win rate of 97%. This year alone, I have seen gains of 50.98%, 50.00%, 69.28%, 51.22%, 50.00%, and 50.83%. If you want to learn more about my proven strategy, I am offering a free eBook called "The Ultimate Guide to Options Income." Don't miss this opportunity to learn from a proven winner. [Click here to get your copy now.]( (By clicking the above link, you will be opting into TheoTrade) [Privacy Policy]( | [Advertiser Disclosure]( 406 Media and Silver Ridge Market Report, is not giving individualized financial advice. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. 406 Media or Silver Ridge Market Report is not giving financial, investment, or stock advice. Our content is designed for generalized informational purposes only. If you have specific questions about investments or stocks you should consult a financial advisor. Articles, News, Or Other published materials are not always the views of 406 Media and/or Silver Ridge Market Report. If you feel you are receiving these emails in error please email Support@SilverRidgePro.com or click the unsubscribe button below. 30 N Gould St, STE R, Sheridan WY 82801 This e-mail has been sent to {EMAIL}, [click here to unsubscribe](.