Morning Report: Awaiting Jerome Powell’s Speech

Vital Statistics: Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down again. Jerome Powell is set to speak today at noon EST. Here is a preview of what to expect. Higher for longer is expected to be the message, along with the surprising strength of the US economy, especially in the labor market and consumer spending. Not all agree that should me the message: “The message to give right now is the Fed is done, we are done,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Thursday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “That’s what the message should be. Whether he gives it or not, I don’t know.” Existing home sales fell 2% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million, according to NAR. This is down 15.4% from a year ago. “As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.” The median home price rose 2% compared to a year ago. The percentage of first time homebuyers fell to 27%, which is super-low. The first time homebuyer typically accounts for around 40% in a normal market. Investor home purchases increased. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell again in September, according to the Conference Board. “The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.” Home Diversification Corp. enables lenders to offer zero down, no PMI, home diversified mortgages with additional important benefit to homeowners of free home value protection. Like a VA loan for non-veterans, but much better! In addition, Home diversified mortgage credit risk at zero down is 83% lower than traditional 20% down mortgages. These claims are supported in a published article, co-authored with the leading expert on housing finance. Tremendous value is created when the homeowner diversifies their typically largest and entirely concentrated investment – their homes. We are seeking mortgage companies interested in offering this amazing, entirely differentiated new product. We are also seeking non-QM loan investors to invest in the high-volume ultra low credit risk mortgage collateral. Please contact Marc Biron at 603-493-3654 if you are interested in learning more about the opportunity, or would like to see the published article. Highlights from the Beige Book yesterday: “Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed…Labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation. Most Districts reported slight to moderate increases in overall employment, and firms were hiring less urgently. Several Districts reported improvements in hiring and retention as candidate pools have expanded and those receiving offers have been less inclined to negotiate terms of employment. However, most Districts still reported ongoing challenges in recruiting and hiring skilled tradespeople. A few highlighted that older workers are remaining in the labor force, either staying in their existing position or returning in a part-time capacity. Wage growth remained modest to moderate in most Districts…Prices continued to increase at a modest pace overall. Districts noted that input cost increases have slowed or stabilized for manufacturers but continue to rise for services sector firms. Increases in fuel costs, wages, and insurance contributed to growth in prices across Districts. Sales prices increased at a slower rate than input prices, as businesses struggled to pass along cost pressures because consumers had grown more sensitive to prices. As a result, firms struggled to maintain desired profit margins.” I am accepting ads for this blog if you would like to make an announcement, highlight something your company is offering or want more visibility. I am running a special for new clients as well. I offer white-label services which give you the ability to use this content for your own daily emails. The blog has over 5,000 followers and an open rate around 50%. Please feel free to reach out to brent@thedailytearsheet.com if you would like to discuss this further. [Image] Here are Some More Investing Tips and Resources. Enjoy! Sponsored [This Stock Could be Your Best Bet for Profiting in a Recession]( Don't wait until it's too late to protect your investments from the upcoming recession. You need to act fast, and we have the solution that will keep your portfolio afloat. Our expert team of analysts has tirelessly researched and assessed various stocks to bring you the one stock that stands above the rest. [Go HERE to Learn More]( By clicking this link you are subscribing to The Wealthiest Investor Newsletter and may receive up to 2 additional free bonus subscriptions. Unsubscribing is easy [Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( [Morning Report: Awaiting Jerome Powell’s Speech]( Vital Statistics: Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down again. Jerome Powell is set to speak today at noon EST. Here is a preview of what to expect. Higher for longer is expected to be the message, along with the surprising strength of the US economy, especially in the labor market and consumer spending. Not all agree that should me the message: “The message to give right now is the Fed is done, we are done,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Thursday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “That’s what the message should be. Whether he gives it or not, I don’t know.” Existing home sales fell 2% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million, according to NAR. This is down 15.4% from a year ago. “As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.” The median home price rose 2% compared to a year ago. The percentage of first time homebuyers fell to 27%, which is super-low. The first time homebuyer typically accounts for around 40% in a normal market. Investor home purchases increased. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell again in September, according to the Conference Board. “The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.” Home Diversification Corp. enables lenders to offer zero down, no PMI, home diversified mortgages with additional important benefit to homeowners of free home value protection. Like a VA loan for non-veterans, but much better! In addition, Home diversified mortgage credit risk at zero down is 83% lower than traditional 20% down mortgages. These claims are supported in a published article, co-authored with the leading expert on housing finance. Tremendous value is created when the homeowner diversifies their typically largest and entirely concentrated investment – their homes. We are seeking mortgage companies interested in offering this amazing, entirely differentiated new product. We are also seeking non-QM loan investors to invest in the high-volume ultra low credit risk mortgage collateral. Please contact Marc Biron at 603-493-3654 if you are interested in learning more about the opportunity, or would like to see the published article. Highlights from the Beige Book yesterday: “Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed…Labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation. Most Districts reported slight to moderate increases in overall employment, and firms were hiring less urgently. Several Districts reported improvements in hiring and retention as candidate pools have expanded and those receiving offers have been less inclined to negotiate terms of employment. However, most Districts still reported ongoing challenges in recruiting and hiring skilled tradespeople. A few highlighted that older workers are remaining in the labor force, either staying in their existing position or returning in a part-time capacity. Wage growth remained modest to moderate in most Districts…Prices continued to increase at a modest pace overall. Districts noted that input cost increases have slowed or stabilized for manufacturers but continue to rise for services sector firms. Increases in fuel costs, wages, and insurance contributed to growth in prices across Districts. Sales prices increased at a slower rate than input prices, as businesses struggled to pass along cost pressures because consumers had grown more sensitive to prices. As a result, firms struggled to maintain desired profit margins.” I am accepting ads for this blog if you would like to make an announcement, highlight something your company is offering or want more visibility. I am running a special for new clients as well. I offer white-label services which give you the ability to use this content for your own daily emails. The blog has over 5,000 followers and an open rate around 50%. Please feel free to reach out to brent@thedailytearsheet.com if you would like to discuss this further. [Continue Reading...]( [Morning Report: Awaiting Jerome Powell’s Speech]( And, in case you missed it: - [November Almanac: Historically a Top Month, But Softer in Pre-Election Years]( - [Vantagepoint Stock of the Week Frontline PLC ($FRO)]( - [A.I. for Traders: The Power of the 52-Week High/Low Boundary]( - [How To Transcend Trauma]( - [Middle East Conflict: US Dollar Gains Momentum]( - FREE OR LOW COST INVESTING RESOURCES - [i]( [i]( [i]( [i]( Sponsored [How To Extract Profits From Uncertain Markets]( The news wants to scream “doom and gloom” about the current market. Conditions feel uncertain – that’s the prevailing sentiment. But guess what? There’s NEVER any real certainty in the market. Reveal how you can take advantage of this current market. 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