Vantagepoint Stock of the Week TESLA MOTORS ($TSLA)

This week’s stock analysis is TESLA ($TSLA) We did a stock analysis on Tesla ($TSLA) on June 8, 2023. In the past 3 months $TSLA shares are up 13.8% while the S&P 500 is up only 4%. This is not a trivial detail. As goes TESLA ($TSLA), so goes the broader market. In this stock study we will review $TSLA again for an updated perspective. Tesla has been nothing short of a transformative force in the automotive industry, sparking innovation in sustainable transportation. Let’s talk about Tesla’s rise to stardom. It’s tightly woven with their unwavering commitment to electric vehicles. Back in the day, electric cars were seen as mere novelties, with limited range and lackluster performance. Enter Tesla’s Roadster, their first electric marvel. It not only had a zippy acceleration but also a range exceeding 200 miles, rewriting the rules for EVs. But what truly sets Tesla apart? It’s their relentless focus on battery technology. Gigafactories, massive battery production facilities, have been pivotal in slashing battery costs. This pursuit of efficient batteries led to the groundbreaking Model 3, a game-changer in the EV world due to its affordability. And that’s not all. Tesla isn’t just about cars; they’re a leader in energy storage solutions. Products like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack cater to homes, businesses, and utilities. These innovations allow users to harness renewable energy and store it for when it’s needed most, ensuring a constant power supply. Tesla’s prowess in energy storage has catapulted them into a dominant position in the renewable energy sector. Now, Tesla’s knack for innovation and disruption has been at the heart of its success. Their direct-to-consumer sales model challenged the traditional dealership system, and their over-the-air software updates revolutionized how cars get upgraded. Tesla’s impact goes well beyond just the auto industry, prodding competitors to hasten their own EV efforts. But let’s not forget the man behind it all – Elon Musk, Tesla’s co-founder, and CEO. He’s the face of the brand, known for his vision, determination, and sheer ambition. Musk isn’t afraid to take risks, invest heavily in research and development, and push the limits of technology. His leadership has been instrumental in Tesla’s journey to its current status. Tesla’s journey from a scrappy startup to a global powerhouse in electric vehicles and sustainable energy is nothing short of remarkable. While many are familiar with their electric cars and charismatic CEO, their contributions to battery technology, energy storage, solar energy, and autonomous driving are equally impressive. Their inclusion in major stock indices underscores their growing impact on the financial world, making Tesla a symbol of the transition to a sustainable future and a trailblazer in multiple industries. As Tesla continues to evolve and confront new challenges, its story remains one of the most captivating and transformative in modern business history. Now, let’s shift gears and talk about the here and now. Forget the endless debate about Tesla advertising – that’s not what really matters. It’s not about whether Tesla’s stock is in the green or red today or tomorrow; it’s about what Tesla is up to in the EV, energy, and A.I. sectors. So, what’s the deal? Well, the short answer is that Tesla is doing what it needs to do, albeit with a few bumps along the road. Now, if you’ve been keeping an eye on Elon Musk for a while, you’ll know that he sometimes overpromises and underdelivers, or he delivers a tad late. If that’s a sticking point for you, maybe it’s time to explore other investment avenues. At the beginning of the year Analysts proclaimed that Tesla was in trouble because they were slashing prices on their cars. While prices were reduced to move inventory, the price slashing is now being understood as visionary because the price reduction was in the face of a rising interest rate market which made it harder for vehicles to sell. Adjusting prices in response to the Model 3 revamp was a smart move – it generated a lot of buzz, potentially boosting Model X sales. Tesla’s pricing makes the competition look like amateurs. But buying a car today isn’t as straightforward as it once was, especially with interest rates hovering above 5%. Car loans aren’t a cakewalk either. So, Tesla made some strategic price cuts to get those wheels turning, even if it meant slimmer profit margins. So, here’s the deal: Tesla, to keep demand alive amid rising interest rates, has slashed prices on some of its most popular vehicles. These price reductions, ranging from 15% to 18%, have made their mark on Tesla’s bottom line as margins appear to narrow. Now, I get it – seeing those gross profit margins dip from their Q1 2022 peak to around 18% in Tesla’s recent Q2 earnings report can raise some eyebrows. Investors are understandably concerned, but maybe, just maybe, this concern is slightly misplaced. You see, Tesla’s decision to lower prices is all part of a more extensive strategy, and it could make this company a valuable long-term bet for investors. Let’s look at the bigger picture. In 2017, electric vehicles (EVs) made up just 1% of new car sales. Fast forward to 2022, and that number has surged to 13%. The demand for EVs is on the rise, and that’s bringing more competition into the picture. Tesla, once a lone wolf, is now dealing with a pack of new startups and legacy automakers trying to jump on the EV bandwagon. But let’s not kid ourselves – making a profit in the auto industry is no walk in the park. Turning a profit from EVs? Even trickier. Tesla’s price cuts are putting the squeeze on other manufacturers, especially when they’re operating on thinner margins. Moreover, don’t forget that Tesla’s sitting on more than $23 billion in cash and equivalents with practically zero burdensome debt. These price cuts are likely to put more pressure on its competitors than on Tesla itself. But there’s more to this story. Tesla is no ordinary automaker. They’ve recently set new records in production and deliveries, and even as margins have dipped, they’ve notched a new revenue record of nearly $25 billion. The magic happens when you connect the dots between record production, deliveries, revenue, and price cuts. This is where Tesla’s grand vision comes into play. By getting more of their vehicles on the road, Tesla gets closer to achieving fully autonomous driving. And let me tell you, that’s a game-changer. With the recent release of its v12 Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, Tesla claims they’ve built the infrastructure to train A.I. to learn how to drive through neural nets. It’s a big leap from the previous method, which required programmers to preconfigure code for various driving situations. With A.I., vehicles learn how to drive by analyzing video, reducing the need for manual programming. There’s still work to be done to account for the randomness that occurs on the road. But here’s the catch – price cuts aren’t just a financial strategy; they’re part of Tesla’s roadmap to reaching Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomy. At those stages, drivers no longer need to keep an eye on the road. If these price cuts indeed stimulate demand, Tesla can train AI models more efficiently with data from new cars hitting the streets. And here’s the grand finale: Tesla’s ultimate goal is to create a robo-taxi business that could redefine its income and profitability. Elon Musk, the CEO, believes there’s “quasi-infinite demand” for such a product, and analysts tend to agree. A recent simulation by Ark Invest even suggested that a robo-taxi fleet could catapult Tesla’s revenue by a staggering 700% by 2027 and make up nearly half of its future total revenue. Now, amid these less-than-ideal economic conditions affecting Tesla’s operations, one thing remains clear – the company’s strategic vision for long-term dominance is unwavering. While Wall Street may be preoccupied with short-term concerns about narrowing margins, this could be an opportune moment to consider Tesla shares at a discount relative to its long-term potential. Tesla’s financial strength and resilience position it well to weather economic turbulence – a luxury that almost none of its competitors can afford. Add to that the prospects of imminent autonomous driving and a potentially lucrative robo-taxi business, and you’ve got a company that could very well lead portfolios for years to come. Now, let’s talk about advertising. What’s the deal with ads? Well, they’re meant to boost brand recognition, drive sales, educate consumers, and more. Tesla’s has roughly 200 ads running, and let me tell you, they’re far from conventional. A Super Bowl ad? Rumors are that Tesla is considering it as part of their marketing mix, as long as it serves its primary objectives. But here’s the kicker – ads can’t do much about interest rates, which are a significant hurdle to demand. While educating folks about electric vehicles is essential, remember, Tesla isn’t the only player in town. The competition is advertising too, but are their cars flying off the shelves? Not quite. So, advertising is just one piece of the puzzle, not the entire game. In a nutshell, Tesla’s on a solid path, maneuvering the challenges of being an $800 billion behemoth. Oh, and here’s a curveball for you: Tesla’s making a comeback at the Detroit Auto Show after an eight-year hiatus. If they roll in with the new Model 3 and Cybertruck, mark my words, those cars will do all the talking. And over in China, Gigafactory Shanghai just hit a milestone – 2 million in production. But there’s a slight dip in weekly insured numbers – something we’ve seen before. Speaking of charging, Tesla’s planning to install stations at 2,000 Hilton hotels in North America. A win-win for both. And hey, with all these price cuts, the Tesla Model X now qualifies for the full $7,500 EV tax credit. The bottom line is that TESLA is making BIG things happen. Earnings are forecasted to grow by 22.1% a year. Over the past year, earnings have grown 28.6%. In this weekly stock study, we will look at and analyze the following indicators and metrics as are our guidelines which dictate our behavior in deciding whether to buy, sell, or stand aside on a particular stock. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates 52-week high and low boundaries Best Case – Worst Case Analysis and Takeaways Vantagepoint A.I. Forecast (Predictive Blue Line) Neural Network Forecast Daily Range Forecast Intermarket Analysis Our trading suggestion We don’t base our trading decisions on things like earnings or fundamental cash flow valuations. However, we do look at them to better understand the financial landscape that a company is operating under. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates Based on 29 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $272.50 with a high forecast of $400.00 and a low forecast of $120.00. The average price target represents a -0.39% change from the last price of $273.58. Analysts and traders alike see $TSLA as a very polarizing stock. Since we had reviewed TESLA 3 months ago, to provide perspective we think it is a good idea to compare Wall Street Analysts forecasts from June to those of today. They are summarized in the following graphic: What we find fascinating is that analysts have upgraded and revised their price forecasts based upon Tesla’s recent rally. The variance of the forecasts has increased markedly, indicating the greater volatility is baked into the price action. The high forecast has increased by $120.00. We are trading right at the median forecast, which has increased $73.00. Even the most bearish analyst has revised their bearishness upwards by $35.00. 52-Week High and Low Boundaries Looking at the Long-Term chart of $TSLA provides us with the 52-week high and low boundaries. Over the past year we have seen $TSLA trade as low as $101.81 and as high as $313.80. The annual trading range was $212.86. Currently, the stock is trading at the 81st percentile of its annual range. Seasoned investors, often referred to as ‘Power Traders’, will juxtapose the Wall Street Analysts’ forecasts with these broad volatility estimates, aiming to gain a comprehensive understanding of the price dynamics surrounding $TSLA. TESLA ($TSLA) 52 Week Chart When we divide the annual trading range of $211.99 into the most recent price of $273.58 we determine that the statistical volatility is 77.5%. This number tells us that it would be considered normal for $TSLA to trade 77.5% higher and/or lower over the next 52 weeks. Next, we zoom out and look at $TSLA on a 10-year monthly chart to get an idea of its longer terms trend and history. By doing so we can quickly see longer-term trends and volatility in this asset. TESLA ($TSLA) 10 Year Monthly Chart None of the Wall Street Analysts believe that $TSLA will go to new 10 Year highs in the next 12 months. We suspect that this will change should $TSLA continue moving higher and break through its recent 52-week high at $313.80. Best Case – Worst Case Scenario When we talk about assessing a trading opportunity, folks, it’s not just about crunching numbers. No, no, no. We need to get a real feel for what’s going on. You see, you can’t just look at the high points of those rallies and ignore the low points of those declines. That’s how you truly gauge an asset’s volatility in real-time. And let’s not stop there; we’ve got to compare it to the performance of the big boys in the market. Now, I’m not talking about reducing everything to cold, hard numbers. No, we need a comprehensive approach here. It’s all about looking at the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario. By digging into those charts, we can really grasp what this volatility means for potential gains or losses. When it comes to trading, we’re chasing that movement. But remember, it’s a two-way street – risks and rewards. Start by checking out those rallies and declines. That tells us if an asset can hold onto its gains. Just to give you a taste, take Tesla, ticker symbol $TSLA, with an annualized volatility of 77.5%. Now, that’s what I call a wild ride! It is worth doing this type of baseline analysis because it allows you to visually ascertain how quickly a stock drops in comparison to the speed with which it moves higher. Here is the Best-Case Analysis: [Image] Here are Some More Investing Tips and Resources. Enjoy! Sponsored [Vantagepoint Stock of the Week TESLA MOTORS ($TSLA)]( This week’s stock analysis is TESLA ($TSLA) We did a stock analysis on Tesla ($TSLA) on June 8, 2023. In the past 3 months $TSLA shares are up 13.8% while the S&P 500 is up only 4%. This is not a trivial detail. As goes TESLA ($TSLA), so goes the broader market. In this stock study we will review $TSLA again for an updated perspective. Tesla has been nothing short of a transformative force in the automotive industry, sparking innovation in sustainable transportation. Let’s talk about Tesla’s rise to stardom. It’s tightly woven with their unwavering commitment to electric vehicles. Back in the day, electric cars were seen as mere novelties, with limited range and lackluster performance. Enter Tesla’s Roadster, their first electric marvel. It not only had a zippy acceleration but also a range exceeding 200 miles, rewriting the rules for EVs. But what truly sets Tesla apart? It’s their relentless focus on battery technology. Gigafactories, massive battery production facilities, have been pivotal in slashing battery costs. This pursuit of efficient batteries led to the groundbreaking Model 3, a game-changer in the EV world due to its affordability. And that’s not all. Tesla isn’t just about cars; they’re a leader in energy storage solutions. Products like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack cater to homes, businesses, and utilities. These innovations allow users to harness renewable energy and store it for when it’s needed most, ensuring a constant power supply. Tesla’s prowess in energy storage has catapulted them into a dominant position in the renewable energy sector. Now, Tesla’s knack for innovation and disruption has been at the heart of its success. Their direct-to-consumer sales model challenged the traditional dealership system, and their over-the-air software updates revolutionized how cars get upgraded. Tesla’s impact goes well beyond just the auto industry, prodding competitors to hasten their own EV efforts. But let’s not forget the man behind it all – Elon Musk, Tesla’s co-founder, and CEO. He’s the face of the brand, known for his vision, determination, and sheer ambition. Musk isn’t afraid to take risks, invest heavily in research and development, and push the limits of technology. His leadership has been instrumental in Tesla’s journey to its current status. Tesla’s journey from a scrappy startup to a global powerhouse in electric vehicles and sustainable energy is nothing short of remarkable. While many are familiar with their electric cars and charismatic CEO, their contributions to battery technology, energy storage, solar energy, and autonomous driving are equally impressive. Their inclusion in major stock indices underscores their growing impact on the financial world, making Tesla a symbol of the transition to a sustainable future and a trailblazer in multiple industries. As Tesla continues to evolve and confront new challenges, its story remains one of the most captivating and transformative in modern business history. Now, let’s shift gears and talk about the here and now. Forget the endless debate about Tesla advertising – that’s not what really matters. It’s not about whether Tesla’s stock is in the green or red today or tomorrow; it’s about what Tesla is up to in the EV, energy, and A.I. sectors. So, what’s the deal? Well, the short answer is that Tesla is doing what it needs to do, albeit with a few bumps along the road. Now, if you’ve been keeping an eye on Elon Musk for a while, you’ll know that he sometimes overpromises and underdelivers, or he delivers a tad late. If that’s a sticking point for you, maybe it’s time to explore other investment avenues. At the beginning of the year Analysts proclaimed that Tesla was in trouble because they were slashing prices on their cars. While prices were reduced to move inventory, the price slashing is now being understood as visionary because the price reduction was in the face of a rising interest rate market which made it harder for vehicles to sell. Adjusting prices in response to the Model 3 revamp was a smart move – it generated a lot of buzz, potentially boosting Model X sales. Tesla’s pricing makes the competition look like amateurs. But buying a car today isn’t as straightforward as it once was, especially with interest rates hovering above 5%. Car loans aren’t a cakewalk either. So, Tesla made some strategic price cuts to get those wheels turning, even if it meant slimmer profit margins. So, here’s the deal: Tesla, to keep demand alive amid rising interest rates, has slashed prices on some of its most popular vehicles. These price reductions, ranging from 15% to 18%, have made their mark on Tesla’s bottom line as margins appear to narrow. Now, I get it – seeing those gross profit margins dip from their Q1 2022 peak to around 18% in Tesla’s recent Q2 earnings report can raise some eyebrows. Investors are understandably concerned, but maybe, just maybe, this concern is slightly misplaced. You see, Tesla’s decision to lower prices is all part of a more extensive strategy, and it could make this company a valuable long-term bet for investors. Let’s look at the bigger picture. In 2017, electric vehicles (EVs) made up just 1% of new car sales. Fast forward to 2022, and that number has surged to 13%. The demand for EVs is on the rise, and that’s bringing more competition into the picture. Tesla, once a lone wolf, is now dealing with a pack of new startups and legacy automakers trying to jump on the EV bandwagon. But let’s not kid ourselves – making a profit in the auto industry is no walk in the park. Turning a profit from EVs? Even trickier. Tesla’s price cuts are putting the squeeze on other manufacturers, especially when they’re operating on thinner margins. Moreover, don’t forget that Tesla’s sitting on more than $23 billion in cash and equivalents with practically zero burdensome debt. These price cuts are likely to put more pressure on its competitors than on Tesla itself. But there’s more to this story. Tesla is no ordinary automaker. They’ve recently set new records in production and deliveries, and even as margins have dipped, they’ve notched a new revenue record of nearly $25 billion. The magic happens when you connect the dots between record production, deliveries, revenue, and price cuts. This is where Tesla’s grand vision comes into play. By getting more of their vehicles on the road, Tesla gets closer to achieving fully autonomous driving. And let me tell you, that’s a game-changer. With the recent release of its v12 Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, Tesla claims they’ve built the infrastructure to train A.I. to learn how to drive through neural nets. It’s a big leap from the previous method, which required programmers to preconfigure code for various driving situations. With A.I., vehicles learn how to drive by analyzing video, reducing the need for manual programming. There’s still work to be done to account for the randomness that occurs on the road. But here’s the catch – price cuts aren’t just a financial strategy; they’re part of Tesla’s roadmap to reaching Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomy. At those stages, drivers no longer need to keep an eye on the road. If these price cuts indeed stimulate demand, Tesla can train AI models more efficiently with data from new cars hitting the streets. And here’s the grand finale: Tesla’s ultimate goal is to create a robo-taxi business that could redefine its income and profitability. Elon Musk, the CEO, believes there’s “quasi-infinite demand” for such a product, and analysts tend to agree. A recent simulation by Ark Invest even suggested that a robo-taxi fleet could catapult Tesla’s revenue by a staggering 700% by 2027 and make up nearly half of its future total revenue. Now, amid these less-than-ideal economic conditions affecting Tesla’s operations, one thing remains clear – the company’s strategic vision for long-term dominance is unwavering. While Wall Street may be preoccupied with short-term concerns about narrowing margins, this could be an opportune moment to consider Tesla shares at a discount relative to its long-term potential. Tesla’s financial strength and resilience position it well to weather economic turbulence – a luxury that almost none of its competitors can afford. Add to that the prospects of imminent autonomous driving and a potentially lucrative robo-taxi business, and you’ve got a company that could very well lead portfolios for years to come. Now, let’s talk about advertising. What’s the deal with ads? Well, they’re meant to boost brand recognition, drive sales, educate consumers, and more. Tesla’s has roughly 200 ads running, and let me tell you, they’re far from conventional. A Super Bowl ad? Rumors are that Tesla is considering it as part of their marketing mix, as long as it serves its primary objectives. But here’s the kicker – ads can’t do much about interest rates, which are a significant hurdle to demand. While educating folks about electric vehicles is essential, remember, Tesla isn’t the only player in town. The competition is advertising too, but are their cars flying off the shelves? Not quite. So, advertising is just one piece of the puzzle, not the entire game. In a nutshell, Tesla’s on a solid path, maneuvering the challenges of being an $800 billion behemoth. Oh, and here’s a curveball for you: Tesla’s making a comeback at the Detroit Auto Show after an eight-year hiatus. If they roll in with the new Model 3 and Cybertruck, mark my words, those cars will do all the talking. And over in China, Gigafactory Shanghai just hit a milestone – 2 million in production. But there’s a slight dip in weekly insured numbers – something we’ve seen before. Speaking of charging, Tesla’s planning to install stations at 2,000 Hilton hotels in North America. A win-win for both. And hey, with all these price cuts, the Tesla Model X now qualifies for the full $7,500 EV tax credit. The bottom line is that TESLA is making BIG things happen. Earnings are forecasted to grow by 22.1% a year. Over the past year, earnings have grown 28.6%. In this weekly stock study, we will look at and analyze the following indicators and metrics as are our guidelines which dictate our behavior in deciding whether to buy, sell, or stand aside on a particular stock. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates 52-week high and low boundaries Best Case – Worst Case Analysis and Takeaways Vantagepoint A.I. Forecast (Predictive Blue Line) Neural Network Forecast Daily Range Forecast Intermarket Analysis Our trading suggestion We don’t base our trading decisions on things like earnings or fundamental cash flow valuations. However, we do look at them to better understand the financial landscape that a company is operating under. Wall Street Analysts’ Estimates Based on 29 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $272.50 with a high forecast of $400.00 and a low forecast of $120.00. The average price target represents a -0.39% change from the last price of $273.58. Analysts and traders alike see $TSLA as a very polarizing stock. Since we had reviewed TESLA 3 months ago, to provide perspective we think it is a good idea to compare Wall Street Analysts forecasts from June to those of today. They are summarized in the following graphic: What we find fascinating is that analysts have upgraded and revised their price forecasts based upon Tesla’s recent rally. The variance of the forecasts has increased markedly, indicating the greater volatility is baked into the price action. The high forecast has increased by $120.00. We are trading right at the median forecast, which has increased $73.00. Even the most bearish analyst has revised their bearishness upwards by $35.00. 52-Week High and Low Boundaries Looking at the Long-Term chart of $TSLA provides us with the 52-week high and low boundaries. Over the past year we have seen $TSLA trade as low as $101.81 and as high as $313.80. The annual trading range was $212.86. Currently, the stock is trading at the 81st percentile of its annual range. Seasoned investors, often referred to as ‘Power Traders’, will juxtapose the Wall Street Analysts’ forecasts with these broad volatility estimates, aiming to gain a comprehensive understanding of the price dynamics surrounding $TSLA. TESLA ($TSLA) 52 Week Chart When we divide the annual trading range of $211.99 into the most recent price of $273.58 we determine that the statistical volatility is 77.5%. This number tells us that it would be considered normal for $TSLA to trade 77.5% higher and/or lower over the next 52 weeks. Next, we zoom out and look at $TSLA on a 10-year monthly chart to get an idea of its longer terms trend and history. By doing so we can quickly see longer-term trends and volatility in this asset. TESLA ($TSLA) 10 Year Monthly Chart None of the Wall Street Analysts believe that $TSLA will go to new 10 Year highs in the next 12 months. We suspect that this will change should $TSLA continue moving higher and break through its recent 52-week high at $313.80. Best Case – Worst Case Scenario When we talk about assessing a trading opportunity, folks, it’s not just about crunching numbers. No, no, no. We need to get a real feel for what’s going on. You see, you can’t just look at the high points of those rallies and ignore the low points of those declines. That’s how you truly gauge an asset’s volatility in real-time. And let’s not stop there; we’ve got to compare it to the performance of the big boys in the market. Now, I’m not talking about reducing everything to cold, hard numbers. No, we need a comprehensive approach here. It’s all about looking at the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario. By digging into those charts, we can really grasp what this volatility means for potential gains or losses. When it comes to trading, we’re chasing that movement. But remember, it’s a two-way street – risks and rewards. Start by checking out those rallies and declines. That tells us if an asset can hold onto its gains. Just to give you a taste, take Tesla, ticker symbol $TSLA, with an annualized volatility of 77.5%. Now, that’s what I call a wild ride! It is worth doing this type of baseline analysis because it allows you to visually ascertain how quickly a stock drops in comparison to the speed with which it moves higher. Here is the Best-Case Analysis: [Continue Reading...]( [Vantagepoint Stock of the Week TESLA MOTORS ($TSLA)]( And, in case you missed it: - [Investing in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)]( - [Gold: The Shining Star or a Fading Glitter? 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