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It?s bad enough that Joe Biden is the worst president in US history? | Who Watches the Watchmen?
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It’s bad enough that Joe Biden is the worst president in US history… [Morning Reckoning] February 29, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Who Watches the Watchmen? Asti, Northern Italy
February 29, 2024 [Sean Ring] SEAN
RING Good morning Reader, It’s bad enough that Joe Biden is the worst president in US history. That Antony Blinken is a terrible Secretary of State makes matters worse. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin can’t be bothered to clock in nowadays. Attorney General Merrick Garland leaves no impression he’d have been a great SCOTUS justice, seeing his Department of Justice isn’t worthy of its name. And due in no small part to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the world is on fire. But Janet Yellen? My goodness, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen takes the cake. Yellen went to Harvard at a time when Harvard didn’t embarrass itself. She’s got a PhD in Economics. Yellen is married to George Akerloff, a Nobel laureate in Economics. Their son, Robert, is an associate professor of economics at the University of Warwick in England. Yellen was the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Slick Willie Clinton. Heck, she was the Fed Chairman before Jay Powell. Yellen says Akerlof has been her most significant intellectual influence. Their only disagreement is on free trade. (She’s freer than he is.) Usually, I’d say, “Aw… What a nice old couple!” But I find it alarming when it comes to these two. It’s bad enough that she favors an unenforceable [global minimum tax](. And Yellen was plain awful earlier this month when she blurted out, “We don't have to get the prices down. Wages are going up." That was at a [Senate Banking Committee hearing on the higher prices]( for many goods purchased by Americans. But this last one is the icing on the idiot cake. [Janet Yellen wants to steal $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.]( [ Strange and Powerful AI Project Revealed]( Jim Rickards was recently passed some urgent new intelligence involving a $10 million A.I. project … That could have a massive and direct impact on your life. Everything you need to know is in this 2-minute AI briefing . [Click here to play his urgent message now.]( [LEARN MORE]( Thou Shalt Not Steal I mean, it’s right there. Commandment Number Seven (if you’re Catholic). It’s Number Eight if you’re Jewish like Janet is. “Thou shalt not steal.” Of course, I know you’re a moral person, so I won’t go through any ethics lessons on why stealing is wrong. You know it is. I know it is. But The State and its parasites often excuse it and themselves from following “normal morality.” That is, if The State does it, it’s okay. (We know things like slavery and mass murder are unacceptable. The State often overlooks such middle class mores.) But stealing is wrong, even, or especially, when The State does it. Whether it’s the IRS, eminent domain, or civil asset forfeiture, we can barely contain our righteous rage when The State coerces us. And that’s just the domestic level. At the international level, coercion - or, in this case, confiscation - has geometric reverberations. Who Watches the Watchmen? The phrase "Who watches the watchmen?" originates from the Roman poet Juvenal, from his Satires. In Latin, the original phrase is Quis custodiet ipsos custodes, which translates to "Who will guard the guards themselves?" This concept delves into oversight and accountability, questioning who monitors those in positions of power to prevent abuse or corruption. The significance of this phrase extends beyond its literary origins. It resonates with contemporary issues related to governance, law enforcement, and oversight mechanisms. In the context of the US government overseeing the US dollar, this question becomes pertinent. It highlights the importance of effective oversight to ensure transparency, prevent misconduct, and maintain trust in financial systems. If Yellen is successful in stealing Russia’s stuff, trust in the US economic system will be eviscerated. Oversight of the US Dollar by the US Government The US government's oversight of the US dollar involves a complex interplay of economic policies, regulations, and institutions aimed at maintaining stability and trust in the currency. This oversight is crucial for ensuring that the dollar's value remains stable, inflation is controlled, and economic growth is sustained. The Federal Reserve plays a central role in this oversight by implementing monetary policy decisions that impact the dollar's value. Evading Government Oversight Countries may attempt to evade US government oversight through various means, especially in economic matters related to currencies like the US dollar. The big fear for the US is that some entity like BRICS successfully establish an alternative financial system to circumvent US regulations and monitoring. If the USD Loses Its Place If the US dollar loses its reserve currency status, the implications for the US citizenry could be profound and multifaceted. The reserve currency status of the US dollar has historically provided the United States with significant economic advantages, including lower borrowing costs and a strong demand for US financial assets. However, a loss of this status could lead to several adverse outcomes. Economic Implications Depreciation of the Dollar: A loss of reserve status likely leads to a significant decline in global demand for the US dollar, causing its value to depreciate. This depreciation would reduce the dollar's purchasing power, making imports more expensive and leading to inflation within the United States. Impact on Savings and Investments: The value of savings and investments tied to the dollar would decrease as the currency's value falls. This includes stocks, bonds, and retirement accounts denominated in US dollars. Increased Borrowing Costs: The US government and American businesses have benefited from low borrowing costs due to the high demand for US dollar-denominated assets. Losing reserve currency status will increase interest rates, as creditors would demand a higher rate of return for the risk they’re taking, making it more expensive for the government and businesses to borrow money. Social and Political Implications Reduced Standard of Living: Inflation, higher borrowing costs, and potential economic disruptions would evaporate the middle and lower classes. The cost of living could increase, while wages wouldn’t keep pace, making it harder for individuals and families to afford necessities. Increased Economic Inequality: The negative economic impacts of losing reserve currency status could disproportionately affect lower and middle-income households, exacerbating economic inequality. Those with significant assets in physical gold, silver, or other non-dollar-denominated assets would be less affected, creating a wider wealth gap. Geopolitical Shifts: The loss of the dollar's reserve status could also lead to shifts in global power dynamics. Other countries or currency blocs could gain influence at the expense of the United States, leading to changes in international relations and trade agreements. Wrap Up The question "Who watches the watchmen?" raises fundamental concerns about accountability and oversight, particularly in critical areas like government control over currencies like the US dollar. Trust is critical; no one will trust a guard who loots the store. If the USD loses its reserve currency status, the consequences are too great and terrible to imagine. Oppose Yellen’s idiocy with all your might. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring
Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning
feedback@dailyreckoning.com
X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( [Famed A.I. Expert "Do This By March 8th"]( [Click here to learn more]( Genius investor James Altucher is predicting between now and March 8, a new generation of A.I. will create a brief "wealth window" in America. It could make crypto look like pocket change... [Click here for all the details ]( [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Traders Wanted. Losers Welcome. Greg Guenthner, Editor [Greg Guenthner] GREG
GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. But if this adage is accurate, shouldn’t most investors buy a one-way ticket to their local looney bin? Perhaps this is an insensitive comment. Let me clarify: I don’t really believe all investors are nuts. Even if they were, I’m pretty sure most of the country’s mental asylums shuttered decades ago. Since no more padded rooms are available, retail investors will just have to retreat back to their basement offices to read 10-Qs, download analyst reports, or whatever else they might be doing to pass the time while their stocks sink deeper into the abyss. Whoops! There I go again. I should probably quit ripping on these poor souls, especially since I used to consider myself a member of this not-so-exclusive club. I began my stock market journey much like everyone else, attempting to find some sort of profitable edge through fundamental research. After all, Isn’t this what we’re taught by the wise fund managers and economics professors who came before us? Before we invest in a company, we need to know what it does, who its customers are, how much money it makes, various valuation metrics, and its plans for future growth. We need to dig into news articles, analyst ratings, earnings statements, and call transcripts. The more you know, the more money you’ll make! Except this isn’t entirely true. If you’re lucky, you’ll soon realize what I discovered all those years ago… No matter how much you research a stock, no amount of fundamental information will pinpoint the best time to buy or sell. This is where technical analysis comes into play. It shifts your attention away from the obscure to the relevant, forcing you to focus on the forces behind the market movements that consistently perplex most investors. More importantly, technical analysis brings the one critical component into focus that can profoundly impact your returns: timing. Once I started to understand the true forces powering the markets, I began my evolution from investor to trader. It was a long process learning the ins and outs of classical charting, technical analysis, and behavioral finance – not to mention the countless hours of real-world market experience. When it comes to trading, putting your money on the line in the markets is the best teacher. As my knowledge and experience grew, I would talk trading with anyone who would listen. By now, I’m sure you’ve read many of my notes where I claim that thinking like a trader can change your life. Unfortunately, I’ve learned that not everyone is ready to dive down the rabbit hole and abandon their long-held beliefs. They’d much rather stick with what they know, despite seeing the same results over and over again. Maybe these folks are onto something. Why fix something, even if it’s broken? Just keep losing. Stay on the same path. Keep those returns predictably mediocre! Here are a few more reasons you should avoid beginning your own trader’s journey: You’re going to regret all the time you used to spend on fundamental research. I spent way too much time at the beginning of my career trying to figure out the fundamental research that would give me some sort of a repeatable edge in the markets. Looking back, I don’t even think this endeavor is possible – even for investors much smarter than me. If I had put those hours to better use learning market mechanics – why stocks go up and down – I’d have found success much earlier. If you never adapt or learn these important trading skills, you won’t have to deal with this kind of regret. Instead, your returns will roughly match the ebb and flow of the markets (if you’re lucky). Becoming a trader will alienate your friends and family. Once you develop some consistency, you’re not going to be as interested or engaged in the financial noise machine. You’ll start to see through the hype and approach earnings and economic announcements with a skeptical eye. You also won’t have as many opinions to share on news events that supposedly move the markets. This change in behavior will irk your investing buddies. They’ll think you’ve lost your mind or fallen under the spell of some strange stock market voodoo when you have nothing to add to a discussion about producer prices or Peloton earnings. Traders have no one to blame but themselves. You don’t need much to trade. It’s just you, your computer, and an internet connection. You might want to invest in a big monitor and a standing desk (if you’re feeling fancy). But even a tablet and your favorite chair will work just fine. The stock market won’t judge. Your winning and losing trades will pay out the same no matter what. But this also means you’ll spend a lot of time by yourself. That’s great if you hate meetings and dread office small talk. On the flip side, this arrangement is not-so-great when it comes to accountability and idea generation. You might find that you have trouble consistently finding the best setups or sticking with your trading plans. You might also find that you occasionally need some encouragement when the market isn’t cooperating or you feel like you’re underperforming. Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner
Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning
feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Sean Ring] [Sean Ring, CAIA, FRM and CMT]( is a former banker and financial educator and is the editor of the Rude Awakening. Sean has trained interns and graduates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Standard Chartered Bank, DBS (Singapore), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Bank Indonesia (the central bank), HSBC, Barclays, RBS, and BlackRock. He knows the global economy is being corrupted by forces that most people can't understand and has used his unique and worldly experiences to help people navigate the markets. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗
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