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Predicting Crypto’s Next Big Hit

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Mon, Feb 19, 2024 09:30 PM

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Where data science meets money. | There are several blockchains working to scale enough to support t

Where data science meets money. [Altucher Confidential] February 19, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( There are several blockchains working to scale enough to support these prediction markets. But only ONE will dominate. [Hero_Image] Predicting Crypto’s Next Big Hit AI is on a tear 📈 … Crypto is h-o-t🔥... Our resident tech and AI expert, James Altucher, recently sat down with Sean Ring of The Rude Awakening in Las Vegas to talk all things crypto and AI (and chess!?). Sign up for our SMS list today, and we’ll send this can’t-miss interview straight to your phone- FOR FREE! [Click here now](. [Chris Campbell] CHRIS CAMPBELL Dear Reader, Reporting from Prospera, Honduras… Pop-up cities like [Vitalia]( here in Honduras create infinite opportunities for idea sex… Especially when they merge several exponential technologies into one place. One of the most intriguing -- if only because it’s practical and easily attainable -- is the rise of “micro prediction markets.” They have been mentioned many times in passing here on the island, and they’re an idea whose time has come. To put it simply: Micro prediction markets are like betting games where people guess the outcome of future events, from sports matches to political elections. Imagine a group of friends predicting whether it will rain tomorrow and placing bets on their guesses. The idea is that when many people make such bets, the most common bet can often predict the outcome pretty accurately. This works because each person brings their little piece of information or intuition to the table, and when you add all those pieces together, you get a clearer picture of what might happen. BUT While traditionally used just for sports betting or political predictions… They could act as a way to quickly turn the constant deluge of data on the Internet into practical, usable information. Robin Hanson, who spoke here at Vitalia, offered this idea: [Markets for telling CEOs to Step Down.]( The short version: Corporations face challenges in holding CEOs accountable, leading to potential mismanagement and harm to shareholder value. But what if there was a market that could signal shareholder dissatisfaction? Essentially, shareholders would vote if they think the stock price would go up or down if the CEO left. This signal is valuable information to a company and is part of a broader idea Hanson calls [“policy markets.”]( In Hanson’s words: “This market has many advantages over alternative ways of generating consensus estimates on policy questions. It would be precise and continuously updated, relatively cheap to create, and would be open to contributions from anyone, regardless of how articulate they are, what degrees they have, or whether they look good on TV. And anyone who claimed that the market price was a poor estimate could be subject to the challenge: ‘Put up or shut up’; they should expect to make money by trading and helping to correct this estimate.” This Man Is Changing Lives Daily [James Altucher]( He’s not a celebrity, an angel investor, or a billionaire... He’s a chartered market technician who has quickly become one of the most successful traders across the entire financial publishing industry… He’s trading with regular people... And he’s ready to teach you the strategy that helped him turn a $40,000 model portfolio into $266,894 in two years… A 567% return that has permanently cemented him as one of the industry’s top traders. [Click here to reveal his identity.]( Why They Work Micro prediction markets work due to the “wisdom of the crowd.” On average, we see that large groups of people can make predictions more accurately than individuals, even experts, because the group collectively has a vast and diverse amount of knowledge and perspectives. Also, it helps when there’s money at stake. When people bet their own money on outcomes, they're more likely to seriously consider their choices, leading to more thoughtful and informed predictions. These markets could help investors separate wheat from the chaff… builders get a better idea of what the market needs… and businesses figure out if they’re steering the boat in the right direction. How They Work First, a market is created for a specific future event, like the outcome of an election. People buy shares in the outcome they believe will happen. The price of these shares changes based on supply and demand—more popular outcomes cost more to bet on. Once the event occurs, the market settles. If you bet on the winning outcome, you get paid; if not, you lose your stake. Prices in these markets represent the probability of each outcome, as determined by the collective wisdom of the participants. If a share is trading at $0.60, it suggests a 60% probability, in the eyes of the market participants, that the event will happen. Here’s a few successful examples: → University of Iowa has been running prediction markets for decades to predict election outcomes. They've often been more accurate than traditional polls. → The Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) lets users bet on the commercial success of movies. It’s been remarkably accurate in prediction box office hits. → Before it closed, Intrade was another popular platform that allowed betting on a wide range of events, including political outcomes, and was noted for its accuracy in several key elections. Why Crypto is Essential Using crypto for micro prediction markets offers a ton of advantages over traditional currencies and systems. → Decentralization can make markets more resistant to censorship and manipulation, ensuring a fair and transparent system. → Many blockchains can now handle microtransactions, lowering the transaction costs of betting down to virtual nil. → Cryptocurrencies are accessible worldwide, allowing anyone with an internet connection to participate, regardless of their location or the restrictions of their local banking system. → Smart contracts can execute transactions, distribute winnings, and ensure compliance with the market rules without human intervention, increasing efficiency and trust. → Participants may value the ability to make predictions and transactions without revealing their identity, especially in markets related to sensitive or controversial topics. And consider these non-obvious use cases: Some Non-Obvious Use Cases Now, consider if these micro prediction markets went mainstream. We could begin to leverage the wisdom of the crowd in ways that were previously impossible. For example: Imagine micro prediction markets where participants bet on the likelihood of various scientific theories being proven or disproven within a certain timeframe. This could not only direct public attention and funding towards promising research areas but also help prioritize scientific inquiries based on collective wisdom and insights from a diverse set of thinkers. Also… Beyond box office predictions, crypto prediction markets could predict upcoming trends in music, fashion, and entertainment. These markets could influence the production of content, guiding creators towards themes and styles that resonate with future audiences, based on the aggregated predictions of market participants. And what about markets focused on predicting the next big innovation hotspots? This could guide investors and entrepreneurs to emerging technologies and sectors and resources could be allocated more efficiently in emerging tech. Companies could employ internal prediction markets to forecast project completion times, identify potential bottlenecks, and gauge employee sentiment about workplace initiatives. (This is already happening in many big tech companies, but crypto could supercharge it for teams both huge and tiny.) The Big Opportunity There are several blockchains working to scale enough to support these prediction markets. But market dynamics is centripetal in the long run -- one blockchain will likely dominate. James and I are currently exploring this and many other opportunities in our Early Stage Crypto Investor research. [Click here to see James talk about what we’re planning in 2024.]( (And why NOW is the time to get in.) Stay tuned for more. Until next time, [Chris Campbell] Chris Campbell For Altucher Confidential Urgent Note From James – Response Requested By 2/20 @ midnight [James Altucher]( Hey, it’s James. [I just made a massive change to my Altucher’s Investment Network newsletter.]( This is one of the biggest changes to a newsletter in the history of our business… As far as I know, nothing like it has ever been done before. What’s going on? In short, I’m adding 3 brand-new benefits to this all-new “Pro level” of Altucher’s Investment Network. And as one of my readers, I’d hate to see you left behind. That’s why – for a very limited time, until the timer below hits 0 – [you’ll be able to upgrade your current subscription to this new “Pro level” by clicking here.]( [Click here to learn more]( [Seriously. Just click here now to see how to claim your upgrade.]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Altucher Confidential e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Altucher Confidential, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@altucherconfidential.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Altucher Confidential is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Altucher Confidential subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Altucher Confidential.](

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