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Inflation Won’t Die

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Tue, Feb 13, 2024 11:51 PM

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Wall Street Freaks Out | Inflation Won?t Die Portsmouth, New Hampshire JIM RICKARDS Dear Reader, T

Wall Street Freaks Out [The Daily Reckoning] February 13, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Inflation Won’t Die Portsmouth, New Hampshire [Jim Rickards] JIM RICKARDS Dear Reader, The January inflation numbers came out this morning, and they weren’t good for Wall Street. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.1% in January. That’s a decrease from December’s 3.4%, but it exceeded consensus estimates of 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.9% on an annualized basis, which is unchanged from December. But the consensus estimate was 3.7%. Core inflation also rose at its highest rate since April 2023. Here I want to make an important point about core inflation. From the point of view of everyday Americans, core inflation is nonsense. Gas in the car, home heating and food on the table are large parts of the total spending of most Americans. Taking them out of the inflation calculation is something only the eggheads would do. When Americans provide for their families, they don’t pay “core,” they pay regular CPI. That’s all you need to know when it comes to public policy, citizens’ well-being and (for politicians) how people will vote. For the record, 3.9% inflation cuts the value of the dollar in half in 18 years. Sorry, Wall Street — No “Pivot” The stock market threw a temper tantrum once the inflation news broke this morning, with all three major averages tanking. By the end of the day, the Dow lost 661 points, while the S&P lost 90 and the Nasdaq lost 350. But the good news for Wall Street is that today’s inflation data won’t cause the Fed to raise rates. In the Fed’s December meeting, Jay Powell essentially confirmed that the Fed had reached what they call the “terminal rate.” The terminal rate is defined as a rate that’s high enough to bring inflation down on its own without further rate hikes. By the way, a terminal rate is an invention by the Fed. There is no discussion of terminal rates in economic literature, and it’s not something the Fed has ever used as a policy tool. The Fed just made it up. But the Fed believes in it. So Wall Street can at least be thankful that the Fed is done raising rates. But today’s report also signaled to the Fed that inflation remains an issue, and that its ideal 2% target remains elusive. [The Biblical Reckoning has arrived Genesis 47:15]( [Click here for more...]( In his 2011 book Currency Wars… Jim Rickards issued a warning that came from the book of Genesis… One that could spell an economic reckoning of biblical proportions. Now it looks like that prediction is starting to come true. And you may not have long to prepare. That’s why Jim published a major update to that warning… To tell you exactly what he recommends you do next. [Click Here To View It Now]( Inflation and the Economy What does inflation indicate for the real economy outside of Wall Street? It’s hard to say. Inflation is meaningful on its own, but it has no correlation to the business cycle. In the early 1960s, we had low inflation and strong growth. In the late 1970s, we had high inflation and weak growth. In the late 1990s, we had moderate inflation and strong growth. In the 2010s, we had low inflation and low growth. Does anyone see a correlation there? There isn’t one. Growth and inflation are empirically uncorrelated. We can agree that inflation is bad, but inflation tells us nothing about the prospects for growth. At any rate, you can basically rule out a March rate cut. The Wall Street crowd who’s been waiting for the Fed to “pivot” will have to keep waiting. After today’s report, the market’s giving just 8.5% odds that the Fed will cut rates next month. Having said all that, today’s report doesn’t come as a surprise to me. As I said almost a month ago, “Is inflation over? Actually, no. And it may be getting worse.” (I'll be going live tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET as part of the Zero Hedge debate series on the future of the U.S. dollar. If you want to check it out, [go here]( to learn how.) Inflation Is Often out of the Fed’s Control Inflation can increase on its own for reasons that have nothing to do with Fed policy. Supply chain disruptions, economic sanctions, pandemics and demographics are all examples of factors that can drive inflation higher or lower regardless of the Fed. The first flaw in the model-based forecasts is the failure of analysts to distinguish between inflation that emerges from the supply side and that which emerges from the demand side. The difference is crucial from a forecasting perspective. The inflation of 2021–2023 was real but it was caused by supply chain bottlenecks and shortages of critical goods and industrial inputs. The supply chain disruptions were exacerbated by unprecedented economic and financial sanctions because of the war in Ukraine. This kind of supply-side inflation tends to be self-negating. The high prices cause reduced demand, which in turn tends to lower prices. We’re seeing this every day starting at the gas pump where the record high prices of the summer of 2022 have come down significantly (although still higher than 2021). [Response Requested 1/1000th of an ounce of gold available for you]( As a reader of The Daily Reckoning, Jim Rickards is offering you 1/1000th of an ounce of gold when you upgrade your account. It will come in the form of a “Gold Back” - a new type of gold currency that’s starting to spread across America. If you have not responded to Jim’s offer yet, and want to know how to claim yours… Please click the link below for details. [Claim Your New Gold Back Currency Here]( The Psychology of Inflation The second flaw in the models is the failure to understand the process by which inflation can shift from the supply side to the demand side if inflation persists long enough. This is a change in the psychology of consumers and plays out in behavioral responses. Neither the psychology nor the behavior is accounted for by standard models. If inflationary psychology takes hold in the general public, it can feed on itself despite recession and declining real wages. The models don’t show this but history does. This is exactly what happened in the 1970s. Even in periods of economic stress, consumers respond to inflation in ways that make sense. They accelerate purchases because they expect prices to rise further. If you look at the data since June, you’ll see that inflation isn’t actually going down; it’s stuck in a range of 3.0–3.7%. Some months are higher in the range than others, but none is lower. Inflation is stuck and the January data doesn’t change that. The Fed and the Phillips Curve Where do these inflation numbers leave us? Again, it appears that inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target will persist for some months. The Fed likely blames persistent inflation on the low unemployment rate (3.7%). But one of the biggest failures in the Fed reading of economic signals relates to unemployment and inflation. The Fed considers low unemployment to be a sign of economic strength and a source of inflation. The idea that low unemployment leads to inflation (which is what links the Fed’s obsessions with unemployment and inflation) is an artifact of the discredited Phillips curve beloved by Bernanke and Yellen and adhered to by Powell on the bad advice of Fed economists. So the Fed is almost certainly misreading the economy because of its faith in faulty models like the Phillips curve. In terms of inflation, the political implications for Joe Biden are strongly negative. He’ll definitely be blamed for the inflation of the past three years. Even if inflation is much lower by Election Day, Biden will be tarnished with the legacy of three years of price increases (I won’t get into how his cognitive decline will impact the election today). Remember, lower inflation does not mean price declines; it just means prices are going up but at a slower rate. The damage of price increases from 2021–2023 is embedded in current price levels and will not go away. They could ultimately get Trump elected. Regards, Jim Rickards for The Daily Reckoning [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com) P.S. I’m not in the habit of making biblical references. But if you want evidence that we’re living in the monetary end times… Then you might want to look at [this.]( Some people believe the Apocalypse from Revelation could be playing out in the Middle East right now. But I believe monetary Apocalypse is going to start right here — with [this dire warning from Genesis.]( If events play out as I fear, your money and your livelihood are at stake. If you haven’t taken the two actions I recommend [here]( to defend your wealth yet, I suggest you do so now. Because once this monetary apocalypse hits, it could already be too late. I don’t want to sound like a scaremonger. But even if I’m wrong, it can’t hurt to be prepared. It can only help. [Click here to see what I see coming, and the two actions I recommend you take...]( Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com) [Jim Rickards] [James G. Rickards]( is the editor of Strategic Intelligence. He is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He is the author of The New York Times bestsellers Currency Wars and The Death of Money. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. The Daily Reckoning is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your The Daily Reckoning subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting The Daily Reckoning.](

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