UniParty's Cognitive Dissonance Over Russia

Even the MSM is picking up the Russia recovery story. [The Rude Awakening] January 31, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( UniParty's Cognitive Dissonance Over Russia [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Winston Churchill famously said, “When you’re going through hell, keep going.” But that aphorism doesn’t apply to lost causes. There’s a time to quit, a time to burn the bridge. But for some reason - it’s probably “face” - the USG won’t walk away from the Ukrainian morass it needlessly got itself into. When I hopped on to X this morning, I saw this post: [Mark Warner Tweet ] Credit: [@MarkWarner]( Yes, that’s your friendly neighborhood Senator from the Commonwealth of Virginia posting from an alternate timeline. There, the war is over, and the US… I mean, Ukraine… is on the cusp of victory. But right after I read that, I scrolled down barely a screen and read this: [headline ] Credit: [ft.com]( They both can’t be right. And, of course, they’re not. [Offer Pending: Please confirm your address…]( Your name is on a list of people eligible to claim the [“most dangerous book in America.”]( We with only 500 copies left, we may run out of stock soon. So, here’s how to claim your copy: - [Click this link]( watch Jim's short message.]( - Review your account information. - Confirm you’d like to accept Jim’s offer. And I’ll get your copy of the most dangerous book in the mail right away. [Simply click here and learn how to claim your copy.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Russia’s Robustness From the Eurocrat mouthpiece known as the [Financial Times]( (bolds mine): Russia’s economy will expand much more rapidly this year than previously expected, according to the IMF, as President Vladimir Putin’s military spending feeds through into wider growth. Gross domestic product is forecast to rise 2.6 percent this year, more than double the pace the IMF predicted as recently as October, and slightly slower than the 3 percent expansion estimated for 2023. The Russian upgrade, by 1.5 percentage points, is the largest for any economy featured in an update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday. The figures will raise fresh questions over the effectiveness of multiple rounds of Western sanctions aimed at depressing the fiscal revenues harvested by the Kremlin to finance its war in Ukraine. The Rude warned about these idiotic sanctions many times, [most notably here](. The [FT]( continues: The IMF’s prediction paints a stronger picture of the Russian economy’s immediate outlook than even the Kremlin’s own forecasters. Russia’s conservative central bank forecasted growth of just 0.5-1.5 percent in 2024 last November, a drop from 2.2-2.7 percent in 2023. The more bullish economy ministry has said growth in 2023 may reach 3.5 percent but expects a smaller rise of 2.3 percent this year. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said the new projections remained “somewhat preliminary” as the fund’s economists attempted to validate Russian statistics. “It is definitely the case that the Russian economy has been doing better than we were expecting and many others were expecting,” he told the Financial Times in an interview. This could be explained by the strong stimulus provided by government spending in the Russian “war economy,” he said. Firm commodity prices were helping to hold up fossil fuel-related export revenues and were an important contributor to overall activity. Besides that, it’s clear Senator Warner has the wrong end of the stick. Russia isn’t out of bullets. It’s fully armed with an economy thriving beyond Pooty Poot’s dreams. But as Goebbels is reputed to have said, “Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.” America’s The One Out of Ammo Not only is America - and NATO - out of ammo, it’s paying dearly to have it replaced. David Sacks posted on X yesterday an unintentionally comical commentary on a Reuters article titled, “[NATO signs 1.1 billion euro contract for 155mm artillery ammunition]( First, the substance of the piece (bolds mine): BRUSSELS, Jan 23 (Reuters) - NATO signed a 1.1 billion euro ($1.2 billion) contract for hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds on Tuesday, some of which will be supplied to Ukraine after Kyiv complained of ammunition shortages. "The war in Ukraine has become a battle of ammunition," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters after a signing ceremony at the Western military alliance's headquarters in Brussels. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said last week a shortage of ammunition, which he described as "shell hunger," was a big problem for Kyiv's troops nearly two years after Russia's full-scale invasion. The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) struck the deal on behalf of several allies who will either pass on the shells to Ukraine or use them to stock up their own depleted inventories. The article continued: A NATO official identified the buyers as Belgium, Lithuania, and Spain, which pooled together to benefit from the lower prices ensured by buying in bulk. The contract is likely to yield about 220,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, with the first deliveries expected at the end of 2025, the official told Reuters. The shells will be supplied by French arms maker Nexter and Germany's Junghans, according to an industry source. Sacks produced these numbers in [his post]( - 220,000 rounds is roughly a month’s supply in the Ukraine War. - The cost per shell is approximately $5500 — roughly 10X what it costs Russia to produce a similar shell. - It will take over 2 YEARS for the order to be fulfilled. Russia already produces this amount every month. Again, it’s [Glaucus versus Diomedes](. $5,500 per round? Are you kidding me? And why is Russia, an alleged “gas station parading as a country,” able to produce such ordnance for 90% less? And only 220,000 rounds, merely a month’s supply? And it’ll take two years to produce what those alleged kleptocrats in Russia can make in a month? Remember, America built an aircraft carrier every month during World War II! Sacks ended his post with a bang: “All that this signing ceremony has advertised is NATO’s weakness — the atrophying of its defense industrial base, the corruption of its military procurement process, and the incompetence of its elites.” I couldn’t agree more. Wrap Up It’s either willful lying or a stunning lack of self-awareness. Either way, the USG must wake up to the reality of the situation. When America was building an aircraft carrier per month, it could wage war in two separate theatres. But when it can barely get shells produced at a decent price, war is best avoided. Still, this makes me like aerospace and defense stocks all the more. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Repeal This AUMFul Law [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Americans must be wondering how their government can quickly get them tangled in one war after another. After all, for the USA’s nearly 248 years on this planet, it’s been at war for almost 230 of them. [Rude awakening] Credit: [@DefiantLs]( In fact, [Joy Reid was just caught off camera talking about how Biden just started “another f*cking war.”]( Now, we’ve got a few going on simultaneously. Let’s not pretend the US isn’t involved in Russia-Ukraine. Then there’s the Israel-Palestine war. Now, we’ve got more trouble in the Syria-Iraq-Jordan border area. Soon, it’ll be Taiwan and China. The Neocons haven’t been this excited since that intellectual amoeba Dubya was elected. And they’ve got good reason to be. With all this war going on, the military-industrial complex will siphon off a ton of American taxpayers’ funds. Nikki Haley picked the wrong time to run for President. Even if she didn’t stay at Boeing, she could’ve got another boardroom position for Lockheed Martin or Raytheon. There will be a bunch of arms manufactured over the next few years. But I thought I’d take today to explain why it’s so easy for America to get into wars. The War Powers Act The War Powers Act, officially known as the War Powers Resolution of 1973, is a significant piece of U.S. legislation that seeks to limit the president's power to engage the United States in an armed conflict without the consent of Congress. [Rude awakening] Credit: [@runews]( The Act was passed in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. It was a period marked by deep concerns over the executive branch's increasing sway in military decision-making, especially in the absence of a formal war declaration by Congress. The War Powers Act requires the President to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action. It forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without Congressional authorization to use military force or a declaration of war by the United States. The Act has been controversial since its inception. Many presidents have viewed it as an unconstitutional infringement of their commander-in-chief powers. Richard Nixon initially vetoed the legislation; Congress overrode him with a two-thirds vote. Its effectiveness has also been questioned, as subsequent presidents largely ignored or circumvented it during various military engagements. Despite these challenges, many in DC circles believe that the War Powers Act remains an essential tool for maintaining a balance of power between the US president and Congress in matters of military intervention. It reflects the ongoing struggle in U.S. politics to find the right balance between necessary, swift executive action in military matters and the democratic need for congressional oversight and consent that happens in a trigger-happy country. But what has, in many ways, obviated the War Powers Act is the AUMF. 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[Click Here To Learn More]( Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 The Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) is closely related to the War Powers Act, but it serves a different purpose within the context of U.S. military actions. [Rude awakening] Credit: [@amuse]( Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) is a congressional authorization that allows the President to use military force. It's not a formal declaration of war but grants the President the power to engage in military actions. The most notable AUMFs were passed after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. They were used to justify U.S. military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq, among other operations in the global war on terror. It’s different from The War Powers Act, as it aims to limit the President's ability to engage in military action without Congressional oversight. In contrast, an AUMF provides explicit Congressional authorization for such action. Here’s the onion: when an AUMF is in place, it effectively supersedes the War Powers Act because it represents the Congressional approval that the War Powers Act seeks to ensure. AUMFs, particularly the ones post-9/11, have been criticized for being too broad and enabling extended military engagements without sufficient Congressional review or renewal. They have been used to justify various military actions across different administrations, raising concerns about their scope and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. So, while the War Powers Act is a legislative tool designed to check the President's power to commit the U.S. to armed conflict, the AUMF is a tool that grants the President the authority to use military force, potentially bypassing some of the checks intended by the War Powers Act. In effect, the AUMF cancels out the War Powers Act. And this is just the kind of gridlock the warmongers thrive on. So how can we profit from this? Aerospace and Defense Stocks The obvious place to look is aerospace and defense stocks. Why? Because of the Cantillon Effect. The Cantillon Effect is the concept of relative inflation or a disproportionate price rise among different goods in an economy. In short, when the government is about to spend boatloads of your tax dollars on an industry, invest in that industry to get your tax dollars back. [Rude awakening] We have Raytheon (RTX) and General Dynamics (GD) on the left side. Both stocks are in sustained, healthy uptrends. On the right side, we have Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT), which suffered recent setbacks. These aren’t recommendations. They’re starting points for your investigation. But if we’re right about the Cantillon Effect, aerospace and defense stocks should rise over the coming years. (If, of course, Boeing can keep the doors on its planes.) Wrap Up The US has been at war for over 90% of its history. Despite Congress’s efforts to corral the President’s ability to make war, Congress, in effect, has given any sitting President all he needs to conduct war. As currently written, the AUMF supersedes the War Powers Act. Until this tomfoolery is corrected, America will forever be at war. In the meantime, look to profit from Congress’s mistake. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. 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