This Man Understands What’s At Stake in Ukraine

This May Be Europe’s Opening… [Morning Reckoning] January 18, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( This Man Understands What’s At Stake in Ukraine Asti, Northern Italy January 18, 2024 [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, I was poking around X.com when I ran into a post from Glenn Diesen ([@Glenn_Diesen](. Glenn is a geopolitical analyst and author who’s appeared on one of my favorite geopolitical YouTube channels, [The Duran](. [Glenn’s post]( was about the Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, and [his op-ed in the Slovakian newspaper,](. I just read that editorial. It’s brilliant, and I want to share it with you. There are a few reasons why. As for me, since I’m on the other side of the world from the United States, I think I must provide you with information you’d never get from the US Media Industrial Complex. Also, politicians who write in their local language in their local newspapers aren’t targeting US citizens. They’re targeting their own, which means you get a genuine message. Just because Prime Minister Fico comes from a small country doesn’t render his message unimportant or irrelevant. He’s serving his third term as Slovakian PM and has been in Europe’s political trenches for over thirty years. Finally, Hungary’s Viktor Orbàn isn’t alone in the EU anymore, trying to prevent more Ukrainian lives from being lost. [2024 Will Be The Year of AI]( The coming second wave of AI could change your life and your finances starting in 2024. This is why our team of experts went live to show you what you need to do to prepare before it profoundly impacts you and your wealth in the coming months… And to reveal THREE tiny AI stocks set to explode during AI’s Second Wave. [Click here for all the details.]( [LEARN MORE]( A Word On Slovakia Slovakia isn’t the country Melania Trump comes from. That’s Slovenia, which was a part of the former Yugoslavia. Slovakia was once one-half of Czechoslovakia, along with Czechia, but they mutually decided to conduct “The Velvet Divorce,” which separated the countries without a shot fired. Czechia’s capital is the world-famous Prague. Slovakia’s capital is the less famous but altogether charming Bratislava. Daddy fixing Micah’s hood in Bratislava’s Old Town in December 2019. Credit: Sean Ring Here’s Slovakia within Europe: Credit: Google Maps Now, let’s get into the meat of the PM’s editorial. But before we do that, please know I used Google Translate to translate the PM’s original Slovakian into English. It’s a good tool, but not perfect. So don’t mistake wonky translation for the PM’s educational level. The West’s Ukraine Strategy Isn’t Working Credit: [Pravda (Slovakia)]( From the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, I rejected a black-and-white vision, as desired in Washington or Brussels. The war in Ukraine has its roots already in 2014 and in the development of the Ukrainian political scene and its relationship with fellow citizens of Russian nationality. And, of course, in the total influence of the USA on everything that happened and is happening in Ukraine after 2014 until now. I may or may not be exaggerating a bit, but let's imagine, for example, that the entire Department of Defense of Mexico, as a neighboring country of the US, was under the complete control of Russia, not to mention the political leaders, including the president. First, Fico cites 2014 as the year this mess began in earnest, not 2022. He also blames the US. Notice his analogy of Russia controlling Mexico. It’s hardly original, but it makes the point effectively. Would the US ever put up with that? Of course not. Fico continues: Russia responded to the security situation and Ukraine's pressure to join NATO by violating international law, using military force without an international mandate. Big countries often do that, let's see what the US accomplished in Iraq. And the West, instead of immediately making every effort to achieve a quick ceasefire, at the beginning of 2022 without even losing a tenth to Ukraine, made a huge mistake. He incorrectly evaluated the use of Russian military force as an opportunity to bring Russia to its knees. One look at history. Russia was invaded by Hitler in June 1941, but the Western Allies did not open a second front until the summer of 1944, when the outcome of the war was clear in favor of the former USSR. It is proven that at the very beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the West did not allow the Ukrainians to conclude a ceasefire with fair terms on at least two very promising occasions. Because a painfully wrong decision has already been made. The West will take advantage of Russia's violation of international law, supply Ukraine with piles of weapons, billions of dollars, load Russia with massive sanctions, attack Russia's main mineral income and expect the Ukrainian soldier, down to the last, to bring him the Russian bear's head on a platter in in the form of a militarily exhausted, economically ruined, internationally isolated and internally politically subverted Russia. This was and unfortunately still is the Western strategy, which I openly say at home and abroad that it does not work, that it has failed. And I don't even agree with her. I am not one of the Slovak politicians who are happy that in Slovakia the Russian Federation is being made a mortal enemy, and I do not at all like that we are labeled as an enemy country in Russia for this reason. Like many Western politicians, Fico alleges Russia violated international law. But he’s quick to note the US does it all the time. Fico also notes the West stupidly didn’t agree to a ceasefire that would’ve saved Ukraine in its present form. (That may still happen, but every day that passes throws the situation into further doubt.) Fico also alleges the West is taking advantage of Russia’s international law violation to get the Ukrainians to fight the war for the West. He knows this strategy is a failed one. Fico quickly says he disagrees with Russia, which distinguishes him from Orbàn. But he’s unhappy about Slovakia's inclusion on Russia’s enemies list. Fico goes on: It is literally shocking to see how the West has repeatedly made mistakes in assessing the situation in Russia. The facts are inexorable. Russia completely controls the occupied territories militarily, and attempts to convince the international community with demagoguery about the demoralization of the Russian soldiers and the huge human losses are increasingly showing themselves as empty demagogic wishful thinking. Ukraine is not capable of any meaningful military counter-offensive, it has become completely dependent on financial aid from the West with unforeseeable consequences for Ukrainians in the years to come. It is only a matter of time when official information about land ownership in Ukraine, about the largest foreign owners, will begin to be published. The position of the Ukrainian president is shaken, while the Russian president increases and strengthens his political support. Neither the Russian economy nor the Russian currency collapsed, anti-Russian sanctions increase the internal self-sufficiency of this huge country, Russian energy giants report record deliveries to China and India. On the other hand, people from around the Ukrainian president, for the prestigious, I repeat prestigious foreign media, say that there is theft in Ukraine as if there was no tomorrow. Of course, I do not dare to claim that Russia is not feeling the negative consequences of its February 2022 decision to use military force in Ukraine. But not by any chance to the extent that it would ruin it, as the Western planners had predicted. Fico states the obvious: Russia is winning, and Ukraine is losing. But we’ve known this for ages. It’s refreshing to hear it from someone who deals with this stuff daily. He also ridicules the sanctions, as we all should. Fico knows Russia is stronger thanks to its immense self-sufficiency. But Fico also thinks Russia is suffering a bit, though he doesn’t elaborate. Fico ends his piece with this: I often ask myself what is defeatist about realistic and fact-based considerations about the necessity of a cease-fire in Ukraine, when it is absolutely clear to everyone that the crisis in Ukraine has no military solution. If I wish for something, it is for the Slavs to stop fighting each other for geopolitical reasons, both on the American and Russian sides. Let Ukraine follow its sovereign, not dictated, path. If he sees himself in the EU, let him get this chance, provided he meets the conditions. We will be happy to help. Russia also needs its security guarantees. And I continue to believe that we should return to the recent European rhetoric of how the EU and Russia are somewhat connected vessels and how they need each other. As Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, I will not spread hostility towards any country in the world, I also wish for the gradual standardization of relations between EU member countries and Russia. And I will no longer be subject to stupid liberal and progressive demagoguery that offends basic human justice and will ultimately cause enormous harm. Fico leaves the EU door open for Ukraine, though I doubt Russia will ever agree to it. And I doubt the neocons who currently run the US and EU will give Russia any security guarantees. Wrap Up This piece didn’t set the world on fire because of who wrote it and where it was printed. And that’s a damn shame. I can’t see much to disagree with. Robert Fico wrote a heartfelt piece hoping to kickstart a peace process the USG isn’t willing to start on behalf of its vassal states in Europe. How long will this last? I suspect not much longer. With the Middle East on fire and Taiwan electing a new president, I can see America cut its losses in Europe and move on to greener pastures. But that may be the opening Europe is looking for. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( [The 2 AI investing traps revealed [must read]]( Investor and entrepreneur James Altucher made millions during the crypto boom. 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In fact, this week just so happens to be the perfect moment to adjust your mindset. Earnings season is set to ramp up over the next several days, and I’m betting we’ll see more than a few surprises that catch investors off guard. My theory about why earnings cause so much angst is that the numbers and the market reaction don’t always match. A company can report stellar sales, a growing bottom line, and raise forward guidance. Yet shares can still drop once the opening bell rings. These post-earnings shenanigans infuriate many market watchers because the stock in question isn’t acting right. “It’s not doing what it should be doing,” they grumble as the stock plummets despite beating analyst estimates. If you are a glutton for punishment or you happen to have a few hours to spare, sit through an earnings call or thumb through a quarterly statement. Then, try to predict how the stock will move without checking the price. Did it gap higher when you expected it to drop? Did it suddenly reverse at the end of the day after trending higher or lower? Chances are, you aren’t going to nail the reaction to the penny. In fact, I’d wager that you can’t consistently guess the direction and magnitude of earnings events – even with the benefit of seeing the numbers first. Sell the News Earnings aren’t the only situations where investors drastically overestimate their forecasting abilities. In fact, we just witnessed some fresh market shenanigans during the chaotic Bitcoin ETF news cycle. Unless the rock you’ve been living under is having internet connectivity issues, you already know the SEC officially approved the first US-listed Bitcoin ETFs last week just one day after its hacked Twitter account posted a fraudulent announcement. The news sparked plenty of excitement throughout crypto exchanges and news providers, as well as the broader investing community. The mainstream media even dubbed the approval a watershed moment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto industry. But for traders attempting to play the news, this watershed moment failed to yield spectacular gains immediately following the announcement. Instead, the new crypto ETFs dropped. As did Bitcoin. Other cryptocurrencies followed suit. The crypto celebrations flipped to confusion. How could this have happened? Behavioral finance (and a well-known stock market adage) offer an answer to this question… Buy the rumor, sell the news. Investors held overwhelmingly bullish positions into the SEC decision. The market then got its expected result: approval! But all the gains were front-loaded into the announcement. The bulls had already bought. When the mind-bending gains didn’t materialize right away, impatient traders sold the news. The Bitcoin ETF debacle is a classic case of the market getting way too far ahead of itself. This doesn’t mean the ETF approvals aren’t good for crypto in the long-term. But we’ll probably need to see Bitcoin (and crypto-adjacent stocks and ETFs) backfill and consolidate before they resume their rallies that began late last year. Last week’s Bitcoin move has all the hallmarks of a failed breakout. It pushed above $49K on the ETF announcement, only to immediately retreat back toward $46K, then into its previous consolidation range below $44K. This is classic sell the news action. It’s Not Getting Any Easier… Crypto isn’t completely broken – it probably just needs time to regroup. Whether this takes three weeks, three months, or longer remains to be seen. If we take the time to look around the market, Bitcoin’s stumble isn’t the only potential trouble we’re seeing. Some of the powerful rallies we enjoyed in November and December continue to lose steam as the month progresses. As we recently discussed, this means traders will need to be a little more tactical when it comes to trades on the long side. Despite a strong bounce early last week, many of the tech leaders outside of the Magnificent 7 mega-caps failed to push higher into the back half of the week. If we continue to see weak bounces, narrowing breadth, and distribution, we’ll need to adjust our expectations and prepare for choppier trading and a potentially bigger pullback. As always, don’t chase breakouts without adequate confirmation – especially when the move is associated with an anticipated news event. If and when these breakouts do fail and you’re involved, obey your pre-set stop loss conditions and get out of the way. False moves tend to lead to fast action in the opposite direction. That quick $5,000 drop in Bitcoin is all the evidence you need… If we continue to see more stocks and sectors stall out, we’ll probably need to shift our focus to more defensive strategies. Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Sean Ring] [Sean Ring, CAIA, FRM and CMT]( is a former banker and financial educator and is the editor of the Rude Awakening. Sean has trained interns and graduates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Standard Chartered Bank, DBS (Singapore), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Bank Indonesia (the central bank), HSBC, Barclays, RBS, and BlackRock. He knows the global economy is being corrupted by forces that most people can't understand and has used his unique and worldly experiences to help people navigate the markets. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. 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