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The USD recovery hurt stocks, bonds, and crypto. | Rip Roaring Rally Ends Year: December 2023 MACR W
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The USD recovery hurt stocks, bonds, and crypto. [The Rude Awakening] January 02, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Rip Roaring Rally Ends Year: December 2023 MACR [Sean Ring] SEAN
RING Happy New Year! I hope Santa gave you everything you wanted. And I hope you gave your family and friends all the presents you wanted to give them. After all, that’s why we’re here, watching the red and green blips on the screen. Here’s to a magnificent 2024. I look forward to spending a lot of time together. As for the markets, what a staggering rally to end the year! The Nazzie and the Russell ran straight through my targets, as did Bitcoin. I’m glad gold and silver remained sane and calm. As you thumb through this report, you’ll see I think gold, silver, and crypto are good portfolio choices right now. And though equities are showing no reason to sell, I’m starting to get cautious. Everyone and his mother is back in tech stocks, and they’re severely overbought. I can easily see a correction coming there. I feel the same way about bonds. I don’t like bonds because the inflation story is far from over. I can see a correction coming there, as well. I’m not saying to sell stocks and bonds right now. I’m not. I’m merely saying it’s time to start watching for any sell-offs coming. Of course, it’s the first week of January, so that we may gain further. With that in mind, let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 [Rude Awakening] We nearly hit last month’s 4,800 target in under 20 trading days. And while there’s no technical reason for the market to come down, I’m concerned about the various intermarket relationships (see below). Nasdaq Composite [Rude Awakening] We flew through 14,400 and breached 15,000. The next level is 16,000. However, we’re starting to get severely overbought here. Let’s see what this week brings us. A pullback to 14,400 would be healthy. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [Rude Awakening] Ok, when the small caps fly through levels, you know monetary conditions are loose, not tight. I’ll write more about that tomorrow. We went through 197 fast, but now I’m unsure about the 207 level. That last candle may be a reversal candle. We’ll have to see. The US 10-Year Yield [Rude Awakening] The 10-year yield keeps declining. Much of the market is looking for a rate cut, though I think it’ll be disappointing before the mid-year. I am looking at 3.4% next. Dollar Index [Rude Awakening] I’m looking for a dollar rebound here. Not a big one; maybe to 103. But enough to get the dollar doomers quiet for a month or two. USG Bonds [Rude Awakening] Among other colleagues, Zach Scheidt hit it out of the park on this one. TLT ran straight through our target to 98.88. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal this month, just to cool it off. Investment Grade Bonds [Rude Awakening] We blasted through 109, but I’m hesitant to say we’ll go much higher. Let’s see if we get a reversal from the sharp rise this month. [ Strange and Powerful AI Project Revealed]( Jim Rickards was recently passed some urgent new intelligence involving a $10 million A.I. project…
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[Click here to play his urgent message now.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( High Yield Bonds [Rude Awakening] We hit our target of 78, but again, we could be reversing here. The uptrend got much steeper last month. I’m not sure that can last much longer. Real Estate [Rude Awakening] We didn’t get to 90-92 yet. But I’m also weary of a reversal from here. This two-month rally was insane, going from 70 to 88, an over 25% gain. Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil) [Rude Awakening] I thought we’d turn around, but that didn’t happen. However, I can’t see oil going much lower here. A reversion to 78 is on the cards. Base Metals: Copper [Rude Awakening] From last month: Though copper rallied, I’m not convinced. I am still keeping my downside targets of 3.60 and 3.30. The real economy is in bad shape. Precious Metals: Gold [Rude Awakening] From last month: Ok, we finally closed a month above $2,000. Allegedly, the sky’s the limit. But, we need to be cautiously optimistic. The new upside target in gold is $2,340. In my interview with Thorsten Polleit, he targeted $2,200 for year-end. Both can be correct. But we must see the new “line in the sand” to make more valid assumptions. Good hunting! Precious Metals: Silver [Rude Awakening] From last month: As Rick Rule says, fear drives gold. But once a gold rally is established, silver joins in as a greed trade. The upside target here is only $26.50. For now. Let gold get a head of steam going, and then silver will follow. It’ll take all your patience, but it’ll be worth it. Cryptos: Bitcoin [Rude Awakening] From last month: Ran straight through my target of $35,650. Next target: $47,000 or thereabouts. Cryptos: Ether [Rude Awakening] Straight through the $2,300 target, now looking for $3,300. Trade Asset Class Summary [Rude Awakening] From [stockcharts.com]( Intermarket Technical Analysis is the study of the relationships between the four major financial markets: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Currencies. There are several key relationships that bind these four markets together. These relationships are: The INVERSE relationship between commodities and bonds The INVERSE relationship between bonds and stocks The POSITIVE relationship between stocks and commodities The INVERSE relationship between the US Dollar and commodities POSITIVE: When one goes up, the other goes up also. INVERSE: When one goes up, the other goes down. When these relationships occur, the markets are said to be acting "normally" and there is a good probability the current trends will continue. When one or more of these relationships break down, the markets should be watched carefully for signs of general trend reversals. Three of these four relationships are out-of-whack. That makes me think a reversal may be coming soon. Bonds led the way last month, as everyone is begging their 60/40 portfolio to return. Crypto Class Summary [Rude Awakening] Crypto logged another good month, with Bitcoin and Ether leading the way, up nearly 10% each. The only loser among the bigger coins this month is Monero. Wrap Up I’m still happy to be long gold, silver, and crypto. I can’t help but think a reversal is in the offing for stocks, bonds, and real estate. Finally, let’s take a moment, courtesy of the Twitterverse: [Rude Awakening] Credit: [@alifarhat79]( Have a great week! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring
Editor, Rude Awakening
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