The Easiest Money You’ll Make Next Year [Morning Reckoning] December 19, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( My 2024 Profit-Making Strategy – Revealed Baltimore, Maryland
December 19, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG
GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, The market is tipping its hand. If you pay close attention, you’ll begin to see the signs of a massive rotation in stocks – a phenomenon most investors will ignore until it’s too late. But I do have some good news… If you catch these moves early, you have the chance to pull in impressive returns. As this rotation rally extends, I’m betting one sector could double up the S&P 500 during the first six months of 2024. Best of all, you can achieve these market-beating gains with a simple buy-and-hold trade. I’ll show you how in just a minute, But first, you need to understand what’s happening under the surface of the major averages. This rotation trade begins with the mega-cap stocks – names like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc. (META). The Jim Cramer-dubbed Magnificent Seven “finished 2022 down 40%,” The Wall Street Journal reports, “losing $4.7 trillion in combined market value, whereas the remaining stocks in the S&P 500 dropped 12%.” But the Magnificent Seven have once again bubbled back to the top of the market following last year’s brutal performance. Now, analysts and pundits are sounding alarms as these mega-caps are once again dominating the market, wth Goldman Sachs noting the group has grown to a whopping 30% of the S&P 500. For the record, surging mega-caps are not setting off alarm bells for the market at-large. But I don’t think they are going to experience the same level of market domination in 2024. No, it’s not likely market-leading NVDA is going to rally another 250% next year. It probably won’t crash – but I sincerely doubt we'll see a repeat performance of 2023’s historic performance. Instead of an impending crash due to a top-heavy market, we’re seeing the beginning of a rotation away from mega-caps into tech laggards and small-cap stocks – a rotation that has become more pronounced over the past week. Intel> Strange and Powerful AI Project Revealed]( Jim Rickards was recently passed some urgent new intelligence involving a $10 million A.I. project … That could have a massive and direct impact on your life. Everything you need to know is in this 2-minute AI briefing . [Click here to play his urgent message now.]( [LEARN MORE]( A Challenger Appears Last week, the Fed elected to hold rates steady. The market was expecting no action – so that’s not what sparked the rally. Instead, the Fed’s dovish comments started the feeding frenzy. Powell declared that inflation has eased (finally) and market participants can expect it to be less of a problem in 2024. How you personally feel about these comments or the probability of a so-called “soft landing” doesn’t matter. What’s important is how the market interpreted the news, and this is the message stock sent: For starters, hikes are likely done. And it’s becoming very likely that we’ll see some cuts next year, possibly as early as March. More importantly, this Fed meeting was the last real obstacle for the melt-up rally to scale into year-end. I don’t see anything else on the calendar standing in our way as 2024 approaches. The Nasdaq Composite, S&P and Dow all jumped about 1.4% following the release of the Fed minutes. And the good vibes continued through the end of the week. More importantly, small-caps exploded higher as many of the Magnificent Seven stocks failed to keep up. Instead of NVDA hogging the headlines, we watched smaller names and forgotten growth stocks plow higher in dramatic fashion. The Russell 2000 rallied a staggering 3.5% on Fed Day. And it didn’t stop there… By the end of the week, the small-cap index rallied 5.5% to post its fifth green week in a row. This is the same index that was breaking to lows not seen since late 2020 during the final week of October. Seven weeks later, the Russell 2000 is now working on a significant breakout. One more important note about this chart: The Russell 2000 has grossly underperformed the major averages for nearly two years. While the biggest of the big remained stable presences in the market, the Russell was hit hard by the regional banking crisis earlier this year, and failed to rally with the major averages into the summer months. It also experienced a hard reset from August through October that led to a drop of more than 17%. Most mega-caps were stable during this period while smaller names took a beating, acting as a de facto safe haven for investors worried about the potential for a bigger drawdown heading into the fourth quarter. But as more investors piled onto the bearish side of the boat, the market suddenly shot higher. The Russell 2000 abruptly reversed off its lows, and a powerful melt-up move emerged. Despite its incredible 20%-plus rally that began at the start of November, the Russell 2000 is just now attacking the top of its range. A breakout above 200 in IWM would be huge – and would set the stage for a catch-up move that could lead to small-caps quickly outperforming the big boys during the first half of 2024. One Easy Trade You don’t need to employ any complicated strategies to take advantage of a small-cap snapback. Simply snag a few shares of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and you have an excellent chance to double the performance of the S&P 500 during the first half of 2024. Of course, this big market shift is also opening the door to plenty of new short-term trading opportunities. Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner
Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning
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RING Dear Reader, Yesterday evening Eastern Time, the Paradigm Press 7 Predictions Summit was live on Zoom and YouTube. I hope you joined us. Seeing my friends and colleagues and conversing with our incredibly loyal and charitable viewers was an absolute blast. To think people would stay with us for four hours delights me to the core. Of course, of the over 7,000 people on the call, most wanted to hear what Jim Rickards, James Altucher, Byron King, Zach Scheidt, Ray Blanco, and Greg Guenthner were predicting. Even an AI version of Alan Knuckman put in his four cents. (You never just get two from Ole Alan…) But I want you to get right to my prediction. And here it is: Christmas is coming early… and it’ll stick around for a while. Click on the link below to hear my full forecast: The big two predictions I made: - The S&P 500 will reach at least 5,000 before selling off into the election. The higher the SPX goes before the cuts start, the likelier it’ll hit 5,000. - Gold will reach $2,500 per oz. before August. Gold and gold mining stocks will finally take off, but only after the cuts start (Powell’s Pivot). Predictions are a risky business. But I’m confident we’ll see a big rally into 2024 before things fall apart. There’s such a disconnect between the real economy and the stock market it would be foolish to short now. In fact, you want to be quite the opposite. To wrap up, also gave some insights into what to look out for when you’re trading, if you want to be successful. You can go right to that portion of the video by [clicking here](. That’s all from me today. Enjoy your weekend and I’ll see you next week! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring
Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning
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X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. GregâÃôs charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗
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