Are You Ready For the 2024 Market Melt-Up?

Put away your bearishness. We’re heading up from here. [The Rude Awakening] December 14, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Are You Ready For the 2024 Market Melt-Up? [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Yesterday evening Eastern Time, the Paradigm Press 7 Predictions Summit was live on Zoom and YouTube. I hope you joined us. Seeing my friends and colleagues and conversing with our incredibly loyal and charitable viewers was an absolute blast. To think people would stay with us for four hours delights me to the core. Of course, of the over 7,000 people on the call, most wanted to hear Jim Rickards, James Altucher, Byron King, Zach Scheidt, Ray Blanco, and Greg Guenthner were predicting. Even an AI version of Alan Knuckman put in his four cents. (You never just get two from Ole Alan…) But since you’re a stalwart Rude reader, you have every right to know my prediction. And here it is: Christmas is coming early… and it’ll stick around for a while. The Prediction(s) - The S&P 500 will reach at least 5,000 before selling off into the election. - The higher the SPX goes before the cuts start, the likelier it’ll hit 5,000. - Gold will reach $2,500 per oz. before August. - Gold and gold mining stocks will finally take off, but only after the cuts start (Powell’s Pivot). Although you’ll see more backup later, these are the only two targets I’m held to. Two Big Cognitive Errors Error Number One: We’ve consistently - over decades - underestimated the strength and resolve of The State. Error Number Two is worse than that. It’s our constant overconfidence in “The People” to break free of the chains (they so clearly revere). The lack of reaction to the March bank bailouts proves that case. The silence was deafening as Oprah, Harry, Megan, and Silicon Valley got its bailout. There was nothing similar on the cards for any of the flyover states. Of course, they usually don’t vote Democrat (without some help). Axioms I’m Working From This part is crucial because it’s the worldview I’m working from. Here are my “givens” or starting points to make this prediction. - Jay Powell does NOT want to work for Donald Trump again. - Joe Biden (or his Democratic handlers) want him or another anointed one (Newsom) to retain the Presidency for the Democrats. - Jay Powell will tacitly agree to help the Democrats retain power. - Jay Powell will start cutting rates (pivoting) at the latest possible moment. - Donald Trump will cry foul. In fact, the more he cries foul, the more the strategy is working. After Chairman Pow’s first experience with DJT, I’m sure he prefers The Husk Known As Joke Biden to be his boss. No Fed Chairman is genuinely independent. The closest we had was Alan Greenspan during the Clinton years. Greenspan was arguably the most powerful man in the world during that time. Greenspan had, purposely or not, helped Clinton defeat George H. W. Bush in the presidential election of 1992. Clinton both respected and feared Greenspan. But these aren’t those days. And that’s why I think Powell will quietly help Biden (or whoever the Democratic Nominee is) by cutting rates when the economy finally starts to catch up with the stock market. Powell won’t make it obvious, so he’ll wait until the last moment to cut rates. This will goose the stock, bond, crypto, commodities, and real estate markets. Trump will be screaming, “The game is rigged!” from the sidelines to no avail. Will this turn the tide in the Democrats’ favor? It’s doubtful, but as long as you’re long during this political catfight, you’ll do just fine. Interestingly, after last Friday’s jobs numbers, Biden showed the world exactly what he thinks of Fed independence: [Biden] Credit: Bloomberg Waiting For Jerome… Whenever you see the mugshots of the Big Four central bank heads on Bloomberg, you can be sure a crime is about to be committed. [pub] Credit: Bloomberg After the Nixon Shock (getting the US off the gold standard in 1971), then-US Treasury Secretary John Connolly said, “It may be our currency, but it’s your problem.” Here’s the thing: The ECB, BOJ, and BOE cannot cut before the Fed because of capital flight worries. By that, I mean if Powell wrongfoots everyone by hiking, and those central banks have already cut rates, money will fly out of Euroland, Japan, and the UK and into the US. Those countries can’t afford that to happen. (If the capital flight is big enough, it may create the very inflation Powell is desperate to avoid.) Also, UST interest payments now exceed the annual defense budget. Yes, you read that right. After Social Security, the second largest line item in the US budget is interest. Then defense. It’s insane. And, remember, Jay doesn’t want to work for The Donald again. [[Revealed!] New AI Opportunity Bigger Than The PC?]( Just imagine being able to turn back the clock to the 1980s – right as a new technology known as the PC was getting its start… Seeing the promise of the PC – and captivated by Microsoft’s technology – an early investor decides to put in $500 during the company’s IPO in 1986. As of today, that $500 investment would have turned into a fortune worth over $1.6 MILLION. I bring this up because we are at the dawn of a new innovation which could be even BIGGER than the PC. [I’m talking about artificial intelligence, or AI](. According to Yahoo Finance, “we are on the cusp of a technological revolution that will fundamentally change how we live our lives.” And you have the chance to invest on the ground floor… [Click here now to see the 3 tiny AI stocks best positioned to profit](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Refinancing Is Too Expensive Now It’s not only governments who have to worry about high interest rates. Most companies - any company not in the S&P top 150 - must roll over, or refinance, its debt at much higher rates than before. Many of these companies simply can’t run at above-zero rates. Of course, this bleeds to the consumer, who now faces high mortgage and credit card repayment rates. [Global debt] Credit: Bloomberg Wrong Last Year, Right This Year? It’s almost hilarious how wrong the world’s traders got it last year. Rates were hiked by much more than they expected. The question is this: Will rates come down this year, and how much? [Traders are betting] Credit: Bloomberg I’m pretty sure they must, which only feeds into Jay Powell’s list of motivations to cut. But he’s a stubborn one! The Presidential Election Cycle JC Parets at All-Star Charts put together this great chart at the end of July last year. [pub] Credit: @allstarcharts We’re in the “meh” period before the election cycle begins. And I think our central bank will be doling out goodies to get his man back in the White House. Price Targets For 2024 I use Point and Figure Charts to look at possible price targets. I won’t get into them, per se, as virtually no one uses them anymore. However, they provide upside and downside targets that help evaluate the risk-reward of a trade. And boy, are those targets bullish or what? [pub] Not only are my SPX and $Gold predictions validated but they’re surpassed. So, I’m very comfortable with my two predictions. But to throw them in there, the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Long Treasury ETF (TLT) both look great. Wrap Up Predictions are a risky business. But I’m confident we’ll see a big rally into 2024 before things fall apart. There’s such a disconnect between the real economy and the stock market it would be foolish to short now. In fact, you want to be quite the opposite. Have a great day. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Marc Faber on Argentina, International Stocks, and BRICS [Sean Ring] SEAN RING “Achievement Unlocked!” as the kids say. Yesterday evening, I did something I’ve wanted to do for nearly two decades. I finally got to speak with Marc Faber, investor-extraordinaire and the Founder and Publisher of the [Gloom, Boom, & Doom]( monthly newsletter. After watching Marc in hundreds of YouTube video interviews, I knew he’d be entertaining. But he was funny, insightful, and generous with his thoughts. I don’t want to give the game away today, but I’d like to share some of his insights before we publish the full interview on our Paradigm Press YouTube Channel this Friday. [Urgent Notice From Paradigm CIO Zach Scheidt!]( [Click here to learn more]( Hi, Zach Scheidt here… I’m the Chief Income Officer at Paradigm Press. With inflation raging (and showing no signs of coming to an end any time soon), almost everyone in America is feeling the pain in a big way. Which is why, several months ago, I set out on a big mission… my goal was to create a [complete, step-by-step plan to surviving and beating inflation]( one that anyone could take advantage of. Today, after hundreds of hours of research, I’m revealing all of my findings. [Simply click here now to see how to survive America’s deadly inflation crisis](. [Click Here To Learn More]( The Beginning I had known Marc was a skier for his native Switzerland was he was a young man. But it was fascinating to hear him talk about it. As I do for all my fellow travelers, I asked Marc why he left God’s Own Country of Switzerland. (Marc left after completing his PhD in Economics; this year celebrates 50 years abroad, most of it in Asia.) His response was full of grit and ambition; it’s as if he de-aged as he answered. He remarked how lucky he was to grow up in such prosperous circumstances, but he wanted the chance to “make his own contacts and his own network” and not rely on the numerous introductions his family could provide. Respect. Milei, Argentina, and Latin America Regarding Milei, it more of a “let’s see” thing than an exciting endorsement. From this December’s edition of the [Gloom, Boom, and Doom]( report, Marc wrote: After calling the Chinese government an “assassin” during an August interview with Bloomberg News and saying he wouldn’t keep relations with Brazil or countries led by “communists” if elected, Milei sounded surprisingly cordial in comments made just a few days after his landslide Nov. 19 win. He sent well-wishes to the Chinese people in a social media post Wednesday, thanking President Xi Jinping for a letter in which he congratulated the Argentine leader for his victory and reminded him that relations between Beijing and Buenos Aires were always based on ‘mutual respect,’ with ‘tangible benefits’ for both sides. Also, on Wednesday [November 22] he told a local TV that Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would ‘be welcome’ to attend his Dec. 10 inauguration. And he even patched differences with Pope Francis, an Argentine he once described as the devil’s man on earth. When receiving a call from the Vatican on Tuesday, Milei invited His Holiness to visit Argentina soon. The about-face is the latest sign yet that the foul-mouthed libertarian who swept to power with radical promises to fix Argentina’s problems may be adopting a more pragmatic approach, at least in foreign policy, as he prepares to take office. ‘It was inevitable, Argentina simply can’t afford to alienate its most important trading partners,’ said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program. ‘It seems clear that Milei is following the advice of his more pragmatic advisers when it comes to foreign policy, including former President Mauricio Macri.’ The Argentine stock market is up 124% in USD since news of Milei’s victory hit the newswires. Mexico is up by 27%; Brazil, 23%. Marc also notes Chile is a huge bargain. In this part of the interview, Marc gives a brief glimpse into how he watches so many of the global markets so closely. It’s a master class in and of itself. Regarding Taxes Marc was much more of a pragmatist about taxes than I am. I just would prefer they be gone. But Marc mentioned his friends in Norway and other countries and how happy they are despite the high taxes. Why? Because they get substantial benefits like real social security. That is, they’re not going to starve in old age. He juxtaposed this position with the social welfare net in places like the US and Australia. What do you get in those countries for your high taxes? Nothing, not even intelligent politicians running the show! BRICS Marc said the BRICS are many countries united by dissatisfaction with the current system. But so much of the global population resides in the BRICS nations that they cannot be ignored. Wrap Up I don’t want to give too much away, as the interview is rich with Marc’s observations about the world and its current goings-on. Marc’s interview will premiere on Friday, December 15th, at 4 pm Eastern Time. I hope to see you there, and I’ll send the link beforehand. Get your paper and pen ready! There’s a lot he covers. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. 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