Stop. Recessions Aren’t Real.

But we’re already in one. [Altucher Confidential] December 07, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Recessions aren’t real. But one is definitely here. Here’s what you need to know. [Hero_Image] Stop. Recessions Aren’t Real. [Chris Campbell] CHRIS CAMPBELL Dear Reader, Have you ever said a word so much it begins to lose its meaning? It becomes strange, unfamiliar, and sounds foreign? It can happen with any word. Even your own name. (Try it. It’s weird.) The first time it happened to me was with the word “deteriorate.” It started when I noticed how weird of a word it is. “Duh-tear-ree-or-ate. Is that right?” The more I thought about it and said it, the more confused I became. The word morphed into something strange. Alien. Primitive. Grunts from a prehistoric tribe. I started asking myself if it wasn’t actually a word. Perhaps I’d made it up! This is a psychological effect called “semantic satiation.” It's when the brain becomes desensitized to the repeated stimuli of a specific word, causing the word to lose its familiarity and meaning for a short period. I bring this up because of CNBC reporters recently. They kept using the “R” word…. You know the one: Recession. By the end of the segment, I wasn’t even sure if they -- or I, or anybody -- knew what the word meant. That sent me down a rabbit hole. It got me thinking… [Crash Warning The ONLY Way to Beat a Recession in 2024?]( The stock market’s next big drop has just begun, which could leave millions of Americans to watch their retirement accounts spiral toward new 52-week lows. The only chance you have at protecting your accounts from this market death spiral is to take immediate action. [In this short video]( a retired hedge fund manager known as “The Banker” breaks down his simple strategy that thrives during extreme volatility and could even significantly boost your income before the new year. [Click here to immediately for the details](. Recessions Aren’t Real Recessions are weird. The more you think about them, the weirder they become. Yes, the economy is cyclical. Downturns aren’t just inevitable, they’re healthy. BUT Economic cycles, including recessions, are not just determined by clean and predictable financial indicators but also by psychological and sociological factors. Collective mood, media reporting, and public sentiment play a substantial role in shaping economic realities. And they can be manipulated. A.] The Fear Factory Every time the media starts shouting "recession," what happens? Panic. Fear. It's like Halloween but for adults. And this fear isn't just innocent fun – it moves markets, influences decisions, and causes real harm. Give me an example of when the media saw a chance to scare the crap out of you and didn’t take it? I’ll wait. B.] Recessions are Relative Consider this – what's called a recession in one country is a day in paradise in another. Economic conditions are relative. If the standards are so skewed, can we really trust this whole concept? C.] The Recession Whisperers Imagine a secretive group, not in some government bunker, but in a quiet office in Cambridge, Massachusetts. That's the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the recession referee. But here's the twist: By the time the NBER declares a recession, it's like announcing rain when you're already soaked. Their method involves a retroactive look, meaning they wait for six months of data, plus a one-month lag. So, when they finally declare a recession, it's old news, a story you've been living in, not just reading about. In the world of economic predictions, the official-unofficial referees are not the early birds; they're the historians. Also… D.]The GDP Puppet Show GDP. It’s supposed to be a “health check” for the economy. BUT It's like going to a doctor who only measures your height and ignores your blood pressure, cholesterol, and heart rate. It counts every dollar spent, regardless of what it's spent on. That means disasters, wars, and environmental destruction all pump up the GDP. If a hurricane hits and we spend billions on reconstruction, guess what? GDP goes up. Celebrating a GDP increase is like throwing a party because your house burned down and you had to rebuild it. It’s also the main indicator the NBER uses to measure a recession. The real problem with this is… GDP is a broad measure and can be influenced by short-term fluctuations that don't necessarily reflect long-term economic trends. It’s a useful indicator, but far from comprehensive. E.] The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Here's the kicker – by declaring a recession, we make them more likely. It's a classic self-fulfilling prophecy. Businesses pull back on investment, consumers close their wallets, and just like that, the economy slows down. But what if we didn't buy into the narrative? I have no idea. F.] Rage Against Determinism Economies aren’t deterministic. They’re dynamic. Economies don’t follow a predetermined path. Human agency and perception play a significant role in shaping economic realities. Predictions are usually wrong for this reason. Also, there’s this… G.] The Hidden Agenda Tin foil hat time. Think about who benefits from recession talk. The media gets a juicy story. Politicians get a scapegoat. Certain investors get to buy low. It’s a game, and the average person isn't the one winning. You’re always being sold a narrative that serves others, not you. And Yet, a Recession is HERE Of course, recessions exist. Because prolonged downturns exist. But all of this calls into question what we think we know about the word “recession” and how we talk about it. It’s not as clear a concept as we think. Nevertheless, it’s probably here already. As our Paradigm colleague Jim Rickards put it: “To gauge recession risk today, moving beyond long-term, technical indicators like inverted yield curves, we're now seeing more immediate signs. Stock market stagnation, evident in major indices failing to surpass their peaks from early 2022, suggests an economy losing momentum. “These immediate indicators,” Jim concludes, “coupled with the earlier technical ones, paint a picture of an economy potentially already in recession. Consider caution.” If you haven’t already seen Jim’s favorite recession-proof strategy… [Check out -- and grab a special link for -- his FREE strategy session right here.]( Until next time, [Chris Campbell] Chris Campbell For Altucher Confidential James Altucher: THIS is my top AI investment pick I’ve been called a “genius investor” by my fans… And an “eccentric millionaire” by some others. I think it’s because I make big predictions that [tend to come true.]( Today, I’m making my boldest prediction ever. Revealing the AI stocks I believe… Could turn as little as $10,000… Into $1 MILLION over the next few years. To show you I’m serious about helping you get in on this opportunity, I’m giving away one of my top 5 AI 2.0 stock picks – free. [See my top 5 pick here now.]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. 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