Great Game or Great Friends? The Russia and Saudi Bromance.

Why does Saudi make an enormous effort to sidle up to the Russians? [The Rude Awakening] December 06, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Great Game or Great Friends? The Russia and Saudi Bromance. [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, When you read this, I’ll have picked up my parents from Milan Malpensa airport. The Plan is still in operation: they’ll be here, in Italy. It’s a day I’ve looked forward to for a long time. The next step is moving into our house, but that’s not until February. I’ll tell you more about that in future editions of the Rude. I thought I’d rerun something I wrote about Russia and Saudi Arabia in February this year for today's edition. Their plan is more apparent as well. They’ll do the opposite of Horace Greeley’s advice: they’ll go East, young man. —--- In the meantime, I thought I’d throw out a geopolitical piece today, as my good friend and Rude reader Cheltenham Ian wrote me last night. Ian and I have been friends for ten years. In fact, he poached me away from my old training company in 2013 to work for him in Singapore, covering the banks in Asia. I have drunk beer with Ian in more cities than most people I know. We’ve traveled together that often. And if it weren’t for the government-mandated private sector shutdown, that number would be even higher. But it’s been years since we’ve seen each other. So, we’ve had to resort to writing and talking on the phone, rather than beering it up in a good pub. In today’s Rude, I answer Ian’s question more thoroughly than I did in my reply to him for your benefit. What Was the Question? Here’s what Ian wrote: The angle that I don’t think is being written about much … Russia virtually stops selling to Europe directly etc. and starts selling a lot more to India and China at discounts. Builds a new distribution platform (sort of). All good so far. But are the key ME countries - especially Saudis - happy about this? Relaxed? I doubt it. A world in which Russia and Iran basically supply China. Middle East is relaxed at losing out? Not sure. Russia butts into Saudi’s major large-scale growth markets. Leaving Saudi more dependent on shrinking ‘western’ markets – places actively focused on reducing hydrocarbon use (albeit slowly). I can’t believe long term that will be thrilling for the Saudis. They’d probably like to maintain a balanced customer portfolio. It’s probably OK for now … at $80+ per barrel. But the longer-term feels a bit ‘loose cannon’ stuff and must have ripples out into the future? It’s also very interesting that the Middle East is choosing to ‘open up’ to western stuff - at the same time as Russia is choosing to ‘close off’ from the same. Feels like, again at $80, in the short term, not a lot is changing. But longer term my sense is Saudis will be thinking carefully about how they fit into that more binary world? Will it be comfortable for them to compete with Russia for China’s business? I wonder. Let’s get a critical item out of the way first. Why would Saudi sidle up to Russia, to begin with? - Economic benefits: As a major oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has a vested interest in maintaining stable relationships with major oil importers like Russia. The two countries have also discussed potential collaborations in other areas, such as investment, tourism, and nuclear energy. - Diversifying alliances: Saudi Arabia has traditionally been closely aligned with the United States, but recent tensions in the relationship have prompted the kingdom to seek out other partners. Developing closer ties with Russia gives Saudi Arabia more strategic options in a conflict or geopolitical crisis. - Syria conflict: Russia is a critical player in the Syrian conflict, which is of great concern to Saudi Arabia. By engaging with Russia, Saudi Arabia may hope to influence Russia's position on the conflict and potentially find a diplomatic solution. - Balancing against Iran: Saudi Arabia and Russia are regional powers concerned about Iran's influence in the Middle East. By allying with Russia, Saudi Arabia may seek to counterbalance Iran's regional influence. That last one is a big one. So we’ll save that for a bit later. Ian’s got the Russian oil rearrangement right except for one thing: Russia was already selling a shit-ton of oil to China. Here are the 2020 stats on imports to China: [Rude] Source: [( They’re already the biggest two. Do the Saudis love that? Probably not. But what are they going to do? A critical point to remember is this: Russia pipes its oil and gas to China. Saudi ships it. That’s much more time-consuming and expensive. The distance between Saudi Arabia and China is quite large, so transporting oil by sea is the most practical and cost-effective method. The oil is typically loaded onto tanker ships at Saudi Arabian ports, such as Ras Tanura or Yanbu, and transported through the Red Sea and then the Indian Ocean to ports in China, such as Qingdao or Shanghai. The journey can take several weeks, depending on the route and weather conditions. There have been discussions in recent years about the possibility of building a pipeline to transport oil from Saudi Arabia to China. But as of now, there is no such pipeline in operation. Remember, if China can figure out how to grow again, the Russians and Saudis can sell plenty more crude. According to [The Wall Street Journal]( North Africa is also picking up the Russian slack; it’s not just Asia. [Rude] Credit: [WSJ]( [Crash Warning: The ONLY Way to Beat a Recession in 2024?]( The stock market’s next big drop has just begun, which could leave millions of Americans to watch their retirement accounts spiral toward new 52-week lows. The only chance you have at protecting your accounts from this market death spiral is to take immediate action. [In this short video,]( a retired hedge fund manager known as “The Banker” breaks down his simple strategy that thrives during extreme volatility and could even significantly boost your income before the new year. [Click here to immediately for the details](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Economic Interests Besides Oil As for Saudi Arabia becoming more dependent on Western markets, Ian makes a good point by intimating it’s silly, considering the West is hellbent on getting rid of fossil fuels. But that’s what the Saudi/Russian relationship is about. First, they work together to keep oil prices as high as possible. Second, they’re trying to find other ways to trade to diversify their economies. The five main areas of bilateral trade are military equipment, agricultural products, construction materials, chemical products, and tourism. The Iran Issue Obviously, the Middle East isn’t one entity. I imagine the Saudis are far more uncomfortable about China and Russia canoodling Iran into the SCO than Russia selling China oil. That’s a far bigger deal. According to [The Cradle]( Russia and Iran just inked a new defense deal: The news of a potential deal between Iran and Russia to supply Tehran with 24 Sukhoi Su-35 combat aircraft is significant and not a passing event, as tensions between the two states and western nations continue to escalate. If Iran also sends short-range precision-guided ballistic missiles to Russia in conjunction with this agreement, those tensions will further intensify. While there has been no official announcement yet about the deal, Iranian officials have expressed interest in acquiring the Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets and the fifth-generation Russian Su-57. On 15 January, a member of the Iranian National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Shahryar Heidari, confirmed that the fighter jets will arrive next March and that Tehran requested other military equipment from Russia, including air defense systems, missile systems, and helicopters. That’s big and certainly not something that would make the Saudis happy. But Iran is the main country on the BRI; by a trick of geography, Saudi isn’t. That’s not fixable. [Rude] Credit: [The Cyber Economist]( Wrap Up Russia and Saudi Arabia are building a relationship based on mutual benefits. That’s just how any two countries should do it. But there are complications. However, those complications are nothing to the alternative: being at the mercy of a West that hates fossil fuels and wants nothing more than complete subjugation, if not outright destruction. Have a great day ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Back to the Caves, Peasants! [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Watching the Left eat itself is a pleasure perpetually renewed. What happened this time around? Imagine taking Arab money for a climate change conference and expecting it all to go to plan. And that’s no insult to the Arabs. They know what they’re doing. But Western leftists expect people who wear dishdashas to bow and scrape every time they walk into the room. It’s hilarious. When the head of ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation) is also the Head of the UAE COP28 delegation - and the conference hosted in the UAE, right-thinking folks should expect a reasonable pumping of the fossil fuel hate brakes. But environMENTALS are rarely right in the head. Let’s get to the facts. The Grauniad Breaks a Story! In a striking and hilarious deviation from the prevailing climate action narrative, COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has controversially dismissed the hysteria behind the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels. His statement sent shockwaves through Oxbridge dorm rooms, East Side studio apartments, and the hairy armpits of German Green Party candidates. As the head of the UAE’s COP28 delegation and the CEO of the state-owned oil company ADNOC, Al Jaber's stance presents a stark juxtaposition against the backdrop of increasing hysterical calls for urgent action against climate change. But since Al Gore thought it was ridiculous to have the CEO of a fossil fuel company also host the conference, you know it was the right thing to do. [In a pant-wettingly hilarious exchange]( with Mary Robinson, former Irish President, the Sultan had this to say: Al Jaber spoke with Robinson at a She Changes Climate event. Robinson said: “We’re in an absolute crisis that is hurting women and children more than anyone … and it’s because we have not yet committed to phasing out fossil fuel. That is the one decision that Cop28 can take and in many ways, because you’re head of Adnoc, you could actually take it with more credibility.” Al Jaber said: “I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.” Robinson challenged him further, saying: “I read that your company is investing in a lot more fossil fuel in the future.” Al Jaber responded: “You’re reading your own media, which is biased and wrong. I am telling you I am the man in charge.” Al Jaber then said: “Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves.” “I don’t think [you] will be able to help solve the climate problem by pointing fingers or contributing to the polarisation and the divide that is already happening in the world. Show me the solutions. Stop the pointing of fingers. Stop it,” Al Jaber said. Al Jaber's remarks, initially reported by [The Guardian]( and subsequently echoed across various news outlets, have left climate advocates with faces like beaten favorites. They view his statement as a significant setback in the fight against global warming, considering the UAE's prominent role in the fossil fuel industry. The president's assertion that there is "no science" to support the rapid discontinuation of fossil fuels runs counter to the widely accepted scientific consensus (among scientists who are allowed to have an opinion) on the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. [Secret Gold Back currency RUINING Biden’s plans for a digital dollar?]( There is a secret currency that’s beginning to spread across America. And you only have a limited time to claim one of these “Gold Dollars” for yourself. And since you’ll be getting it as part of an upgrade we want to make to your account… You’ll be receiving one of these [“Gold Dollars” as a FREE gift.]( You just have to watch this [short 2 minute video]( recorded for you and respond by Wednesday at midnight. [Click Here To Learn More]( Conflict of Interest The COP28 chief's comments have raised eyebrows, given his dual role as a top executive in the oil sector, leading to accusations of a conflict of interest. Critics argue that this dual role poses a direct challenge to the credibility of COP28, a pivotal event in the global climate action calendar. The UAE, a major oil producer, hosting the summit adds another layer of complexity to the debate as it seeks to balance its economic interests with the mounting global pressure to transition to cleaner energy sources. Al Jaber's statement not only flies in the face of the “established scientific consensus” but also seems to undermine the very purpose of the COP summits. And thank heavens for that! They’ve been a complete waste of time and money, except for those government and NGO workers with no other means of gainful employment. These events have historically been platforms for nations to unite and commit to concrete actions to combat climate change. His claim that phasing out oil will not necessarily achieve the world's climate goals contrasts sharply with the widely held view that fossil fuels are the primary drivers of global warming. David Miliband, who never became the UK Prime Minister and left the country after losing the Labour leadership contest to his slack-jawed brother, pointed out the inherent challenge in Al Jaber's stance. He emphasized that any vow to phase out fossil fuels at COP28 would be "totally" doomed to fail unless accompanied by concrete actions. He didn’t say how useless these statements are without China’s and India’s buy-ins because we’ll never get them. All Hat and No Cattle This highlights a persistent issue in international climate discussions: the gap between rhetoric and action. Despite 27 years of United Nations COP climate talks, a commitment to ditch fossil fuels has never been solidified in a final pact. And it never will be because the UN is toothless. This ongoing failure underscores the complexity of balancing economic, political, and environmental priorities in a world still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. It also explains why Greta Thunberg never protests in China. Prince-ly Vices Michael Shellenberger, author of Apocolypse Never, wrote on his [substack]( A new study in the peer-reviewed journal, Personality and Individual Differences, of 839 German environmental activists, suggests we shouldn’t be surprised. It found a strong association between environmental activism and “the dark triad traits,” which are Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and narcissism, as well as left-wing authoritarianism (i.e., antihierarchical aggression, anticonventionalism, top-down censorship). “Most of these associations,” wrote the author, “remained significant after controlling for Big Five characteristics, demographic characteristics, political orientation, and right-wing authoritarianism. These findings suggest that environmental activism, in addition to its potential positive outcomes, may also have a dark side in terms of activists' personality.” Indeed, none of that is surprising at all. Wrap Up Al Jaber's controversial stance at COP28 is significant in the ongoing global climate change and fossil fuel dependency discourse. It reflects the complex interplay of economic, political, and environmental considerations that continue challenging the global community's response to the climate crisis. It may also signal a turning point in the absurdity of some of the climate change arguments. Signing off from Europe, a continent currently 60% covered in snow. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. 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