King: Welcome to Earth, the Mining Planet

“In the next 25 years, mankind will have to produce the same amount of copper as humanity has dug from the earth in the past 5,000 years.” [The Rude Awakening] November 23, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( King: Welcome to Earth, the Mining Planet [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Enjoy your feast today with turkey, cranberry sauce, stuffing, and the rest of the trimmings. I must admit: I miss pumpkin pie with whipped cream on top. Have a piece for me. I’ll be back tomorrow with a short one and a video. In the meantime, I thought Byron King, patriot and rock-kicker, would be the perfect author for you to read today. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Byron King] BYRON KING “In the next 25 years, mankind will have to produce the same amount of copper as humanity has dug from the earth in the past 5,000 years.” The person who said this is a serious, credible guy. He’s a well-spoken, well-regarded mining company executive with a geology doctorate from a top-flight university. He has worked in both industry and academia for over 35 years. And he was paraphrasing a conclusion from a report by the National Mining Association, an industry trade group. In essence, per the speaker and the trade group he cited, for the world to do what many leaders and talking heads say they want, we will have to turn Earth into a mining planet, like in one of those science fiction movies. Not a movie: Bingham Canyon, Utah copper mine from space. NASA Landsat. Well, it’s a safe bet that nobody will dig up the entire globe. No way. But stating the issue helps to illustrate a massive problem that’s fast unfolding. That is, there aren’t enough resources coming from the world’s mines and mills to match the dreams of people who want to drive their version of change, if not social and economic upheaval. We’ll expand more on this in a moment. It’s worth discussing and understanding just to help illustrate the craziness of modern politics. And it will definitely affect the way you live. While on the upside, it’s investable. So, let’s (forgive the pun) dig into this… [You have (1) item on hold at our warehouse:]( Item #: [51987]( Status: On hold Value: Approx. $300 Claim by date: 10/06 at 11:59 PM To see how to claim yours simply [click here]( our Head of Customer Experience will show you what you need to do. [Click Here To Learn More]( First, let’s be clear. No serious mining executives anywhere, in their right mind, believe for even one minute that we’re going to turn Earth into a mining planet. You want a mining planet? Watch the 1992 movie “Alien 3.” (Alas, it’s pretty campy; not exactly up to snuff in an otherwise iconic movie franchise.) Indeed, as much or more than anyone else, mining people understand limitations on resource development. That is, when it comes to building a mine, many people will say no. And precious few can (or will) ever say yes. But the central point here is that the world is using more and more minerals and metals daily, especially copper, with even more demand in years to come. Copper is hot, as are many more metals and downstream materials. In fact, there’s an entire periodic table of items in growing demand. The question is, where will we get all of what the world needs? Native, elemental copper and cuprite, Altai Krai, Russia. BWK collection. Here’s one way to illustrate the point. You’ve heard of Tesla, of course, and its electric vehicles (EVs). And you’ve also probably heard that General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, and many other carmakers plan to phase out almost all internal combustion engines (ICE) over the next 10 to 15 years and transform their product lines to EVs. In other articles, I’ve discussed how EVs use about three or four times as much copper per car as an ICE vehicle, in the range of several hundred pounds each. More wiring, more copper in the motors, more copper in the batteries, etc. And multiply that by tens of millions, which is the scope of annual automobile output; globally, over 100 million vehicles per year. It’s literally billions of pounds of copper. Okay, carmakers can say whatever they want. And they’ll do what they can do. But if the world auto industry goes electric, even just partially the way that big guys are planning, requirements for related minerals and metals — copper, lithium, nickel, rare earths (REs), etc. — will more than double in the next decade. Hold that thought: “double.” Now, let’s go a step further. Because if the world goes to an extensive buildout of renewable energy — solar and wind, mostly — in just the way that Western governments have announced to date (the deep-green Biden administration comes to mind), then requirements for those same related minerals and metals will more than quadruple within 15 years. Hold that thought: “Quadruple.” And perhaps you’ve heard of plans for completely decarbonizing the global energy system. No more coal. Phase out most oil and even natural gas. And do it all by 2050. Yes, many people actually say things like that. (It’s really dumb, but they say it anyhow.) Well, to decarbonize the world economy and electrify pretty much everything will require well over six times the current global output of minerals and downstream metals, those same elements like copper, nickel, lithium, REs, etc. Hold that thought: “over six times.” Basically, per the automakers, the greenies in the Biden administration, or the world-changing world-improvers, humanity will require more than two, four, or even six times what already comes out of the world’s mines and mills. Hmm… Two; four; six… That’s one hell of a lot of stuff. And it all must happen soon, as in starting right now. All this futuristic new energy transition tech is over and above what we already see – as in, NOW – with, say, Chinese-made solar panels and wind machines unloaded from Chinese-flagged ships at Chinese-run ports like Long Beach. And it will carry on over the next three or four decades until America reaches that clean, glorious, electrified future that the arm-wavers promise. Ideally, of course, geologists would quickly discover vast, new ore bodies in a more perfect world. And companies would quickly build multiple versions of, say, Escondida, Chile, the world’s largest copper mine. Escondida, Chile — the world’s largest copper mine. Courtesy BHP. Umm… Wait a minute. You see where this is all going, right? Find and build a bunch more Escondida mines? And do it pronto? No, it doesn’t work that way. Because it cannot work that way, and it won’t work that way. Not. Gonna. Happen. In the past decade, mineral exploration budgets all across the world have been on a downswing. Discoveries are few and far between. Environmental regulations have increased. Water is always a fight, either to obtain it first or clean it up and discharge it after use. Oh, and there are just not enough trained, experienced people who know how to build mines. And so on. Meanwhile, people who live near potential copper mines (and much else in mineral districts) are, often as not, unenthusiastic about being displaced from their lands and homes, even when offered a job as a truck driver or water quality technician. And everywhere, governments stand with the proverbial hand out, ready to impose new taxes, fees, and regulations on every mining project because, to borrow a line from the old bank robber Willie Sutton, “that’s where the money is.” Even when everything works properly, you’re looking at time spans like 10, 15, 20, and more years to get a large mine up and running. This past winter, I visited one Arizona copper project that was “discovered” in 1983 (based on reconnaissance geology performed 40 years earlier during World War II) and which finally became a working mine in about 2012, a mere 29 years. So no, there’s nothing fast or easy about building mines, no matter how essential the minerals and downstream metals and materials may be, such as this beautiful specimen of lead-silver ore. Galena – lead-silver ore, from Dalengorsk, Russia. BWK collection. As you may know, I spend much time following metals and mining. The good news is that more and more people – industry, government, finance, academe – are beginning to worry about how to (literally) keep the lights on. The bad news is that the U.S. is not doing much of what must happen to keep those lights burning. Obviously, it’s nice when you flick a switch and things work. But the lights and appliances only work if there’s electricity in the wires, which came over more wires from a power plant. And that plant is a mass of complex machinery powered by some energy source. Somewhere upstream, the energy fuel made it to that power plant: coal on a train, gas in a pipeline, uranium in the form of rods inside shielded tubes. You can see where this goes, right? But per the people who want to change the world, we will go to solar and wind to run the country. We’ll fundamentally change the energy landscape, figuratively and literally, and then rewire the continent. And they mean to do it big time and fast, with fairy dust and magic, most likely because that’s the only way this can work. Yeah, right. Somehow, all the lights will still work. Your household appliances, too. Plus, the load on the system will power an EV or two in your garage. Totally reliable. Piece of cake, eh? You might think that with ambitions like what we see from the governing class and elite influencers, a big, powerful, complex industrial country like the U.S. would be in control of its economic destiny. But you would be wrong. I’m not talking about mere tie-ups and waiting lines at U.S. ports, where mostly foreign-owned and flagged cargo ships discharge their foreign-made cargo. No, America’s problem is far more basic than how long it takes for a 40-foot container of manufactured goods to land, clear customs, and make its way to your nearby Walmart or Target, let alone to the new solar or wind farm out in the deserts of Arizona, if not a backyard near you. The following chart, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), embodies one massive national problem. It lists the degree of U.S. import reliance on foreign sources for a long list of basic materials. And it should make you very worried. Indeed, read it and weep. [chart] All those red lines helpfully indicate critical materials that come to the U.S. from Chinese sources (“red,” get it?). The red lines show the percentage of Chinese supply, usually quite significant. It all gets back to converting Earth into a mining planet. The world (indeed the U.S. economy) runs on a foundation of basic materials, most of which the U.S. does not produce or does not produce in great quantity. So where do we get them? From other people, usually far away. And sure, we live in a world of trade. The U.S. economy fits into the global economy, and one of the great features of that is the ability to buy things our country needs from other nations. But right now, we’re on the cusp of massive change, grounded (excuse the term) in overturning the existing energy system and requiring explosive growth in demand for critical minerals, metals, and related materials. Where will it all go in the future? Well, it’s a rocky road ahead. But again… it’s investable. And we’ll discuss it more in future articles. For now, just look at the scale of what’s happening. Let it all soak in. Thank you for subscribing and reading. And Happy Thanksgiving! Best wishes… [Byron King] Byron W. King P.S. A Cornell trained computer scientist just shared something that could make 2024 the best year of your life. Put simply, he’s discovered a way for regular folks to use artificial intelligence to spot stocks on the cusp of a massive potential move. Like Horizon, which jumped 953% in 23 days right after this AI would have flagged it. Or National Instruments, up 837% in less than a month after AI would have zeroed in on it. [This high-powered AI system cost $10m to build.]( And it’s protected by a patent with the US government. But if you’re quick, this programmer turned multi-millionaire says you can take advantage of it… …and trade the stocks it just flagged. [>>Everything you need to know is right here.<<]( In Case You Missed It… Powell Isn't Steering the Economy… [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Economist, investor, and bestselling author Danielle DiMartino Booth sat down with our very own Doug Hill to talk about the Fed’s next moves in 2024. [Click here to learn more]( Click the pic or [here]( to watch the wide-ranging conversation. Here are some of the video’s highlights: Economic Impact and Consequences 📉 The pain of inflation going from 7% to 4% is progress, but not the end game - we need a deflationary environment for real relief from higher prices. 📉 Deflation required to ease the cost of living crisis typically comes hand in hand with job losses and a rising unemployment rate. 📉 Despite gas prices coming down, consumer sentiment reports that inflation is more problematic, indicating a decrease in income and increased spending. 💰 The interest in our debt is approaching a trillion dollars a year, which is twice as much as it was in 2022. 💸 "It's very feasible that after 2025 the US goes to hell in a handbasket and we're flirting with hyperinflation." 📉 Goldman Sachs put a price on its office properties at 50 cents on the dollar, indicating significant devaluation in commercial real estate holdings. 😨 The idea of hyperinflation in America not because of fed policy, but because of fiscal policy, keeps the insider up at night. [The 2 AI investing traps revealed [must read]]( Investor and entrepreneur James Altucher made millions during the crypto boom. Many “experts” are now saying… [Artificial Intelligence opportunities could be even bigger.]( But don’t believe the hype. Before you invest one penny in AI… See James reveal the [2 AI investing TRAPS]( that will doom many investors… Yes, making money from AI SHOULD be easy… But most AI investors will fall flat on their faces. Because they don’t know the 2 AI investing TRAPS. [See the 2 AI investing traps here now]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 🏦 The FED could become completely irrelevant. 💭 "Are we at the point where policy tools such as rates and QE are impotent in the face of a much more powerful factor which is the economy itself?" 🔥 The Federal Reserve may not be capable of singlehandedly putting out the fire in the corporate debt market, requiring equal amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Wrap Up Danielle, or DDB, as we call her, is one of the most informed commentators on Fed policy in the world. She literally wrote the book on The Fed, called Fed Up. As always, [I’d watch the video]( at 1.5x speed to get all the juicy bits in two-thirds of the time. I’ll still be writing through the week since there’s no Turkey Day in Italy. But tonight is the busiest bar night in America, so enjoy yourself and stay safe! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. 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