Powell Isn't Steering the Economy...

…the economy is steering Powell. [The Rude Awakening] November 22, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Powell Isn't Steering the Economy… [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Economist, investor, and bestselling author Danielle DiMartino Booth sat down with our very own Doug Hill to talk about the Fed’s next moves in 2024. [Click here to learn more]( Click the pic or [here]( to watch the wide-ranging conversation. Here are some of the video’s highlights: Economic Impact and Consequences 📉 The pain of inflation going from 7% to 4% is progress, but not the end game - we need a deflationary environment for real relief from higher prices. 📉 Deflation required to ease the cost of living crisis typically comes hand in hand with job losses and a rising unemployment rate. 📉 Despite gas prices coming down, consumer sentiment reports that inflation is more problematic, indicating a decrease in income and increased spending. 💰 The interest in our debt is approaching a trillion dollars a year, which is twice as much as it was in 2022. 💸 "It's very feasible that after 2025 the US goes to hell in a handbasket and we're flirting with hyperinflation." 📉 Goldman Sachs put a price on its office properties at 50 cents on the dollar, indicating significant devaluation in commercial real estate holdings. 😨 The idea of hyperinflation in America not because of fed policy, but because of fiscal policy, keeps the insider up at night. [Secret Gold Back currency RUINING Biden’s plans for a digital dollar?]( What you see here is a completely new form of money… As we speak, it's being used as an alternative currency across the U.S. minting in places like Utah, New Hampshire and Nevada… And since it’s made out of a thinly printed sheet of REAL gold... It may be the single best way to protect your wealth from Biden’s plan for a government controlled digital dollar. That’s why, we'd like to offer to send one to you today. But since there are a limited number, I need you to respond to [this message]( by Wednesday at midnight. [Watch this short 2 minute message that explains everything here.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 🏦 The FED could become completely irrelevant. 💭 "Are we at the point where policy tools such as rates and QE are impotent in the face of a much more powerful factor which is the economy itself?" 🔥 The Federal Reserve may not be capable of singlehandedly putting out the fire in the corporate debt market, requiring equal amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Wrap Up Danielle, or DDB, as we call her, is one of the most informed commentators on Fed policy in the world. She literally wrote the book on The Fed, called Fed Up. As always, [I’d watch the video]( at 1.5x speed to get all the juicy bits in two-thirds of the time. I’ll still be writing through the week since there’s no Turkey Day in Italy. But tonight is the busiest bar night in America, so enjoy yourself and stay safe! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Pentagon Violates Its Own Sanctions; Buys Russian Oil [Sean Ring] SEAN RING The friggin’ USG can’t even follow its own stupid rules. Imagine buying Russian oil, and then the USG sanctions you for dealing with them. Then, a few months later, it’s revealed that the Pentagon is buying Russian oil through a Greek supplier. How would you feel? You’d feel like you were dealing with a hypocrite! And that’s precisely what happened. But before I tell you about it, let my friend and colleague Jim Rickards show you a great way to avoid your greenbacks turning into Biden Bucks! Biden’s sinister plan is to create a government-controlled digital dollar we call “Biden Bucks.” And even though I’ve been warning you for months now, this new digital dollar could be the greatest threat to your freedom I’ve ever seen… [Click here to learn more]( I don’t want you to miss out. I have a limited number of these shiny things available, so I need to hear from you soon. [Just click this link and let me know.]( Now, let’s get back to the idiocy in Washington, D.C. Sanctions Against Countries With Means Are Dumb The Rude has always been against sanctions. Writing in June 2021, [The Rude]( stated: Like a White Castle-induced fart, [President Woodrow] Wilson described his sanctions as peaceful, silent, and deadly. Wilson packaged sanctions as a peaceful alternative to spilling blood over a grievance as with his sleight-of-hand with the war. Except sanctions are entirely civilian affairs. War didn't use to be like that. Civilians were largely left out of it. And trading with the enemy was not only standard; it was seen as a way to compensate civilians who were wrongly harmed. The late antiwar activist Justin Raimondo wrote in a post in 1998: The concept of economic sanctions as a weapon also assumes international economic regulations and enforcement agencies, setting up a cadre of bureaucrats who sit in judgment of "outlaw nations": in effect, the apparatus of world economic planners. And contrary to Wilson's predictions, real war has often followed the use of sanctions. Over 500,000 Iraqi children died as a result of sanctions after the First Gulf War. That was the price old Maddie Albright was happy to pay, despite another authentic and costly war following soon after. The price for what prize? After another nearly two decades in Iraq, that prize, whatever it was, clearly eluded us. In Strategic Intelligence, Jim Rickards wrote more succinctly [the three conditions that a country must satisfy for sanctions to work]( - The target country must have a small- or medium-sized economy with little robustness or resiliency to sanctions. - The target country must have limited access to alternative payment channels and few allies in any effort to obtain hard currency. - The target country must have limited hard currency reserves or gold with which to evade or wait out sanctions. Russia never came close to satisfying any of these conditions. It’s [a large economy]( with a ton of resources. It immediately adopted [UnionPay, China’s version of Visa](. And it owns [truckloads of reserves and gold](. The USG miscalculated. Or just prayed the plan would work. Because the benefits, allegedly, are juicy. [New AI 62 Times Smarter Than Einstein?]( [Click here to learn more]( AI is already 100,000 times faster than humans are… And by 2025, Elon Musk predicts AI will also be “vastly smarter” than any human. Masayoshi Son, the CEO of SoftBank goes as far as to predict that, over time, AI could reach an IQ of 10,000… That would make AI more than 62 times smarter than Einstein’s IQ of 160. Can you imagine the possibilities of an AI supercomputer which is 100,000 times faster than any human and has an IQ of 10,000? [Over time, AI could be used to cure cancer, enable a new age of space travel, and much, much more](. That’s why AI is set to change the world in ways almost nobody can imagine today. And anyone who invests now – while this new technology is still in its infancy – could see the chance at making generational profits. [Click here now to see the 3 tiny AI stocks we believe are best positioned to profit](. [Click Here To Learn More]( What the Sanctions Were Meant to Do The sanctions against Russia were designed to exert economic pressure on the country in response to its actions in Ukraine. The main mechanisms and intended effects of these sanctions include: Financial Sanctions: Restrict access to international financial systems and freeze the assets of crucial Russian individuals and entities. This aimed to create immediate liquidity problems for the Russian economy and its elites, limiting their ability to engage in international trade and finance. Trade Restrictions: Banning or limiting the export of certain goods and technologies to Russia, particularly those with military or strategic significance. This was intended to hinder Russia's ability to modernize its military and maintain its technological capabilities. Energy Sector Sanctions: Targeting Russia's energy sector, a critical component of its economy, by restricting investments and technology transfers related to oil and gas production. This aimed to undercut a significant source of revenue and influence for the Russian government. With China and India buying excess Russian oil and gas, this didn’t go as planned. Diplomatic Isolation: Limiting Russia's interaction and cooperation with other nations to reduce its influence on the global stage. The Global South’s support for Russia contradicts this. Asset Freezes and Travel Bans: Imposed on Russian oligarchs and officials to directly impact the Russian elite who significantly influence the country’s political and economic spheres. I’ll go to my grave thinking this was a crushing blow to trust in the Western financial system, particularly the US’s and UK’s. Well, you know what they say about the best-laid plans. What Actually Happened Despite these measures, the sanctions have faced several insurmountable obstacles: Global Energy Market Dynamics: Russia is a major global supplier of oil and gas. Many countries, especially in Europe, have depended on Russian energy, making it difficult to cut off completely. The high energy demand worldwide has also meant that Russia can find other buyers, softening the impact of sanctions. Sanction Evasion and Loopholes: As seen with the Pentagon inadvertently buying Russian oil through Greece, complex global supply chains can be exploited to circumvent sanctions. Additionally, countries not participating in the sanctions may continue to trade with Russia, providing it with economic lifelines. Russian Economic Resilience and Adaptation: Russia has insulated its economy from sanctions such as building up foreign exchange reserves, promoting import substitution, and establishing new trade relations with non-Western countries. Impact on Global Economy: Sanctions can have unintended consequences on the global economy, including increased energy prices and disruption of supply chains, which can lead to reluctance to fully implement them. Internal Support within Russia: Nationalistic sentiment within Russia may increase support for the government, especially if the sanctions are perceived as unjust or overly aggressive by the Russian public. None of these consequences are of any surprise to you if you’ve been reading the Rude for a while. “Despite Sanctions…” No, this isn’t the Onion or the Babylon Bee. This is real news. The Pentagon is purchasing petroleum products sourced initially from Russia, despite the Biden administration's comprehensive ban on Russian oil in 2022. This ban was implemented to weaken Moscow's military capabilities in response to its actions in Ukraine. Investigations have revealed that Motor Oil Hellas, a Greek refinery and a U.S. Department of Defense supplier, has been exploiting a loophole to import Russian oil, thereby circumventing the U.S. embargo enacted in March 2022. This situation highlights a significant challenge in enforcing sanctions, mainly involving complex global supply chains. The Russian oil, banned under the sanctions, is being cleverly rerouted through the Greek refinery before entering the U.S. military supply system. This has raised questions about the sanctions' effectiveness in deterring Russian oil flow into the U.S. military. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense contracts oil products through suppliers in Greece and Turkey, some of which may inadvertently be of Russian origin despite Western sanctions. It’s pretty much what India was doing: buying Russian crude at a discount, refining it in India, slapping a “Made in India” sticker on the refined stuff, and selling it to the dopey Europeans at market prices. Except now, the Greeks used a loophole to import Russian directly. Those sneaky old smugglers! Wrap Up You can’t make this up. Look, I don’t blame the Pentagon itself. It’s impossible to keep an eye on all these moving parts. But it does throw into sharp relief the impossibility of enforcing sanctions on a country with a required resource when your European allies aren’t all pulling on the same rope. Have a great day. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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