Newsletter Subject

A "Sucker Breakdown" Fools Investors... Again!

From

paradigmpressgroup.com

Email Address

dr@mb.paradigmpressgroup.com

Sent On

Tue, Nov 7, 2023 03:25 PM

Email Preheader Text

You’ve Been Hoodwinked | A "Sucker Breakdown" Fools Investors… Again! Baltimore, Maryland

You’ve Been Hoodwinked [Morning Reckoning] November 07, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( A "Sucker Breakdown" Fools Investors… Again! Baltimore, Maryland November 07, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Dear Reader, The same old story that’s hoodwinked investors since the dawn of time… You’ve heard of a sucker rally… But what about a sucker breakdown? We might have just witnessed one asinvestors jettisoned their stocks last week just before a huge snapback move that began with frantic short-covering rallies — and could end with an epic melt-up into the holidays. Here’s how it all started… It was looking bleak for the bulls heading into November. The major averages had just logged their third straight monthly decline, with the S&P giving back every cent of its summer gains. A messy geopolitical landscape continued to dominate the headlines as war intensified in the Middle East, fueling fresh protests throughout Europe and the US. A Fed meeting was also looming large over the markets. Any new hawkish comments threatened to trigger a fresh wave of selling, potentially shoving key stocks and sectors below support. Sentiment was in the gutter and the bulls were nowhere to be found. I’m sure there were more than a few investors yanking their money out of stocks, loading up on puts, and doing their best to resist smashing the panic button and retreating to the bomb shelter to wait out the crash. But as we discussed [last week]( these are the exact market conditions that should prompt you to watch for a bounce. Panicking while everyone else is panicking rarely pays. In fact, this type of herd behavior consistently punishes emotional investors – the folks who blindly buy stocks without any clue as to what to do next. Today, I’m going to show you why I’ve been on the lookout for a sharp rally, why the market bounced where it did, and how you can regroup if you missed last week’s big move off the lows. [Insider Reveals A Breakthrough New Way To Profit From AI]( Do not… I repeat… [Do NOT buy any AI stocks until you watch this short video in full.]( [Click here to learn more]( You’re about to discover a breakthrough new way to profit from the rise of AI that has never been revealed before. the types of companies we target with this strategy have shown top-performing gains like 1,167% in 11 days, 1,779% in 13 days and even 2,900% in just 3 days. Starting with $5,000, that’d be enough to walk away with profits like $63,350, $93,950 and $150,000 – all in a matter of days. But you must hurry… (As this is time sensitive). [Click here now for details on this new AI strategy.]( [LEARN MORE]( A Technical Tourist Trap On Oct. 20, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. Moves like this always seem to attract the technical tourists. These folks love to draw their little lines on charts and swear that stocks have to obey their every command. Of course, any break of one of their magical long-term moving averages spawns more than a handful of breathless reports proclaiming that the market is looking wobbly and cratering below an important support level. But as any seasoned trader will tell you, a moving average isn’t a mystical line that releases some sort of stock-killing poison when price breaks beneath it. In reality, it’s simply a smoothing device that helps us identify the primary trend. More importantly, you tend to see longer-term buyers stepping in to buy when price moves below a rising 200-day moving average. And in case you’ve been stuck under a rock (or inside a bear cave) this year, the 200-day bottomed out during the second quarter and has been pointed higher ever since. [chart] Again, there are no guarantees in the market — and a breakdown from these levels was (and still is!) a possibility. But rushing to sell everything or short the market on this so-called breakdown would be a fool's errand. It’s also worth noting that this break below the 200-day took the S&P right back to a confluence of support levels marked by the February and April highs. This was a key area the S&P needed to top to ignite the summer rally, so it should be viewed as strong support for the index, regardless of the relationship to the 200-day moving average. It’s Rally Season Despite the three months of choppy descent we experienced after the averages topped out in late July, last month’s drop shouldn’t have set off any alarm bells. Not only are pullbacks and downside moves perfectly normal events, there are also seasonal trends the market has closely followed this year — specifically how the S&P performs during a pre-election year. Earlier this year, I showed you the pre-election year cycle roadmap, specifically how the S&P tends to top out during the summer months in the pre-election cycle and remain in a range until a year-end push. One important caveat when dealing with seasonality data is it’s the trend that counts. And for the entire year, the S&P is more or less following these seasonal trends. Is it a perfect match? Absolutely not. But our composite continues to offer a general idea of what we should expect heading into 2024. While the large-cap index did rally more than I expected into the end of July, it remained well within a normal pre-election year cycle. August is generally a weaker performing month, giving way to a choppy, corrective fall. The market then typically finds a bottom in late October, and investors enjoy a final push higher into December. Sound familiar? This is exactly what we’re seeing play out in the markets right now. To recap: We’ve seen the S&P undercut a longer-term moving average and retest an important support area — all while investors loaded up on downside bets as sentiment sank to extreme bearish levels. The sucker breakdown is in full effect. There are plenty of reasons to feel bearish about the market. But right now, price is telling you to hold your nose and buy into a potential year-end melt-up move. What do you think? Will the rally stick? Or are the bulls still flirting with disaster? Let me know by emailing [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Critical Customer Service Notice]( [Click here to learn more]( Hi, this is Dustin Weisbecker, the Director of Customer Service for Jim Rickards. And I’m trying to reach readers about [a massive change we’ve just implemented to Strategic Intelligence.]( As a reader of Jim’s work, this change could have a direct impact on you and your subscription. What’s more, this change will be going into effect immediately – in fact, you may have already noticed it. To bring you up to speed, I just recorded a short video explaining all of the important details about this upgrade. [Click here now.]( [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… The Rabbit Ears of Unhappy US Taxpayers Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, I’ve lived in Italy for 19 months and still can’t speak Italian fluently. My six-year-old son, Micah, speaks excellent Italian, and his friends’ parents, my peers, are more than happy to ignore me and talk with him. It saves me a job. But to improve, I started translating words and phrases I often use. It’s a common strategy to improve speaking ability. A few Fridays ago, I stood in Piazza San Secondo with my Brazilian-Italian friend, Angelo, whose son plays with Micah. We speak terrible Italian to each other because he’s got to translate his Brazilian-Portuguese into Italian, and I’ve got to splutter through English in my head before any semblance of Italian comes out. We both just bought houses and got onto the subject of finances. Shaking our heads, Angelo asked me how I was doing. I said, “Niente ma orecchie di coniglio.” He looked at me quizzically, then his eyes widened, and then he burst out laughing. Nothing but rabbit ears. A man with rabbit ears. Every married man knows exactly what this phrase means mere seconds after hearing it for the first time. Usually, it’s with respect to a spendthrift wife, a recently made tuition payment, or a gigantic bar bill. But now, married or not, male or female, we’re all up shit’s creek together. While Paul Krugman can’t understand why people are so down on this allegedly thrilling economy, it’s easy to see why. Everyone’s already broke. A Few Facts First A few days ago, Visual Capitalist published [this excellent infographic on Global Wealth](. I’m only showing the top ten. Click on the link to see the whole thing. [Click here]( to see a larger version of the image above The two stats used are mean and median. Mean is a simple average. We take the total wealth and divide it by the total number of adults. However, averages are prone to big outliers. In this case, Warren and Charlie, Kim and Kylie, LeBron and Magic. These billionaires pull up the average. That is, the number is positively skewed. In the US’s case, the mean is much, much higher than the median partly because of the wealth inequality inherent in a capitalist economy and mostly because of the naked cronyism, enabled by an extravagant central bank and actioned by an irresponsible Congress, that passes for capitalism in America nowadays. Right now, the average adult has about a $551,400 net worth. Not bad. But the median US adult — the one in the middle of the pack - has only a $107,700 net worth. From [Visual Capitalist]( Many experts believe that median wealth provides the most accurate picture of wealth since it identifies the middle point of a dataset, with half of the data points above this number, and half falling below it. In this way, it is less impacted by extreme values and gives a good representation of the “middle of the pack.” The number of US adults is 257 million, assuming Visual Capitalist used the 2020 census and counted over-18s as adults. If that’s the case, 128.5 million adults have less than $107,700. And most of that $107,700 will probably be home equity. When you hear about “the hollowing out of the middle class,” this is precisely what people mean. But that’s not all. Let’s look at the big three economic numbers: GDP growth, inflation rate, and unemployment rate. For this, we’ll enlist the help of John Williams of [Shadow Government Statistics](. GDP Growth My friend and colleague Doug Hill posted this on our editorial channel, and I just laughed. First, I had forgotten about John Williams. He’s a Reagan-era economist who was disgusted with how the USG fudged the numbers. Williams became very popular after the 2008 crash. Here’s his estimate of GDP versus what the USG tells us: [Williams writes]( The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting. Concisely, Williams’ estimate of US GDP growth hasn’t registered a positive number since before Covid. So the whole “economy is growing” fairy tale turns out to be just that: a fairy tale. Inflation Rate While we were panicking about a 9.2% inflation rate, Williams was decidedly more pessimistic: [chart] [According to Williams:]( The ShadowStats Alternative CPI-U measures are attempts at adjusting reported CPI-U inflation for the impact of methodological change of recent decades designed to move the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. At its peak, Williams had inflation closer to 17%. Right now, his work suggests that inflation is still in double digits. That’s a claim many would agree with. Unemployment Rate And unemployment isn’t nearly as rosy as Krugman thinks. [chart] We’re still hovering around Depression-era numbers if you believe Williams. Many people do. [Williams explains (bolds mine):]( The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment. But the USG’s efforts to fix the situation border on the farcical. Rearranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic Before I get to the USG, let’s enjoy a bit of comedy. No, not from Paul Krugman. We’ve abused that privilege enough. This comes from Greg Ip, former Fed watcher and now editor at The Wall Street Journal. In his [Capital Account column]( the sagacious Ip wrote this: I suspect a lot of pessimism about the economy is “referred pain.” Just as part of your body can hurt because of injury to another, pessimism about the economy may reflect dissatisfaction with the country as a whole. Lately, there has been a lot to be dissatisfied about: intensifying political and cultural conflict and intolerance, the pandemic, the border, mass shootings, crime, war in Ukraine and now the war in the Middle East. In other words, Americans are so worried about the wider world that they feel it in their wallets. Really? In my experience, most Americans don’t give a rat’s ass about countries they can’t find on a map… But they are incredibly astute about how and when their government is picking their pockets. And just when you thought you were getting relief that Congress has forgotten about Ukraine, along comes Israel. [Zero Hedge]( summarized it succinctly: - The government will run out of money (again) in roughly two weeks, requiring Congress to act (again). - According to Democrats and GOP Neocons such as Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham, America needs to send billions of taxpayer funds to both Israel and Ukraine, and won't consider any legislation that doesn't combine the two. - House Republicans under newly minted Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), as well as a group of Senate Republicans, want Israel aid separated from Ukraine aid, while the Biden White House wants to jam a $105 billion foreign aid package ($14B to Israel, $60B to Ukraine) through Congress. - The House's plan (if they can even pass it) to separate Israel aid from Ukraine aid is DOA in the Senate, while both the Senate's combined package and the Biden admin's package is DOA in the House. - The House and the Senate also need to pass 12 appropriations measures for 2024, or face a 1% across-the-board cut on defense and nondefense spending, per the debt ceiling bill passed earlier this year. In an update, Biden already vetoed the House bill that would have (GASP!) separated Israel from Ukraine. But the real reason Biden was pissed off was that the GOP planned to offset $14.3 billion in aid to Israel by reducing the IRS's roughly $60 billion boost from the Inflation Reduction Act ($80 billion less negotiated cuts). I have to say, “Nice try, Mr. Speaker. Well played.” But what I don’t see is any help for everyday Americans. Where’s a middle-class tax cut? Where’s relief for Maui or East Palestine? And where the hell is increased funding for the border? All these taxpayer dollars are going out of the country, and none is going for inward investment. Wrap Up Unless and until the citizenry wakes up, this will continue. If I were Joke Biden, I’d take advantage until I came out of the Oval Office feet first. As for the Congressional gerontocracy, they’ll keep going until they get Feinsteined. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. The Daily Reckoning is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your The Daily Reckoning subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting The Daily Reckoning.](

EDM Keywords (364)

year would worried work williams whitelisting well way watch war wait viewed usg us unless unemployment understand ukraine types type trying trigger trend translate top titanic time thought think tend telling tell target talk take swear suspect sure suggestions succinctly subscription subscribers submitting subject stuck strategy stood stocks still started splutter spent speed speak sort simply showing showed show short shit share set senate semblance seen see security sectors saves rushing run rosy rock rise right reviewing revealed retreating retest resulted respecting respect reply repeat rent remain relief releases relationship regroup registered reducing recorded recommendation recap reasons reality reading reader rat range rally quizzically questions puts pullbacks publications publication protecting prospectus prone prompt profit probably privacy printed price precisely possibility popular pockets plenty plan pissed picking phrases pessimism people peers passes part panicking pandemic package pack open one offer obey number nowhere november nose none never nearly move mostly monitored money missed mind might middle micah message measure mean may maui matter married markets market map many man male maintain mailing mailbox magic made lot lookout looked look logged living lived link licensed levels letter let less length legislation learn know july job jim jam italy italian israel irs intolerance insights inside injury inflation improve importantly implemented impact image ignore ignite identifies hurt however house hollowing holidays hold hi help hell hearing heard hear headlines head happy handful half gutter guarantees group government got going gives give get generally friend found forgotten forced fool following folks fix find female feel feedback february fact face experienced experience expected exiting exit exactly everyone estimate errand ensure enough enlist enjoy english end employees emailing efforts editors editor economy easy drop draw dominate doa divide distortions dissatisfied disgusted discover director details democrats defined defense deemed decidedly dealing days dawn dataset cratering crash covid course counts country countries counted cost control continue consulting consider consent congress confluence concept company companies communication committed comes comedy combine clue click charts change case capitalism came buy burst bureau bulls built bring breakdown break bottom border body bit best began bad average attract attempts ass arrival appeared americans allow aid ai advised advertisements adults address added actioned act account according abused 2024 1994 18s

Marketing emails from paradigmpressgroup.com

View More
Sent On

08/12/2024

Sent On

08/12/2024

Sent On

07/12/2024

Sent On

07/12/2024

Sent On

06/12/2024

Sent On

06/12/2024

Email Content Statistics

Subscribe Now

Subject Line Length

Data shows that subject lines with 6 to 10 words generated 21 percent higher open rate.

Subscribe Now

Average in this category

Subscribe Now

Number of Words

The more words in the content, the more time the user will need to spend reading. Get straight to the point with catchy short phrases and interesting photos and graphics.

Subscribe Now

Average in this category

Subscribe Now

Number of Images

More images or large images might cause the email to load slower. Aim for a balance of words and images.

Subscribe Now

Average in this category

Subscribe Now

Time to Read

Longer reading time requires more attention and patience from users. Aim for short phrases and catchy keywords.

Subscribe Now

Average in this category

Subscribe Now

Predicted open rate

Subscribe Now

Spam Score

Spam score is determined by a large number of checks performed on the content of the email. For the best delivery results, it is advised to lower your spam score as much as possible.

Subscribe Now

Flesch reading score

Flesch reading score measures how complex a text is. The lower the score, the more difficult the text is to read. The Flesch readability score uses the average length of your sentences (measured by the number of words) and the average number of syllables per word in an equation to calculate the reading ease. Text with a very high Flesch reading ease score (about 100) is straightforward and easy to read, with short sentences and no words of more than two syllables. Usually, a reading ease score of 60-70 is considered acceptable/normal for web copy.

Subscribe Now

Technologies

What powers this email? Every email we receive is parsed to determine the sending ESP and any additional email technologies used.

Subscribe Now

Email Size (not include images)

Font Used

No. Font Name
Subscribe Now

Copyright © 2019–2025 SimilarMail.