Biden’s Cooking the Books

“You didn’t spend it” doesn’t mean “You made it.” [The Rude Awakening] October 30, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Biden’s Cooking the Books [Sean Ring] SEAN RING One of my favorite economics professors is Peter St. Onge. His X (formerly Twitter) account, [@profstonge]( is a hit, with famous creators like Elon Musk and Wall Street Silver among the over 9,000 subscribers, including me, who happily pay for Peter’s crystal clear economics commentary. Another over 125,000 follow him. It’ll be a pleasure to bring you my upcoming interview with Peter on the [Paradigm Press YouTube Channel](. By the way, if you haven’t watched my interviews with The Man Himself, Jim Rickards, on Israel/Palestine or the Banking Crisis, [click here to watch them](. It’s a $2 Trillion Deficit, Stupid! [On Thursday, Peter posted this video on X.]( For your convenience, I had the video transcribed. Because you’ve got to see the numbers to believe them. Here we go: Recently, [The Wall Street Journal]( reported that the federal deficit is actually a lot bigger than it looks because of the odd way that Joe Biden's handlers hid a fat chunk with their student loan bailout. Now the deficit was already looking pretty dire, hitting $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year that just ended a few weeks ago. That was up from $1.4 trillion the previous year, so about a 20% jump, which is pretty big for one year. Even that number was putting us on track, according to Congress's own bean counters at the CBO, to $45 trillion in debt by 2033 and - wait for it - $144 trillion by 2053. Well, it turns out that was an understatement because of what The Journal calls “the odd way” Biden counted student loan cancellations. Essentially, when the Supreme Court struck down Biden's loan handout, the $333 billion they were going to give away got counted as a spending cut, which would be like me thinking about buying a Corvette. My wife tells me no. So I brag that I just made $68,000. That little shell game means the deficit last year wasn't up $300 billion - $1.4 to $1.7 trillion - it was actually up $600 billion. That's a 40% spike on the year, taking it to a cool $2 trillion and dramatically accelerating Washington's $144 trillion debt utopia. I mentioned in recent videos that even those numbers are a pipe dream for three reasons: debt service, recession, and wars. On debt service, the government is now paying almost twice in interest what it was paying 18 months ago, projecting past a trillion per year and rising fast. Meanwhile, every recession hits the deficit hard. People who don't have jobs can't pay taxes, and recessions send federal spending soaring as governments hand out fresh trillions. So going by recent recessions, these would bring the annual deficit closer to $4 to 5 trillion. Then, of course, the wars. We seem to be notching one world war per year that for some reason American families have to pay for. Just this week, Biden and Yellen gleefully waved off fiscal concerns about paying for two wars, saying, “Why no, we can afford them all!” meaning you can afford them all. So toss all that in, and even the $144 trillion is starting to look very optimistic. So what’s next is brought to you by Unchained. What's next is we are in a fiscal death spiral, and our ruling clowns are stomping on the gas. A few weeks ago, I mentioned a fresh $5 trillion plan to hand out global warming money to third-world countries. We've got corporate welfare coming out, Washington's wazoos, much of it, to blow up things overseas, and of course, Joe Biden has now welcomed 7 million illegal immigrants to our welfare industrial complex, all of it with no end in sight. So yes, they will keep looting the treasury; in fact, they are speeding up. We'll keep going until either they're voted out, which is a remote prospect given both parties are in on the game, or until they break something, whether financial markets or what remains of the US dollar, at which point voters rebel, whoever is counting the votes. Here is a chart The Journal included in its piece: [Rude] Credit: [The Wall Street Journal]( [James Altucher: THIS is my top AI investment pick]( I’ve been called a “genius investor” by my fans… And an “eccentric millionaire” by some others. I think it’s because I make big predictions that [tend to come true.]( Today, I’m making my boldest prediction ever. Revealing the AI stocks I believe… Could turn as little as $10,000… Into $1 MILLION over the next few years. To show you I’m serious about helping you get in on this opportunity, I’m giving away one of my top 5 AI 2.0 stock picks – free. [See my top 5 pick here now.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Deficits = Bond Issuance First, let’s get some definitions straight. A deficit occurs when government spending exceeds tax revenue in a single year. A surplus is when revenue exceeds spending. The last time we saw a surplus was 1998-2001. The sum of all unpaid deficits is the national debt. That’s the $33 trillion number you’ve seen bandied about lately. So, there are two elephants in this room. First, the U.S. Treasury must issue $2 trillion worth of Treasury bonds to cover 2023’s deficit. Needless to say, running a deficit when you’re already this deep in the hole is stupid. (DC Swamp Rats would argue that cutting social welfare to the bone and risking civil unrest is far more ridiculous. From their standpoint, they’re correct.) Second, the federal debt - the unpaid deficits - is piling up at ever greater speeds. So, no matter how fast Chairman Pow is tightening at The Fed (monetary policy), the government’s fiscal policy is out of control. And if you thought the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, would sort things out, well, you’ve got another thing coming. [Speaker Johnson relayed the following points to Sean Hannity:]( - "We can't allow Putin to prevail in Ukraine." - US "boots on the ground" may be required to "stand with Israel" - Supports Israel directly attacking Iran - Russia, China, and Iran are "the new Axis of Evil." Great, just what we needed: another nutjob neocon. So, federal spending will continue unabated. Unfortunately, Americans are not only told lies about what’s spent, but they’re lied to about the accounting, as well. Wrap Up What’s $300 billion between friends? It’s a lot of bonds, that’s what. Americans are not only getting dragged into the Everything War, but they’re forced to buy overpriced tickets for the pleasure. Inflation won’t disappear just because the Fed is choking the economy. With the USG spending like drunken sailors on a war no one wants, with an undefined enemy and undefined objective, inflation may just take off again. And that won’t be the worst of it. I hope you had a great weekend. Have a great week ahead. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Grossly Deceptive Product [Sean Ring] SEAN RING I must disclose this immediately: I utterly loathe the World Economic Forum. To quote Obi-Wan Kenobi, “You’ll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” From Jacinda Ardern, the Woman Who Would Be Queen (of New Zealand), to Chrystia Freeland, granddaughter of one Nazi and chief cheerleader for another, to Justin Trudeau, the chip off the old block, all who associate with the World Economic Forum have proven themselves to be authoritarian nightmares. But the buck must stop somewhere, and that’s with Klaus Schwab, the co-founder and head of the WEF. A student of Kissinger (of course), Schwab has taken public-private partnerships to a new level. His goal has been to “infiltrate cabinets” to alter government policy. New Zealand and Canada are unrecognizable, thanks to his acolytes. I don’t mind the climate nuts so much. Due to our current economic woes and inevitable banking crisis, idiotic policies like net zero and ESG are being rolled back. Al Gore, John Kerry, and Mark Carney look like used car salesmen who’ve tried to stay relevant by shouting the loudest. But when it comes to my food intake, the “Eat Ze Bugs” crowd goes beyond the pale. And they must be stopped. I don’t usually write about health because, well, I’m a plump, beer- and wine-drinking, meat-eating machine. And while I try to take care of myself better these days, I won’t apologize for going for what Joe Rogan calls “mouth pleasure.” While I can regulate my booze and desserts, regarding meat, I simply won’t compromise. In Piedmont, the land of “Slow Food,” the meat is delectable. It’s so good; steak tartare is on every restaurant menu. Yup, we all eat raw meat here. No one gets sick. In fact, everyone is much healthier here than you’d find in other parts of the world. In this edition of the Morning Reckoning, I’ll explain why it’s a matter of life and death that we must eviscerate Schwab’s buggy plan. [Your Credit Card: Declined?]( [Click here to learn more]( Take a moment and picture this scenario: The line at the gas pump is getting longer as you insert your credit card for the second time. You decide to head in and ask the cashier what’s going on. There’s a long line inside. The woman in front of you looks frustrated. Everyone does. “There’s nothing I can do. You’re declined,” the cashier says to the man at the front of the line. It’s not just you. Everyone is declined. Something doesn’t seem right. A sinking feeling sets in as you realize something has gone terribly wrong. [Click here now for an urgent new prediction from a former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( What’s Your Point? My point is this. Maybe the economy did grow by 4.9% annualized… but at what cost? From [The Wall Street Journal]( But there are warning signs underlying the eye-popping numbers. Americans saved less and their incomes, adjusted for inflation, fell over the summer. That could mean the pace of spending will ease in the coming months. Business investment also stalled. Meanwhile, rising long-term interest rates, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the possibility of a partial government shutdown could cause economic cracks to emerge. The Journal continued: Americans’ after-tax, inflation-adjusted income decreased 1.0% in July through September, after a sizeable increase during the first half of the year. Their savings as a share of income fell to 3.8% in the third quarter, from 5.2% in the second. Consumers will have less of a buffer for purchases if they continue to draw down their savings stockpiles. A slowdown in consumer spending would weigh on overall growth because it accounts for most of U.S. economic output. Higher long-term interest rates could cause a cooling in several parts of the economy. Residential investment, which was weak earlier in the year, advanced 3.9% in the third quarter. But a climb in mortgage rates to near 8%, the highest since mid-2000, could weigh on that category as demand for homes slides. The number of small firms reporting that it was harder to access credit edged higher in a September survey from the National Federation of Independent Business. That could portend a pullback in business investment and hiring. Business investment in items such as buildings and equipment was essentially flat over the summer, Thursday’s report showed. In short, Americans dropped the last of their savings, Biden takes credit for “Bidenomics” working, and we now await a “cooling” rather than a “recession.” Doubtful. Income and savings are decreasing as the Fed slows down its moneyprinting. Rate hikes are on hold because the market is tightening, as evidenced by higher long-term rates. Needless to say, this doesn’t look so good. Wrap Up GDP is a flawed metric, a blunt instrument that misses many nuances and can be manipulated for political ends. The defense spending is up 8%, which shows this is really a spending indicator. As someone who writes about markets, finance, and economics, I can't stress enough the importance of understanding these components, not as gospel truth, but as part of a broader toolkit for making sense of the complex, messy reality that is the global economy. Keep questioning, keep digging, and don't take any economic indicator at face value. After all, in the world of economics, the only constant is change. Have a wonderful weekend! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. 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