War!

Investors take heed. [Altucher Confidential] October 10, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Now throw a potential Middle East war into the mix. Investors take heed. [Hero_Image] War! Urgent Note From James — Response Requested By Midnight [I just made a massive change to my Altucher’s Investment Network newsletter.]( This is one of the biggest changes to a newsletter in the history of our business… As far as I know, nothing like it has ever been done before. I’m adding 3 brand-new benefits to this all-new “Pro level” of Altucher’s Investment Network. And as one of my readers, I’d hate to see you left behind. That’s why – until MIDNIGHT tonight – [you’ll be able to upgrade your current subscription to this new “Pro level” by clicking here.]( [Seriously. Just click here now to see how to claim your upgrade.]( [Chris Campbell] CHRIS CAMPBELL Dear Reader, Technology, as you know, is a double-edged dagger. Like fire, it can warm us and burn us. It has just as much power to kill as it does heal. Its embrace can feel like either a hug and a stranglehold -- often without being able to tell the difference. Yesterday, we dove into the lighter side: As James revealed, hints of a Jetsons future abound. The larger century-long trend of ephemeralization is on track: where, as the futurist Bucky Fuller put it, we can do "more and more with less and less until eventually we can do virtually everything with virtually nothing," Today, however, we explore the dark side of such powerful levers… And the (non-zero) potential of getting flung back into the Flintstones. Yes, We’re Talking About War In a moment, we’re going to see a deep-dive on the current powder keg in the Mid-East. Before we go there, though… You might've already heard of Paradigm's latest project, The Bidenomics Survival Project. Even if you’ve never heard the term, you’ve probably felt the cold, hard pinch of “Bidenomics.” The facts: → Bidenomics has stolen $2.1 trillion from Americans’ 401(k)s → Monthly savings have dropped by roughly 83% since Biden’s Oath of Office. → In 2023, 57% of Americans can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense. Tomorrow, at 7pm sharp, our colleague Jim Rickards will present a potential solution. It's something he's been cooking up for a while. And before you think it… It's got nothing to do with bonds. You won't have to buy a single new stock. Nor does it involve any new options, either. Better yet… Participation in this event is 100% free for Paradigm subscribers (such as yourself). There's just one catch... If you want to participate, registration is required. [Click here now to instantly lock in your FREE seat.]( Clicking the link above automatically registers you for Bidenomics Survival Project, but does not obligate you in any way to attend the event. By reserving your spot, you will receive event updates. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt out at any time. [Privacy Policy.]( And read on for Jim’s macro take on the conflict brewing in the Middle East. New “WiFi Crypto” Token is Going NUTS! Only a handful of crypto investors know about this… But there’s a tiny, affordable device… That’s paid investors real crypto – every day, with zero work… Just for having a working WiFi connection! It sounds crazy, but it’s true… And [this 3:28 video]( explains everything. [Click here to view it NOW](. This Means War! Jim Rickards [Jim Rickards] JIM RICKARDS The heavy attack on Israel this weekend by the Palestinian militant group Hamas has shocked the world. So far, about 1,500 people are confirmed dead. That number will only grow. We don’t have many facts at this point, but it appears to be a massive intelligence failure by Israel. That in itself is shocking because Israeli intelligence is generally excellent. It also suggests that Hamas is capable of highly sophisticated intelligence operations of its own, which allowed it to conceal the attacks, which were highly coordinated. The attacks came from air, land and sea. Meanwhile, Israel has declared war on Hamas. What motivated the attack, which some people are calling Israel’s 9/11? Again, we don’t have many facts yet. But some evidence is emerging. A Hamas spokesman has credited Iran with supporting and green-lighting the attacks. That’s not a smoking gun, but it’s entirely possible — even likely — that Iran’s fingerprints are on this operation. Iran has supported Hamas for years in its efforts to undermine Israel. Why would Iran sponsor an attack on Israel now? Iran Wants to Block Israeli-Saudi Peace Talks The most compelling answer is to sabotage a potential peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s two greatest adversaries in the region. Iran wants to keep them divided. Israeli-Saudi talks had recently been making progress, so Tehran wanted to stop them in their tracks. How does this weekend’s attack benefit Iran? Saudi Arabia supports Palestinian independence. Iran hopes that the Hamas attack will generate a massive Israeli retaliation in Gaza, where Hamas is based. The Saudis would have to side with the Palestinians, which would drive a massive wedge between the Saudis and Israelis. Tehran hasn’t hid its hostility to a potential Israeli-Saudi deal. Just last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei actually said that regional “countries that make the gamble of normalization with Israel will lose.” That comment was aimed mostly toward the Saudis. And now, this weekend, Hamas attacks Israel. Well, it appears that Iran’s gambit has worked. Today the Saudis informed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that they’re ending all negotiations on normalizing relations with Israel. What if It Spreads? The greater danger is that the conflict can spread. Iran also sponsors Hezbollah, the militant/terrorist group operating in Lebanon. Today, Israel and Hezbollah traded artillery fire after Hezbollah fired on Israeli positions. If that engagement leads to an expanded conflict, it would force Israel into a two-front campaign, one in Gaza and the other in southern Lebanon. Israel could even attack Iran directly, which could trigger a regional war. We’ll just have to wait and see how it all plays out. But if Israel does ultimately engage in large-scale combat operations for an extended period, it might be constrained by ammunition shortages. To help support Ukraine, earlier this year the U.S. reportedly sent Kyiv 300,000 155-millimeter artillery shells that had been stockpiled in Israel. Those shells were intended for the Israelis in case it needed them. Israel may only have about 20% of that stockpile left. If Israel does end up waging a two-front campaign against Hamas in the west and Hezbollah in the north, that shortage could represent a serious issue. Israel does have a very powerful air force that could drop a lot of ordinance, but bombs are much more expensive than artillery shells and can’t deliver the sustained firepower that only artillery can provide. That just goes to show that the war in Ukraine has affected military balances in other regions around the world, as stockpiles have been whittled down to support Ukraine. It’s also possible that this weekend’s attack not only represents a failure of Israeli intelligence, but U.S. intelligence. U.S. intelligence efforts have been so heavily focused on Ukraine, other regions have been neglected, including the Middle East. The Economic Impact We also have to consider the economic impact of this weekend’s attacks. Oil prices jumped 4% today, to over $86. If the conflict spreads, it could dramatically increase oil prices. If oil shipments through the strategically pivotal Strait of Hormuz were shut down, it could result in a $20–30 increase in oil prices. For a global economy already showing signs of weakness, such an increase in oil prices would easily tip economies into recession — including the U.S.’ The signs are already there. The EU is already in recession and Japan and the U.K. are close to zero growth and heading toward recession fast. Within the EU, individual recessions have hit in Germany and Ireland, with Italy and France showing growth barely above zero. Then there’s China. The idea of a real recession in China may seem incomprehensible, but we may be witnessing one. The “reopening” narrative following the end of the ridiculous Zero COVID policy was always a myth (and I said so last year) but Wall Street bought into it until the data made its failure undeniable. Today, China is not only underperforming the narrative, it’s slipping close to actual contraction. The point is, the EU, China, Japan, the U.K. and others are in recession or close to it. Can the U.S. be far behind? The U.S. Case There are many signs that it is. Many are technical in nature and I won’t get into them today. It’s enough to say that all of the technical signs are unusual and all point in the direction of a recession. They all have good track records of predicting recessions going back to the 1970s and earlier depending on the time series. One of the best signs of a recession is when more mainstream or middle-of-the-road economists start sounding the warning. There are perma-bears who call for recession constantly (and everyone who does that is right eventually; recessions do happen). I’m not a perma-bear, but I do use predictive analytics to look as far ahead as possible so I can be a bit early in the warning game. But economist Mohamed El-Erian is not in either camp. He generally expects strong growth and is an optimist even in the face of adverse data. Now he’s warning about a recession. So when even he warns of a recession, you can be fairly certain that it’s either already here or arriving soon. I’ll continue to offer my forecasts using the best methods available and ample data. But one of my data points would include a warning from El-Erian. Now throw a potential Middle East war into the mix. Investors take heed. All the best, [Jim Rickards] Jim Rickards For Altucher Confidential White House insider exposes epic Biden mistake [James Altucher]( Thanks to the incompetence of President Joe Biden… [And the HUGE mistake he made on February 24, 2022]( And an unthinkable event has now happened… Bringing in hyperinflation like we’ve never seen… Crushing the value of the money in your savings and retirement accounts… Tanking our economy… And changing our country’s global standing forever. But there’s still time to protect your money. But you can’t wait. 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