Why I QUIT Investing, Part 2

Don’t Pretend You Can Play the Game [Morning Reckoning] October 03, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Why I QUIT Investing, Part 2 - What is an investor’s most important task? - The markets are too fickle for predictions, but… - How to play the hedge fund's game… [You have (1) item on hold at our warehouse:]( Item #: [51987]( Status: On hold Value: Approx. $300 Claim by date: 10/06 at 11:59 PM To see how to claim yours simply [click here]( our Head of Customer Experience will show you what you need to do. [LEARN MORE]( Las Vegas, Nevada October 03, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, [Last week]( we discussed how you can change your life by thinking like a trader. This idea has nothing to do with quitting your job to stare at a row of glowing monitors every second of the day. That doesn’t sound like freedom to me. I “quit” investing to trade because I enjoy keeping my own schedule, spending time with my family, and (mostly) ignoring the market pundits who are only blathering about stocks to sell ad space for prescription drugs and car insurance. It’s just easier to trade when you tune it all out. Thinking like a trader will not only dramatically improve your returns, it will also free you from the neverending spin-cycle of the financial media, bogus Wall Street analysis, and foggy economic prognostications that never seem to come true. More importantly, you can apply the principles of trading no matter how you invest – short-term, long-term, and everything in between. You don’t have to change your timeframe to succeed with trading. You simply have to change your mindset. Today, I’m going to dig a little deeper. Let’s get started… Fundamental Mistakes What is an investor’s most important task? If I polled a random group of people, I’d expect “research” would be the most popular answer to this question. After all, if you’re going to invest in a company, you want to know what it does, who its customers are, how much money it makes, various valuation metrics, plans for future growth, etc. These are all supposed to be important pieces of information. And information is what most investors crave. Many diligent market watchers – especially newer investors – love to dig into news articles, analyst ratings, and earnings statements. They want to feel informed. After all, the more you know, the better chance you have at picking a winner. Except this isn’t entirely true. Over the long haul, a company will live or die based on its ability to make money and grow. I’m not disputing these facts. But you probably won’t profit from these long-term success stories based on widely-available fundamental research or economic trends. Let me explain… [Warning: Could Massive Civil Unrest Come To U.S. Cities In 2023?]( [Click here to learn more]( The streets are mayhem… Everyday supplies at the grocery store are cleaned out… In the parking lot outside, you see a large guy yelling at an elderly man… The big guy has something in his hand, and rage in his eyes... Things look like they could get out of hand at any moment. Is this disturbing scenario set to play out in U.S. cities across the country? [Click here now for an urgent warning from a former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon](. [LEARN MORE]( Electric car pioneer Tesla Inc (TSLA) currently trades for 54x forward earnings estimates. Legacy automaker Ford Motor Co. (F) trades a little more than 6x forward earnings estimates. Does this mean Ford shares are a better “deal” than Tesla right now? Will Ford outperform Tesla over the next three years because Tesla stock is too richly valued? Or, is Ford stock cheap because it simply can’t compete with Tesla? Perhaps Tesla is on the cusp of a major breakthrough in its autonomous driving technology that will cement it as the most important transportation and technology company in the world. Or, maybe the opposite is true – Tesla’s biggest growth days are behind it and the company struggles to meet its aggressive goals over the next several years. No matter how much research we do (you can replace forward earnings with your metric of choice and repeat this process ad nauseam), we cannot confidently answer any of these questions. Sure, we can come up with some very serious stories about how the economic, political, and company-specific fundamentals will perfectly align… But it’s highly unlikely any of our well-researched ideas will come true. The markets – and the world – are way too complicated for this to consistently happen. You Have No Edge Not only do we live in a complicated, chaotic world – we also have to deal with highly sophisticated professional investors who can exploit limitless resources to deliver returns to their clients. In other words, it’s virtually impossible to discover information about a company that Goldman Sachs doesn’t already know. The connections analysts can exploit and the sheer amount of information they can obtain that a Main Street investor could never sniff is obvious. Plus, the major Wall Street institutions have access to billions of dollars (of course!), armies of quantitative analysts, mathematicians, and virtually unlimited computing power. So why should we attempt to play their game? Stop pretending you can beat these monsters after spending a couple hours Googling stocks. You and I don’t have an edge over these firms. There’s no information we could legally obtain that would tell us something about a specific company someone in a major financial institution’s research department doesn’t already have on file. I spent way too much time at the beginning of my career trying to figure out the fundamental research that would give me some sort of a repeatable edge in the markets. Looking back, I don’t even think this endeavor is possible – even for investors much smarter than me. Even the handful of lionized investing legends who have made billions in the market concede that many other factors played into their success, such as when they started investing. But that’s a story for another time… There is a way you can leave all this fundamental confusion behind. It starts with the concepts we’ve discussed so far. First, we acknowledge fundamental and economic analysis is important in the long-term – but it’s useless for attempting to determine when to buy or sell stocks. Next, we admit that we have no edge in the markets – and possess no magical information that can give us an advantage over the professionals. That leaves us with the big question… If fundamentals are flawed, what strategy can I use to beat the market? We’ll dig into this answer – and more! – next week… In the meantime, hit me up with your most pressing trading questions by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Over 62 And Collect Social Security? Take Action Immediately!]( [Click here to learn more]( [If you’re over the age of 62 and currently collect Social Security, you need to prepare now](. Because Biden has given our country the worst inflation in decades – and many warn things will only get worse from here. Worse yet, the Social Security check you receive now may not keep pace with inflation… [Which is why, if you don’t act now, you could fall behind in the months ahead](. Is your retirement at immediate risk? [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive inflation](. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… In Canada, It’s Springtime for Hitler! Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, I’ve never been a major fan of Canada. It’s probably why I’ve never traveled there. Canada is a frozen piece of tundra between Russia and the United States, with “free” healthcare and “affordable” universities, those things paid for with a [dependence on the US military for protection](. I remember hanging out with my friends in a London pub in the Noughties and asking a girl what part of America she was from. I had assumed incorrectly. And as a Canadian, she was wholly offended, walked away, and disappeared for the rest of the night. I guess she didn’t say “out and about” enough for me to tell where her accent was from. I’m sure the cowboys and the oilies out west are far more affable. But you can keep the Canadian “cosmopolitans.” That’s why I can’t stop laughing over this utter public relations crisis north of the border. Canada Gets a Case of The Clap It’s been nearly a week, and I still shake my head in sheer disbelief. How could you NOT know this old man was a Nazi? If you’ve been under a rock or not on X.com (formerly Twitter!), the Canadian Parliament invited a farm fresh, free-range, organic Nazi to their House to honor him for his service. Yes, this is the same government that accused Canadian truckers of being Nazis while having their bank accounts frozen. If you’re wondering why a commie like Justin Trudeau and a Jewish person like Volodymyr Zelensky are clapping for Nazis, it goes like this. Communism is an idiotic economic system that impoverishes any country it touches. But fascism allows corporations to do their thing (within The State’s wishes) … and then the government can tax the crap out of them at year-end. The Nazis, of course, were fascists. Ironically, the Chinese Communist Party is also fascist. The marriage of corporations and The State brings The State far more riches than it could ever get from deploying communism throughout the land. Just ask Mao. Credit: Toronto Sun So, The State (parading as communists) tells The People they’ve taken over those nasty private companies. But really, the State gives those private companies free rein within its directives and then takes its piece in the form of taxes. No organized crime organization could dream up a better scheme. Credit: [@catturd2]( Commies to Fashies I never really believed in the concept of a psy-op. It always seemed a bit too easy to use as any excuse for something happening, like an act of God. A psy-op, short for psychological operation, is a term used to describe a form of influence or propaganda designed to manipulate people's beliefs, emotions, and behaviors. Governments, military organizations, intelligence agencies, or other groups with specific agendas typically carry out psy-ops. These operations can take various forms, including disinformation campaigns, false-flag operations, or spreading misleading information to shape public opinion or achieve specific strategic goals. But Monday, as the story unfolded of how a Nazi — a real-life, genuine Nazi named Yaroslav Hunka — got a standing ovation in Canada’s parliament, it became clear to me that this whole thing was a psy-op. You see, the problem with communism is that it exterminates not only people but the economy. It’s the most idiotic economic system ever devised. When governments stop respecting private property, people stop working. It’s as simple as that. If you stop working, you have no economy. Governments figured this out a long time ago. So, governments stopped being out-and-out communists. They had to figure out a way to incentivize people to work while siphoning off the fruits of the labor. Unluckily for us — but luckily for them — a system like that already existed. It’s called fascism. Let’s Define Fascism Fascism is a complex and often misunderstood political ideology that emerged in the early 20th century, primarily in Italy under Benito Mussolini. It's a form of radical authoritarian nationalism that seeks to unify the nation by suppressing dissent, often through totalitarian means. Now, let's break it down a bit: - Authoritarianism: In a fascist regime, the state's power is centralized under a single leader or a small elite. This leader has the ultimate authority and often uses it to suppress dissent and opposition. - Nationalism: Fascism places a heavy emphasis on the unity and purity of the nation. It often involves a form of ethnic or cultural nationalism that excludes those who are considered "other." - Totalitarianism: Fascist regimes seek to control every aspect of life, from politics and the economy to culture and education. The state's influence penetrates deep into society, often using propaganda and state-controlled media to maintain control. - Militarism: Fascism often glorifies military power and is willing to use it aggressively to achieve its internal and external goals. - Anti-Communism: Fascism emerged as a reaction against the rise of socialism and communism. It opposes collectivist ideologies and promotes individualism, albeit within the constraints of a unified and homogenous nation. - Economic Corporatism: Fascist economic policy aims for a "third way" that's neither capitalist nor communist. It often involves a partnership between the state, labor, and corporations, organized into "corporations" based on their sector of activity. Of the above six characteristics, the US and Canada exhibit four in spades. Sure, they’ve traded nationalism for globalism. And they can’t come out as anti-communist yet. Too many of the hoi polloi think they’re in on the joke. But authoritarianism, totalitarianism, militarism, and corporatism are displayed for all to see. Isn’t a tiny elite like the WEF in charge? Isn’t the government trying to control our lives? How many bases does NATO have around the planet? Does Big Tech work with the government or against it? If you want to see just how off the deep end Big Tech has gotten, [watch this video of Palantir CEO Alex Karp saying his focus is to 'embarrass' competitors in AI to work with the U.S. government.]( It’s positively dystopian! In the context of today's geopolitics and economics, it's essential to be vigilant about the rise of fascist tendencies. The suppression of free speech, the erosion of individual liberties, and the concentration of power in the hands of a few are all red flags. Why? Fascism works well for governments… at least in the short term. You see, for most of the year, companies will operate normally as if they are capitalist entities (within the bounds the State sets). They will do all the accounting for you. They will do all the risk-taking for you. They will do all the manufacturing and shipping for you and provide any service you need. And then, at the end of the year, the government will look at the profits those companies made and take a pretty large portion of them, along with any finished products The State wants to function. You know, like the kind of spying software Palantir makes. Fascism, as an economic system, is best understood as the marriage of the corporation and the state. That’s how Il Duce defined it, and he was the first Fascist leader in Europe, so he ought to know. It’s like Big Tech getting in bed with the government… Or like Big Pharma getting in bed with the government… Or Big Banks getting in bed with the government. Sound familiar? And it’s not just the United States that it works this way. Look at China. China is ruled by something called the Chinese Communist Party, but are they communist? Are they doing anything the way that idiot Mao did? Are they starving their people? Deng Xiaoping, who succeeded Mao, said, “To be rich is glorious.” What the Chinese are doing right now is fascism. They have one ruling party. They let their companies do what they want even if they’re state-owned (SOEs), and then they tax the crap out of them at the end of the year. It works the same way in the United States. And in Europe. The danger is not worldwide communism. The threat now is worldwide Fascism. Wrap Up This episode in Canada’s parliament is to get you used to clapping for Fascists. Since Justin Trudeau is Klaus Schwab’s prize pupil, it makes sense they’d try this crap there. It’s not so much “NaziGate” as opening the gate for Nazis. After all, Chrystia Freeland’s grandfather served in Ukraine with Hunka. That’s why she was so enthusiastically clapping. [Max Blumenthal of The Grey Zone tweeted]( After serving as one of Hitler's top Ukrainian propagandists in occupied Poland, Michael Chomiak joined thousands of Nazi collaborators on the ratline to Canada during the 1950s. Following Chomiak's death in 1984, his granddaughter, Chrystia Freeland, followed in his footsteps as a reporter for various Ukrainian nationalist publications. Freeland was an early contributor to the Encyclopedia of Ukraine, which was edited by her grandfather's former boss in Poland, the Nazi collaborator and ethnic cleansing advocate Volodymyr Kubijovyč. Next, she took a staff position at the Edmonton-based Ukrainian News, where Chomiak had served as editor. A 1988 edition of Ukrainian News featured an article co-authored by Freeland, followed by an ad for a book called “Fighting for Freedom” which glorified the Ukrainian Waffen-SS Galician division. During Freeland’s time as an exchange student in Lviv, Ukraine, she laid the foundations for journalistic success. From behind cover as a Russian literature major at Harvard University, Freeland collaborated with local regime change activists while feeding anti-Soviet narratives to international media bigwigs. “Countless ‘tendentious’ news stories about life in the Soviet Union, especially for its non-Russian citizens, had her fingerprints as Ms. Freeland set about making a name for herself in journalistic circles with an eye to her future career prospects,” the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported. Citing KGB files, the CBC described Freeland as a de facto intelligence agent: “The student causing so many headaches clearly loathed the Soviet Union, but she knew its laws inside and out – and how to use them to her advantage. She skillfully hid her actions, avoided surveillance (and shared that knowledge with her Ukrainian contacts) and expertly trafficked in ‘misinformation.'” In 1989, Soviet security agents rescinded Freeland’s visa when they caught her smuggling “a veritable how-to guide for running an election” into the country for Ukrainian nationalist candidates. She quickly transitioned back to journalism, landing gigs in post-Soviet Moscow for the Financial Times and Economist, and eventually rising to global editor-at-large of Reuters – the UK-based media giant which today functions as a cutout for British intelligence operations against Russia. Poland and Russia are now exploring options to extradite Hunka to their countries. Do Poland and Russia want the same thing? Fascism makes strange bedfellows. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. 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