Why I QUIT Investing

and you should too… [Morning Reckoning] September 26, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Why I QUIT Investing - Trading was much easier during the first half of the year. Stocks were in rally mode and the gains piled up quickly. - What is a trader? - Because I think like a trader, I’ve learned to compartmentalize this information and only trade what’s happening in front of my face. [Response Requested]( 1/1000th of an ounce of gold available As a Morning Reckoning reader, you're being offered a 1/1000th of an ounce of gold when you upgrade your account. It will come in the form of a “Gold Back” - a new type of gold currency that’s starting to spread across America ([click here to view](. If you have not responded to this offer yet, and want to know how to claim yours… Please click the link below for details. [Click here to learn how to claim your new Gold Back Currency<]( Thanks! Amber Anderson Customer Service [LEARN MORE]( Baltimore, Maryland September 26, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, I have a special note for you today. But first, let’s take a look at the markets… As I type this note, stocks are attempting to post a modest bounce following another rough trading week. But the rally isn’t drumming up too much excitement. In fact, most stocks are sinking as the September struggle remains in full effect. Friday’s action was especially telling. No buyers showed up late in the day despite oversold conditions. When the dust settled, the S&P finished the week down nearly 3%, marking its third consecutive week in the red. The market weakness we’ve seen this month shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s paid close attention to the averages this year. Remember, stocks don’t move higher in a straight line. Pullbacks and corrections are not only normal, but necessary. If anything, you should feel uneasy if the averages don’t retreat at least 5 - 10% a couple times a year. We can study seasonal trends to try to determine when the market will hit these rough patches. For instance, the S&P tends to flame out around the end of June during a typical pre-election year, and remain in a choppy range until a year-end push. The averages are following this pre-election year script, with the minor exception of a strong summer rally that peaked at the end of July. August is generally a weaker performing month (check). Then, September and October get a little hairy (double check). If this pre-election year correlation continues, we can look forward to a final push higher into December. But for now, all eyes are on the averages for a bounce. Unfortunately, it might not be the bounce the bulls have been waiting for… In fact, we might see a weak relief rally that leads to additional downside into October. Regardless, the next market bounce will offer important information related to the market’s health – and how I’ll be looking to trade heading into the fourth quarter. But I don’t care if the market rises or falls this week, next week, or next year. This is simply information I can use to plan and execute my trading plan. [Biden’s 2024 Presidential Run Doomed To Fail – Thanks To New Inflation Surge?]( [Click here to learn more]( Biden has given America its worst inflation crisis in over 43 years. But if you think the worst of inflation is over, think again… [A deadly new “Second Wave” of inflation is coming – one which could send the price of food, gasoline, housing and more skyrocketing much higher than they are today.]( Will this new crisis mean Biden’s 2024 Presidential run is doomed to fail? [Click here now to see my urgent warning.]( [LEARN MORE]( What is a Trader? Trading was much easier during the first half of the year. Stocks were in rally mode and the gains piled up quickly. Now that the market’s getting a little dicey, I figured it’s a good time to take a step back and re-introduce myself. My name is Greg Guenthner, but everyone around here calls me Gunner. I’ve been swimming in the shark infested waters that we call the markets for nearly two decades. I considered myself an “investor” in the early days of my career. But the Great Financial Crisis convinced me to master the true forces powering the markets, sparking a quest that led me to classical charting, technical analysis, and showing anyone who will listen how they can learn to think like a trader… and change their life. But what is a trader? You might think of a caffeine-addled maniac, frantically mashing his keyboard as he stares at a wall of computer monitors. But this couldn’t be further from the truth. I love markets because of the freedom it offers to anyone who desires to learn and trade. Sitting at a computer all day doesn’t sound like freedom to me… Truth is, you don’t have to tie yourself to a glowing screen in a dark room to trade. The vast majority of successful traders in the long-term aren’t even daytraders. In fact, some of the most successful traders I know are only buying or selling a couple times a week – sometimes even less. Trading isn’t about timeframes. It’s about mindset. This doesn’t mean you have to bury your head in the sand and avoid any type of news or discussion about economics, the Fed, valuations, or any other market narratives floating around. Quite the opposite! I’m actively engaged with market news and events. And just like any other human, I have my own thoughts and opinions on these subjects. But because I think like a trader, I’ve learned to compartmentalize this information and only trade what’s happening in front of my face. Riding Waves I don’t care if the market is trending higher or lower. I’m not a bull or a bear. I’m simply taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves – long or short. Over at The Trading Desk, we surfed big rallies all summer. But when the market began to roll over in early September, we traded our longs for shorts. With the exception of a quick play on the uranium breakout, we’ve been loading up on puts all month. Right now, we have open puts on two slumping tech stocks – and we just booked triple-digit gains on a bearish crypto miner bet. While most investors are anxiously watching their long-term holdings give back their summer gains, we’re trading the downside action and booking profits. The market weakness we’re seeing right now might turn into a bigger correction. Or, the bulls might step in and save the day. We just don’t know. No one does! Remember, there were plenty of good reasons to avoid stocks back in January, just as there were legitimate reasons for bulls to hang onto their stocks back in August. But if you’re thinking like a trader, you’ve prepared for every scenario. You took some profits on your longer-term positions in July and August when the market was running hot. You honored your stop losses on the trades that didn’t work out. And you continue to let price dictate your decisions. The result is a trading account that consistently grows – whether the market is trending up, down, or sideways. I’ll write more about these ideas next week… In the meantime, hit me up with your most pressing trading questions by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [The #1 Crypto SECRET No One’s Telling You]( This ordinary package hides a surprising crypto secret… [Click here to learn more]( [CLICK HERE to See What’s In the Box]( It’s a little-known device with the power to deliver you FREE crypto income… Every day, with ZERO work! In fact, Stacy H. reportedly made a staggering $10,000 in just ONE YEAR thanks to this device! [Click here now]( to discover what it is, and how YOU can get your hands on one yourself. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Do You Have the Right to Feel Safe? Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Greetings from lovely Northern Italy. I hope all’s well. Thank you for last week's fantastic stories and feedback about the IRS piece. I may publish that part of the mailbag later. But right now, I’m unsure if any readers who wrote in would want me to divulge their cases. Again, thanks for writing (and the kind words as well)! Today, I'll talk about the citizenry rather than the government screwing things up. The rich citizenry. Louis CK is a comedian, but I’ve never watched his stuff. He became famous from 2000-2018 when I didn’t care much about America besides its movies. When I settled in the Philippines in 2019 and bought a TV with YouTube automatically uploaded, I caught up on much of American culture of the past two decades. I learned about Louis CK and Joe Rogan, whom I had never heard of. I saw why people thought Tom Brady was better than Joe Montana. LeBron, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin…. I had lots of catching up to do. I also saw [when Louis CK was caught with his pants down]( (really) and was canceled. By then, most people with a modicum of gray matter knew what a degenerate hive Hollywood was. So, it surprised no one. Whatever. But about seven months ago, Louis CK was on the Joe Rogan Experience. I missed it because I have no idea how anyone has two hours a day to listen to podcasts. Yesterday, writer Ryan James Girdusky, author of the [National Populist Newsletter]( and [They're Not Listening: How The Elites Created the National Populist Revolution]( posted this on X.com, which I retweeted with a comment: Credit and follow me at [@seaniechaos]( Welp, I’ve given my opinion away. But to be fair, here is the transcript of the drivel Louis CK spouted: I think that the most, I don't know, there's a form of life. It's a weird thing because you're not supposed to be happy, and you're not supposed to be safe. I think that that's the problem is that people expect that, and it's not a good way to… you're not happy when you're safe. You're not happy when you're happy. When you're secure. …I was really listening to something about the border, these people just trying to come into America, and some people are like, “Well, if we let just a few in, it's a mess.” There's no good answer. What if we just let the ones in who are really upset? Yeah, but we can't let 'em all in. When liberals try to say, it's like the dumbest position they get into, it's like, “Well, we can, no, we can't keep let 'em in here. Got to keep 'em out. But we really like 'em and it's great that they're brown and sorry, but there's an impossible…” And then the right takes over, and they sound racist. And then the left takes over. They just sound stupid. But my feeling is they should open it, the border. And just let 'em pour in, let everybody pour in. And then the answer, which is, “Well, then there'll be all these problems.” Yes, there should be. It shouldn't be so great here. It shouldn't be so great here is what I'm saying. In America, it shouldn't be. It's a weird thing to sequester a certain group of people and try to keep upping their lifespan and their lifestyle and just keep trying to increase that for this group of people and then this pressure of people trying to come in so they can enjoy it. There's something wrong with that. That's not a system that's working, and it forces people to do cruel things to other people. There are a lot of people that die so Americans can be safe. They're just dying… Weddings that are drone bombed in Yemen because the guy said something that might have resulted in American insecurity. Not even definite American deaths, but just so we can breathe a little easier. Folks die, and folks do labor in unsafe places so that we can keep the prices where we like 'em. There's so much about American life that other people pay for it. That's part of it. But also it's not good for us either. It's not a good way to live in a gated community. If you let folks pour in any other wave, it'll kind of slosh, and then just things will be different. I don't know what'll really happen. A bunch of people will they just come with knives and start killing everybody? I don't think so. I don't know what'll happen, but it's just weird to me. I mean, I lived in Mexico when I was a kid. My dad's Mexican and I remember my first cogent thoughts were in Mexico, and then I came to America. I mean it was Mexico City. It was beautiful. Also, it was a city before America had anything. It's this very old European kind of place. Mexico, it's a beautiful country, and it's got a lot more depth to it than anybody knows here. And we're not really sharing with them because they're kind of like the other guys because we're afraid of how many of them are dying to come here to work for us for very little. Like this thing. I don't know. I don't know. This is shit I don't know about. But the feeling I get is that the more American security, this feeling of more oxygen in the air. It's not good in the end for everybody. I could write a book unpacking this nonsensical crap. Instead, I’ll pick apart the stuff I bolded above. “…you're not happy when you're safe. You're not happy when you're happy. When you're secure.” I genuinely believe people feel this way, and it’s part of the reason they move to big cities. I loved the dangerous grittiness of London… in my 20s. I proudly showed off my scar from that barroom brawl that left a titanium plate in my head. But as a father and husband? I wouldn’t move to London right now for all the tea in China. It’s just too dangerous. “It shouldn't be so great here is what I'm saying. In America, it shouldn't be.” When you have no conception of history, of what the men and women who first settled in America went through, it’s easy not to understand what made America great. And that’s a massive part of the problem. You live in the “city on the hill.” And you have no idea why it became that way. As libertarian economist Per Bylund once brilliantly tweeted: Too many Americans don’t have a damn clue because they’ve been riding on the economic momentum better men and women created. “It's a weird thing to sequester a certain group of people and try to keep upping their lifespan and their lifestyle and just keep trying to increase that for this group of people…” What if we called this group of people “family?” Is it weird to keep your family in your house as healthy, safe, and long-lived as possible? And let’s extend this to like-minded people who traveled across the world with you and settled in this magnificent new country. And what about the descendants of those settlers who love their country, inherited their ancestors’ property, and want to enjoy and improve it as much as possible? If you think about it, Louis CK’s statement is an indictment of private property. The most important thing you own is yourself. And if like-minded people enter into voluntary contracts with each other to do such nefarious things as “upping their lifespan and their lifestyle,” then it’s no one else’s business. “That's not a system that's working, and it forces people to do cruel things to other people.” Yes, Louis CK, the system is working. And no, keeping out those who don’t share the same values isn’t cruel. It’s the right of those owners (citizens). “There's so much about American life that other people pay for it. That's part of it. But also it's not good for us either. It's not a good way to live in a gated community.” Then why do all of your LA friends live in a gated community? As for countries that act like gated communities, I give you Singapore, the UAE, and Monaco. All of those places are fabulous, rich, and safe. “A bunch of people will they just come with knives and start killing everybody? I don't think so. I don't know what'll happen, but it's just weird to me.” No, Louis CK. Of course, a “bunch of people” aren’t going to come with knives and start killing everybody. This is called the fallacy of composition. Just because most people aren’t killers doesn’t mean they’re all not killers. The question is, “How many of those would you tolerate to let the ‘good people’ in?” “Mexico, it's a beautiful country, and it's got a lot more depth to it than anybody knows here. And we're not really sharing with them because they're kind of like the other guys because we're afraid of how many of them are dying to come here to work for us for very little.” For one, you can go back there. I thought Italy would be better for my family and me than America. There’s no shame in upping sticks and moving. Second, we’re under zero obligation to “share” with anyone. How about sharing with those Americans who live below the poverty line? Third, mass immigration kills wage growth. So, the “very little” part is accidentally poor salesmanship. Does Switzerland let in people who’ll do work for nothing? Of course not. That’s part of the reason their country looks like heaven. Wrap Up I know I’m not an American citizen anymore, and I haven’t lived there for nearly a quarter century. But my goodness, has the collective IQ of America dropped that much since I left? Do people inside the country want to sabotage the place? I hope not. The British think the US is the last, best hope for the world. I’m not sure about that. But I certainly don’t want America to sink because of its citizens’ staggering ignorance. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. 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