Byron Answers Your Questions

Churchill, wealth building, and those darn UFOs again! [The Rude Awakening] September 21, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Byron Answers Your Questions - Was Churchill flashing a peace sign? - More wealth-building hints, please… - About those darn UFOs… [Shocking U.S. Map Exposes $1.2T Opportunity]( Exactly 2,935 miles away from Wall Street lies [the biggest profit opportunity]( of your lifetime. A little-known opportunity which is creating an average of $32.8 BILLION in new wealth EVERY SINGLE DAY… That’s $1.2 trillion per year… And if you act fast, you have the chance to get in on the action starting right away. [Click here now for details](. [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Good morning from cool Asti. Since Byron received some mail, I thought he should answer them. Luckily for me, he was happy to oblige. I’ll leave it to him. See you tomorrow, Sean [Byron King] BYRON KING My son tells me that in Army boot camp, drill sergeants required twenty pushups from a recruit for every letter he (or she) received. It’s nothing mean, though. Those pushups are a training technique to promote personal strength and unit bonding. Well, long ago on my end, I, too, did pushups for a Marine Corps drill instructor. And fortunately for me, at this stage of life, my colleague Sean Ring doesn’t follow the Army or Marine approach. Otherwise, my old rotator cuff injuries would flare up. I mention all this to thank you for your emails regarding my recent articles in the Rude Awakening. Apparently, people read my work and send in comments. And Sean passed them along. Funny how that works. Let’s kick off with this from Marian: “I just love Byron’s essay on Trump and the courtroom set-up for his campaign! Thank you for good morning chuckles.” I appreciate your kind note. And I’m pleased you found some macabre humor in my discussion of what’s happening at a slew of courthouses. I intended to highlight modern American politics' bizarre political dysfunction, which is evident in the weaponization of courts and legal process against political opponents. By way of further background, any email involving Donald Trump usually has what we call “high opening rates” in our industry. That is, a Trump-themed article attracts eyeballs and clicks. Heck, I could write a column about the best gold mine or oil company in the world, and it would still not get the action and traction of a subject line that mentions something about Trump. Hmm… Maybe I should write an article about how “Trump Discovers New Gold Deposit in Nevada!” Or perhaps, “Trump Strikes Offshore Oil Bonanza!” People would open those notes, I suspect. I know that I would. Now this, from reader Ron, concerning a photo in the same article that showed both Donald Trump and Winston Churchill flashing a V-shaped signal with their index and middle fingers: “Neither Trump nor Churchill were giving the ‘Victory’ sign. In Great Britain, the victory sign is with the hand turned around, with the palm of the hand facing out. The pictures show something entirely different. The manner in which both of them were motioning, they were … flipping the bird at their opponents.” Yes, my error. And not just Ron, but several others pointed out to me that the two-finger salute, with the back of one’s hand facing away, is not at all the “Victory” symbol. One dear friend mentioned that the Churchill photo was taken during the Battle of Britain, and Churchill flashed his diverging fingers to express his view of the German Luftwaffe. Just a hunch here, but I suspect that Trump – flashing that same two-finger symbol – holds much the same view of the army of legal-eagle prosecutors who hound him as Churchill had of Hitler’s bombers that darkened the skies above England. [Over 62 And Collect Social Security? Take Action Immediately!]( [If you’re over the age of 62 and currently collect Social Security, you need to prepare now](. Because Biden has given our country the worst inflation in decades – and many warn things will only get worse from here. Worse yet, the Social Security check you receive now may not keep pace with inflation… [Which is why, if you don’t act now, you could fall behind in the months ahead](. Is your retirement at immediate risk? [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive inflation](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Now this, from reader Jackson: “In the guest post, [Byron] said: ‘We dissect events to discern what they mean to your wealth, investments, and long-term financial security.’ He did warn us that he would talk about politics, and he did offer an amusing and probably accurate warning about the likely shape of the political campaign. But where is the analysis of the meaning of that circus for my (vastly insufficient) wealth, (meager) investments, and long-term financial (in)security? Perhaps just a hint or two? Say, for example, ‘look into plays on [various investment avenues – BWK] … Of course, any actual suggestions would be far superior to my speculations, but that is why I subscribe to Paradigm Press. I don’t demand actionable recommendations in the free newsletters, but I do hope for insights that I might be able to take advantage of, if I were smarter and richer. Having said all that, I confess that some of the most enjoyable posts have been about the travels of the Ring family and the explorations of the peripatetic King. Please keep those coming, whether they contain any wealth-building hints or not. Thanks!” First, thank you, Jackson. And yes, you are on target with the point about the “free newsletters,” although I prefer to use the term “letters which show up at no extra cost to you.” That is, nothing is really free. Not lunch, not newsletters. Paradigm is subscriber-driven, meaning we do NOT take advertising dollars from anyone. There’s no way for a third party to buy their way into the editorial content. We pay our bills based on payments from subscribers, not advertisers; thus, we keep our loyalties focused on actual readers. In contrast, the name-brand news conglomerates accept serious bucks from advertisers, some of whom are… hmm, how to say it? … truly unsavory. And does it make for heavy bias? Well… Consider a few top-tier famous pubs like The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The New York Times, or those usual-suspect TV/cable company news sites, y’know… with the celebrity columnists and blow-dried talking heads. Their pages and airtime are filled with paid content (e.g., over $250,000 for a full page in the Sunday edition of The New York Times) written by third parties, all geared to influence you to an advertiser’s agenda. Along those lines, you had better believe that people who manage editorial content at Big News know exactly who writes those big checks. As an aside, consider how, towards the end of his tenure at Fox News, Tucker Carlson sharply criticized Pfizer and other medical goop-makers, particularly over their Frankenstein, mRNA, and COVID injection concoctions. And hey, what do ya know? Tucker was soon gone from Fox. Sure, he likely got the boot for many other reasons, not “just” for dissing Pfizer. But it didn’t help that he rocked the editorial boat and splashed dirty saltwater onto the wrong people, namely the ones with deep checkbooks. This brings us back to how Paradigm is here to look out for readers' interests, especially since we have no paid advertisers. Another way to say it is that we must write solid, helpful content to keep our subscribers happy and signed up. In articles for the paid-up newsletters, such as what I prepare for Jim Rickards or Zach Scheidt, I (almost) always mention a couple of investable “names,” if you get my drift. Although the letter may or may not track the names in a portfolio – it depends on which pub – I still offer names. And be assured: if I say a kind word or two about a specific company, it’s absolutely because I follow it and like it. I’ve looked deeply into the outfit. I’ve read up on it, met management, asked many questions, and probably visited a site or two to inspect the assets and operations and speak with workers. For me, I’ve never met Trump. I’ve never been to a Trump rally. And that Trump article in the Rude was a spur-of-the-moment effort. Indeed, I usually stay away from raw politics unless it’s to lambaste high taxes, heavy regulations, dumb or ignorant energy, monetary policy, and things like that. And even then, the idea is to make a quick point about bad government and bring it home to some level of useful financial commentary. In that Trump article, I pointed out that countries that toss former leaders into jail tend not to do well in the world. And I even mentioned the unmentionable, namely the breakup of the former Soviet Union, with the implication of how – just maybe – something like that could happen here. And in all seriousness, don’t dismiss the idea of a U.S. crackup. Why not? Well, on my end, I was around back in the late 1980s/early 90s. I was on active duty in the Navy and spent a couple of years working at a Pentagon job, specifically on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations. It was the top end of the Navy, where “everything” flows across the desk, and from that perch, I saw all sorts of deep intelligence on the USSR. Okay, now the punchline: I promise you, I assure you, with my hand on a stack of bibles… that NOBODY saw the Soviet collapse coming. Nobody predicted that a vast, populous, nuclear-armed nation-state would disappear. Well, not until the roof was clearly caving in, and then a few geniuses explained how they saw it from a country mile. (Yeah, right.) My investment point on that matter is – and listen up! – that you should procure some if you don’t already hold some hard assets in your deep emergency stash (gold, silver come to mind, and brass, if you get my drift). The worst thing that could happen is that the country pulls through its current mess, and you’ll have some nice, pretty gold and silver. And a few cartridges in a nice box. Okay, one more note from Claudio: “Regarding your discussion with [former U.S. energy secretary Rick] Perry about the alleged ‘aliens’ and the govt’s supposed interaction with them, I’d like to recommend the ‘Alien Contact’ trilogy by scientist and paranormal researcher Jacques Vallee. In it, he makes a good argument that the UFO phenomenon is not in fact physical ETs coming to visit Earth from somewhere else, but rather a kind of control system intended to influence (or rather manipulate) humanity’s beliefs and thereby their progress. This also applies to the entire collection of paranormal phenomena of which UFOs and aliens are only the latest example. I know this sounds pretty out there, but to me, it’s the most plausible explanation of it and makes more sense than the classic ‘UFOs are alien ships’ theory most people believe. Also, the third book in the trilogy is almost entirely devoted to the disinformation ops conducted by the military and spy agencies to try and discredit anyone who gets too close to the truth about the military’s quite ordinary black-budget programs and keep them secret.” Thank you, Claudio. Recently, I spent much of an entire day in the company of Secretary Perry, and we discussed many things: the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), U.S. refining, oil imports, offshore development, nuclear power, and related issues of uranium, as well as renewable energy. The part of our discussion about “UFOs” was pretty much a small sideline of the get-together, but yes… talking about such things is quite a different topic, especially with the guy who used to control 17 U.S. national laboratories. My view of the UFO matter is that you never say “never.” Because you never know, do you? Still, it’s far more realistic to think that most of the odd phenomena people report have some terrestrial origin, although it might not be clear to any particular individual. In my days in the Navy, as combat-coded aircrew in a tactical jet, I never saw anything I’d call a UFO. I saw strange clouds and sea phenomena, weird sunlight reflections, flashing meteorites, streaking missile tests, lumbering Soviet bombers, and more. But I never glimpsed what people call a “flying saucer,” not even close. It’s fair to say that the U.S. military and defense contractor base have many different programs at the far edge of unclassified, rapidly moving into the deep, dark, classified realm. Of course, we have highly secretive programs with a public face, like the F-35, which is way more (way! more!) than a mere fighter plane, or the just-revealed B-21 bomber, again, which is not your father’s proverbial Oldsmobile. And then, you might wonder… Is there a “next generation” fighter out there? Yes, it’s well hidden in the “black program” arena. And what can we say about it? Hmm… Just about nothing. No words, no images, no clues available. Are there programs even deeper than next-gen stuff? Darker? Blacker? Super-black? Beyond-black? Are there programs so deep that only a handful of people out of 350 million in the country even suspect? Well, we can only surmise, right? Perhaps there are astonishing things that utilize truly novel variations on physical principles, yes? We’re talking about astonishing materials and entirely different ways of generating propulsive force. Maybe, right? And my view is to give the former U.S. energy secretary, Rick Perry, credit for knowing when to stop talking. At the same time, whatever is happening in the distant shadows of advanced tech will all require a whole bunch of exotic materials, many of which are based on critical metals that come from critical minerals. This brings me to some investment guidance suitable for a “free” (see above) newsletter: look at mining plays that deal at least in part with exotic elements. And these range from extraction giants like Rio Tinto (RIO) to processing plays like Energy Fuels Co. (UUUU), which deals in uranium, vanadium, and rare earths. That’s all for now… Thank you for subscribing and reading. Best wishes… [Byron King] Byron W. King In Case You Missed It… The Fed Skips Another Period? [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning from Asti on another gray day. Autumn will officially be here on Saturday, but I think it’s arrived early. I don’t mind, as writing in the cold is much easier than in the heat. What I do mind is being wrong. I thought the Fed would hike today. In fact, I was sure Powell would go and then do one more before the end of the year. But it looks like I was wrong, and the Fed will hold today. This, even though the CPI has climbed year-on-year for three months. Let’s get straight into why Jay Powell will, in all likelihood, hold rates steady today. [White House insider exposes epic Biden mistake]( Thanks to the incompetence of President Joe Biden… [And the HUGE mistake he made on February 24, 2022]( And an unthinkable event has now happened… Bringing in hyperinflation like we’ve never seen… Crushing the value of the money in your savings and retirement accounts… Tanking our economy… And changing our country’s global standing forever. But there’s still time to protect your money. But you can’t wait. [>>See Biden’s terrible mistake here<<]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Today is the Day The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% at its meeting on September 20-21, 2023. The Fed wants to assess the impact of its previous rate hikes and give the world economy time to adjust. I stress the “world” economy because the strong dollar is chewing up economies overseas, and their central banks would rather not hike right now. [chart] Seven Fed rate hikes in the last twelve months. Credit: [FRED]( The Fed has raised interest rates seven times in the last 12 months to combat inflation, which is coming off a 40-year high. However, the Fed has finally figured out that raising rates too quickly could lead to a recession. Here are three reasons why the Fed is likely to hold rates steady today: - Inflation isn’t “out of control” … yet. Inflation is still high but hasn’t jumped. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% in August 2023 from a year ago, up from 3.2% in July and 3.0% in June. I thought this would make them hike. The CPI has risen for three months consecutively, but this seems not to bother the Fed. It bothers me, and I think they’re being too complacent here. [chart] - The economy is slowing. Economic growth has slowed in recent quarters, and some economists fear a recession may be on the horizon. The real US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2023, down from 4.0% (year-on-year) in the first quarter. The Fed is unlikely to raise rates further if it believes that could push the economy into a recession. However, the Atlanta Fed has Q3 GDP growth coming in at 4.9%, so again, I disagree with Powell’s team. [chart] Credit: [The Atlanta Fed]( - The Fed wants to give the economy time to adjust. The Fed's rate hikes can take years to impact the economy fully. Raising interest rates too quickly can lead to a recession, as businesses are less likely to invest, and consumers are less likely to spend. The Fed wants to give the economy time to adjust to the rate hikes it has implemented before raising rates further. This certainly applies to small businesses that couldn’t swap out their interest rate risk when rates were low. Here are some additional factors that the Fed may consider when making its decision: - The strength of the labor market: The US labor market remains strong, with unemployment near a 50-year low. This suggests that the economy can withstand further tightening in monetary policy. - The global economic outlook: The global economy faces several challenges, including rising inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Fed will weigh these risks when making its decision about interest rates. If the European Central Bank had to raise rates again to chase the Fed, it’d plunge the Euroland economy into a more significant recession than it already has. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady today as it assesses the impact of its previous rate hikes and gives the world economy time to adjust. It’s still important to note that the Fed's decision is uncertain - at least for the next few hours. The Fed may - may - decide to raise rates today if it believes that inflation is not moderating quickly enough… but that’s an extremely low probability play. What Jim Rickards Thinks Here’s what [Jim wrote yesterday]( We should make it clear that the Fed’s decision not to raise rates tomorrow is not the much anticipated “pause” in this rate hike cycle. A pause is understood as the end of the rate hikes. After the pause is reached, the Fed will sit tight for a prolonged period of time before cutting rates and starting a new rate cut cycle. That’s not what’s happening. Instead, this is another “skip” of the kind the Fed did at the June 14, 2023 meeting. A skip does not mean that the Fed is done hiking rates. It means they want to slow the tempo. So, instead of raising rates at every meeting, they can raise rates at every other meeting or any other tempo they choose. The Fed raised rates last May, they skipped a rate hike in June, they raised again in July, and now they’re going to skip again in September. The “every other meeting” tempo seems firmly in place. That means we can expect another 0.25% rate hike on November 1, 2023, the Fed’s next meeting after this one. It’s too soon to make that a firm forecast, but that’s the most likely outcome as of now. Later in his piece, Jim mentions the elephant in the room. Look at this chart of WTI: [chart] Don’t you think this will translate at the gas pump? Jim continues: This reveals a 21% increase in crude oil prices in the past two months. Of course, that run-up in oil prices is part of what’s driving the increase in CPI with one important caveat. Wholesale prices take time to work their way to the gas pump where consumers actually notice the increase. This means the September crude oil price increase has not made it to the gas pump yet, but it will. That’s a reason to expect the CPI will continue to rise as the September numbers are reported in October and beyond that. Gas at the pump has risen 5.5% in the past year from $3.68 per gallon for regular to $3.88 per gallon. That number means more to consumers than CPI, PPI, PCE and all of the other inflation measures the eggheads use. It will get worse. It’s an election year. If Jay Powell can’t connect those dots, it’s another epic fail by the Fed. Powell’s trying to finesse inflation and recession. He’s likely to end up causing both. Wrap Up In all likelihood, the Fed will hold today. But Powell may raise rates at the next Fed meeting. Powell’s playing with fire, and he’ll probably get burned. I don’t see Russia and Saudi Arabia rushing to increase production in their new BRICS partnership to give Joke Biden a hand. Jay Powell may regret not hiking before the real problems begin. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Rude Awakening.](