Iran to Afghanistan: “Water You Doing?”

Afghanistan threatens Iran with drought. [The Rude Awakening] September 18, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Iran to Afghanistan: “Water You Doing?” - While China controls Southeast Asia through Tibet and the Mekong River, Afghanistan controls part of Iran through the Helmand River. - This all but makes war between the two inevitable. - But a compromise based on mutual interests can avoid war. Can they see through their differences to get there? [There is MASSIVE change happening within our company.]( And I want you to [hear about this – from me]( – otherwise this new policy could blindside you. This has gone into effect immeditaly, so I want you to understand exactly what it will mean for you. [So please, watch this video for my full announcement.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning from lovely Il Piemonte! I hope you had a restful, relaxing weekend. Pam and I are taking the train this morning to Turin, where we’ll meet with our bankers regarding this damn house and mortgage again. This stuff takes forever in Italy, especially since no one shows up for work in August! But as we were waiting for our bankers and brokers to return from the beach, I watched a fascinating YouTube video from CaspianReport titled, “[Why Iran and Afghanistan are headed to war]( Credit to CR, as most of this piece’s information is from Shirvan and his team. I thought, “Well, who isn’t going to war these days?” My second thought was, “Why would these two?” I knew they shared a tricky border, but Iran didn’t get too involved in the Afghan War for fear of pissing off the USG even more than it already was. So, I watched. From the video, I could only come to two conclusions. The first is countries can’t do anything without water. The second is because of the first, they’re happy to go to war over it. Unless… unless… they can find a way out if cooler heads prevail. Before I jump into this specific water rights issue, let me show you the myriad issues going on… on every continent! The Current Issues This lists the “Top Ten” current water rights issues besides the Helmand. Some are more pressing than others. - Nile River Basin: Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have been in a long-standing dispute over constructing and filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. This dispute revolves around the allocation of water resources and the potential impacts on downstream countries. - Tigris and Euphrates Rivers: Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have had ongoing disagreements regarding water sharing from the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Turkey's construction of dams and irrigation projects has been a source of tension in the region. - Mekong River: Countries along the Mekong River, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, have been dealing with issues related to water management and dam construction, affecting downstream countries' water availability and ecosystems. - Indus River: India and Pakistan have had disputes over the sharing of waters from the Indus River system. The Indus Water Treaty has somewhat managed this issue, but tensions still arise. - Danube River: Various European countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine, have had disagreements over the use and management of the Danube River, particularly regarding water quality and navigation. - Jordan River: Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have experienced water disputes due to the scarcity of water resources in the region. There have been efforts to find cooperative solutions, but challenges persist. - Rio Grande/Rio Bravo: The United States and Mexico have a long history of disputes over water use from the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly during drought. - La Plata Basin: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have had disputes over the utilization and management of the water resources in the La Plata Basin. - Niger River: Upstream countries like Mali and Niger have been accused of limiting the flow of the Niger River, affecting downstream Nigeria. - Rhine River: Germany, France, and the Netherlands have had to cooperate in managing water quality and navigation in the Rhine River. There are quite a few flashpoints there. The Nile, believe it or not, certainly deserves the top spot. China wanted Tibet so badly precisely because that’s where the Mekong originates. For India and Pakistan, The Indus is just another thing to argue about. The Niger River issue may come to the fore thanks to Niger’s expulsion of the French. But let’s talk about a problem in a more ancient part of the world. [Response Requested]( 1/1000th of an ounce of gold available for As a Rude Awakening reader, you're being offered a 1/1000th of an ounce of gold when you upgrade your account. It will come in the form of a “Gold Back” - a new type of gold currency that’s starting to spread across America ([click here to view](. If you have not responded to this offer yet, and want to know how to claim yours… Please click the link below for details. [Click here to learn how to claim your new Gold Back Currency<]( Thanks! Amber Anderson Customer Service [Click Here To Learn More]( Ancient Geography The Helmand River originates in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan. It flows into Iran's Sistan Basin, a region that has recently faced severe droughts. The river has been a source of contention between Iran and Afghanistan for over a century. Of course, since the British drew their border, this should be no surprise. It’s about as good a job as the [Sykes-Picot Agreement]( that carved up the western part of the Middle East into European spheres of influence. The water dispute between the two nations is rooted in the Helmand River Treaty of 1973, which was never ratified. This treaty allocated 820 million cubic meters of water annually to Iran, with the potential for an additional 4 billion cubic meters in times of surplus. [Map] Credit: [International Water Law Project Blog]( Dam! However, the situation changed dramatically with the construction of the Kajaki Dam in Afghanistan. This dam impounded 50 million cubic meters of water, preventing it from flowing downstream into Iran. After the 2020 Doha agreement signaled an American withdrawal, the Taliban's engagement deepened. The rapid collapse of the Afghan Republic caught many, including the Iranians, off guard. This coincided with the height of the COVID pandemic and widespread water shortages in Iran, leading to nationwide protests and a heavy-handed government response. [Map] Credit: 097ллл - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, [ In July 2022, Iran's president, Ibrahim Raisi, pushed Kabul for a greater water share. The Taliban retaliated by initiating the second phase of the Kajaki Dam, threatening to impound another 1 billion cubic meters of water. This maneuver placed Iran's water security under even more significant strain. A new influx of Afghan refugees heightened tensions, fueling Iran's concerns of separatism in its southeastern regions. There are, however, areas of mutual interest between the two sides. Can They Make Peace Before War? The Taliban has eradicated poppy cultivation, which had soared under the US-installed Afghan Republic. (Surprise, surprise.) Strict enforcement of counternarcotics has seen opium production fall nearly 99% in Taliban strongholds. Many farmers have switched to wheat, leading to slimmer profit margins and occasional violent clashes between Taliban militants and farmers. By assisting the Taliban, Iran could potentially curb trafficking at its source, easing the strain on its counternarcotics efforts. Climate change allegedly further complicates the situation. Opium is more lucrative and less water-intensive than conventional agriculture. Any lapse in enforcement could see poppy yields return to their pre-eradication levels within a single season. For cooperation between the Taliban and Iran, advances in minority rights in eastern Iran are essential. This region has significant anti-Afghan sentiment, primarily due to refugees, border security issues, and an opioid crisis the Iranians see as an Afghan problem. The Taliban's attempts to establish Pashtun cultural hegemony negatively impacted its Persian-speaking minorities. This includes the suppression of Persian literature and language in favor of Pashto. Concessions on this front are necessary. Additionally, a properly ratified treaty needs to address the water rights issue. Both Iran and the Taliban share a commitment to the Helmand Water Treaty. But since it was never ratified, Afghanistan, where the water originates, holds the upper hand in negotiations. The Taliban remains the de facto sovereign authority in Afghanistan, regardless of legal technicalities. Eventually, Iran may recognize the Taliban because it provides greater protection to its ethnoreligious kin within Afghanistan. This would open dispute resolution procedures available under the Helmand River Treaty. Settling the dispute is in the mutual interest of both parties, as shared security issues necessitate it. Beyond that, neither side can afford new enemies. Their differences are significant in religious, cultural, and ethnolinguistic terms. In this case, tolerance is a good starting point. Agreement can come later. Wrap-Up My friend and colleague Byron King loves to talk about minerals and mining, and for good reason. But perhaps the earth’s most precious resource deserves more attention. After all, without water, we wouldn’t have our morning coffee! Have a wonderful week ahead. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… How to Protect Yourself from the Coming Banking Tornado [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning from overcast Asti! And Happy Friday! May you break out a cold one tonight and enjoy it. You deserve it. In this edition of the Rude, I re-answer a question I was asked about two years ago. If Jim Rickards is right, and we’re in the “eye of the storm” banking-wise, you must protect yourself. I’ll give you some ideas on how to do it. The Question Rude reader Geoffrey H. wrote me this great question: Now that most banks have adopted "bail-in" rules for their used-to-be depositors, now-lenders, is it wise to spread deposits around multiple banks, have lower deposits in the banks, keep cash or gold or silver out of the banks or some combination? Or am I just an alarmist? P.S. I enjoy your work! Thank you, Geoffrey, and you are by no means an alarmist! Let me tell you about my time in Hong Kong. From Sales and Trading to Private Banking I spent most of my banking career in an investment bank’s sales and trading division. That means I had hedge fund managers and other institutional money managers shouting down the phone at me all day. It's not as glamorous as you think, trust me. But the intellectual caliber of the workforce there, amoral though they may be, is staggering. Almost everyone has a top degree - which used to mean much more to me than it does now - and is incredibly intense. So, you can imagine my shock when I got to the private banking side, where relationship managers know almost nothing about the products they sell. Now, I’m not claiming all investment bank traders and salespeople knew that CDOs-cubed were a terrible idea. Watch The Big Short for confirmation on that. However, private bankers, known inside the industry as relationship managers (RMs), are not known for their product knowledge. As their title says, it’s all about the relationships with them. In Asia, guanxi is the most essential thing an RM can have with a client. That’s the network and connections that create mutually beneficial business opportunities. From Investopedia: Guanxi is closely intertwined with the Confucian philosophy - a philosophy that has shaped many Asian cultures - that self is extended to family, friends, and society to create a harmonious community. Guanxi implies an obligation that one has to another. In China, it is stated that the wheels of business are lubricated with guanxi. To be fair, the Chinese coined the term, but the West expanded upon the idea. Through English Common Law, the West built a legal system that extended this trust to entire nations. That’s one of the reasons what we may call “bribery” is just “a gift to a friend” in the East. Interestingly, the distributed ledger technology upon which the blockchain is built extends trust without custodians. There need not be a middleman like a banker if the peer-to-peer networks work independently. It eliminates the age-old question, Quis custodiet ipsos custodes, or “Who watches the watchmen?” Eliminating some go-betweens would free up valuable resources regarding fees and time. After all, you probably don’t need an RM if you can articulate your wants to a client advisor. Or, if you’re expert enough, you can do much of this yourself. Not knowing more about your position, I can’t offer advice. (Well, I’m not allowed to provide advice anyway.) With all this in mind, let’s discuss five ways to protect yourself. [Warning: Will “Bidenflation” Destroy Your Retirement?]( [James Altucher]( If you’re like most Americans, you’ve worked hard for decades to build your financial legacy. And now, as a result of Biden’s disastrous money printing policies, that’s all at risk. According to one top retirement expert, “Bidenflation” threatens to destroy your retirement and make your hard-earned savings worthless. That’s why you must take action right away to protect yourself… [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive “Bidenflation.”]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Keeping Your Cash on Hand You’ll set off alarm bells at your bank if you withdraw $20,000. That’s for sure. But you certainly want to keep a certain amount you feel comfortable with in your safe. And put that safe underground. (The first place thieves will look is behind a painting.) You don’t need to go all John Wick, but my parents had a cool safe in our old house. It was small, but they put it under the rug in their closet. [John wick] If there’s a master thief in the world that would look there, kudos to him. I wouldn’t. Besides the cool factor, you’ll know your notes are as safe as possible. Keeping Your Cash in Multiple Banks The average high-net-worth individual in Asia has at least five bankers. On average, one banker gets half his “wallet.” “Wallet share” is bankerspeak for how much of a client’s assets they manage. The bankers never know for sure, but they can guess. The next four bankers will get a piece of the rest. So, it’s essential to be a good banker. What does this mean for you? First, retail and mass affluent clients often think one bank is enough… and the banks count on it. When I teach retail banking during the graduate season, I teach that retail deposits are “sticky.” That means ordinary folk pick one bank and put all their money in it. This isn’t an issue since the average American has about $500 to their name. But if you’ve got a chunk of cash, you should spread it between 3 to 5 institutions. I know opening bank accounts isn’t as easy as it used to be, but it’s certainly something you should invest time in. That way, you can keep up to $250,000 in each bank, and all those deposits will be insured. But even if you only stick $10,000 in each bank, you’re much better diversified. Keeping Your Gold and Silver in a Safe Place I could be wrong, but I don’t see why anyone would keep their gold and silver in a bank. Maybe a safe deposit shop that’s separate from a bank. But I wouldn’t even do that. My good friend Michael once mentioned he has enough gold, silver, and ammo to defend his keep until the end of his days. I’d keep my gold and silver in a super safe under the floorboards in my house and never mention it to anyone. Or dig a hole in your backyard. Just don’t forget where you dug it! If Biden or his successors outlaw privately owned gold and silver in the coming years, and your stash is in a bank, it’s game over - at whatever price they decide. Investing in Crypto We’ve talked about this a lot. Owning crypto is an intelligent bet, even if it’s just 2% of your portfolio. You can’t lose your house but can participate in the upside. And that currency is practically untouchable. Especially if you plan to live abroad, just keep the crypto in cold storage. “Cold storage” is cryptospeak for a device that resembles an old USB stick where your crypto can be kept off-exchange. Just always remember your password and key - and never lose it! You don’t want to wind up like this guy: [Click here to learn more] Credit: [CNBC]( Wrapping Your Assets in a Company This is too little spoken about. If you own a company and structure it correctly with the help of your lawyer and accountant, you can use it to shield your assets. Remember, you control your company, but the company owns your assets. It’s one of the best ways to protect yourself from lawsuits. It also keeps away unwanted bankers who’ll try to manage your wealth. I’ve long written in this newsletter that you ought to start an internet business that grooves with your passions. Once it starts to make money, leave the money in there until you need it. You can use the company as a savings vehicle. If you build it big enough, you can sell it for a chunk and move to Switzerland, whose private bankers understand the meaning of “discretion.” I hope that helps. Have a wonderful weekend! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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