Spoiler: “Bidenomics” Is Failing

Congress Is Shorting the U.S. [Morning Reckoning] August 17, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Spoiler: “Bidenomics” Is Failing - What happens when a U.S. Senator actively shorts the U.S. economy? - When his own personal money is on the line, wouldn’t he be more incentivized for the American economy to fall? - “Bidenomics in action,” says the man whose portfolio paints a completely different story. [Pentagon City “BOMBSHELL” Just Dropped]( There are two things I believe could change your life in the coming months. - A major financial war could be set to go nuclear just a few weeks from now - A [special strategy]( my team has developed that historically could have allowed investors to take home profits 50-100 higher from these Currency Wars than what most people get trading stocks But with these Currency Wars playing out as we speak, and my live recording set to come down at any moment. You may not have long to prepare. [So click here to see an urgent rebroadcast of my announcement.]( [LEARN MORE]( Paris, France August 17, 2023 [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, Happy Thursday! The family and I are a few days into our Grand Tour, today we’re in Paris. I try not to wade into the mess of American politics… especially on vacation. But flicking through my Twitter feed — or X feed, rather — a bit of trading news caught my attention. If you don’t know who Tom Carper is off the top of your head, join the club. But digging a little deeper, Tom is buddy-buddy with good ole’ Joe Biden… and is a HUGE supporter of the president’s so-called “Bidenomics”. I can’t help but laugh. The man touts the resilience and strength of the U.S. economy — while actively betting against it. How is this even allowed? It’s so ridiculous, I have to take a break from relaxation to call this guy out. Because it’s not the first time he’s made money on something like this. Let’s dive in… [Reserve Your Seat Now: Jim Is Going LIVE This Friday!]( Jim Rickards is hosting a LIVE Zoom call on Friday morning… where he’ll break down his critical predictions for 2023. [To see how to reserve your seat, click here now](. [LEARN MORE]( Conflict of Interest Thomas Carper hails from the state of Delaware (no wonder he’s best friends with Biden). The democratic senator is also a senior member of the Senate Finance Committee. So of course, in public, this man praises the U.S. economy. Just in May, he attributed the apparent glowing economy to the president… “Thanks to POTUS, our economy is resilient and growing stronger every day. With over 250,000 jobs added to the market in April and our lowest unemployment rate in over 50 years, we are continuing to support working families across Delaware and the country,” said Carper. Lucky for us, senator’s stock filings are full public knowledge… caught you Tommy. His short bet was placed on July 13th. So it should come as no surprise that a senator like this praised the economy both the day BEFORE and the day AFTER his bearish bet. “Bidenomics in action,” says the man whose portfolio paints a completely different story. The trade in question was in the ProShares Short QQQ ETF (NYSE:PSQ), which is an ETF that moves opposite to the Nasdaq 100 Index. It’s a good investment for those that want to profit from a decline in the index. I mean, I can’t help but ask: when his own personal money is on the line, wouldn’t he be more incentivized for the American economy to fall? Especially considering Carper announced in May that he plans on retiring… so reelection isn’t a big issue for him. Even if he doesn’t directly pass any laws that would hurt the economy, being on the Finance Committee while betting on major indices falling? That feels a little too close to insider trading for comfort. And it’s not even the first time he’s done this. In March 2022, the US Senator invested around $100,000 in the same ETF and locked in a 30% gain after he sold it in October 2022. Then, in November, he purchased $110,000 of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF (NYSE: HDGE), which is a fund that shorts stocks — often used by investors to protect themselves against economic downturns. Of course, at the same time of these purchases, Biden’s buddy talked about how the commander in chief’s leadership was the reason for the “huge” increase in the economy… give me a break. Tommy is clearly full of it and willing to profit while the rest of America suffers. But this isn’t just a Democrat problem… Red and Blue Can Agree… on Their Wallets Senator Carper is easy pickings. It’s not just him that has a huge problem with a conflict of interest, though. The New York Times put together a good analysis on Congress’ trading habits. They found that at least 97 — 47 Dems and 49 Reps — current members of Congress bought or sold (or had immediate family buying and selling) stock, bonds or other financial assets that had to do with the work they do in Washington. Just look at this picture… [chart] The corruption is so balanced between Republicans and Democrats the picture is practically purple! (Take a peep at Mr. Carper up on the top right.) American lawmakers do not have to refrain from investing in companies whose stocks could be directly affected by the decisions they make in office. But it does leave a bad taste in your mouth. I mean, who can forget that after closed-door meetings about the pandemic back in 2020 (before the public had knowledge), many of their first instincts were not to try and protect the economy but to buy and sell stocks weeks before the market crashed. And despite 2022 being the worst market since 2008, politicians — on both sides of the aisle — beat the market. [chart] These politicians sure know how to trade! Pay Close Attention We don’t get real-time updates on congressional stock trading. So trading alongside them is a bit of an uphill battle. But politicians — not just in America, but all over — can’t help but show their cards eventually. Because if these people care about one thing over all… it’s making themselves more money. And those like our aforementioned Delaware senator give us some great insight: despite what he may be posting on social media about the strength of the U.S. economy, his heart (and his wallet) seem to be elsewhere. If someone on the Finance Committee is actively betting against America’s finances, I’m definitely paying attention and it doesn’t hurt to brace for impact. Take what they say in public with a grain of salt, their portfolios are where the real action takes place. Thanks for the peek behind the curtain Tommy! Let me know if you want any more information on this topic, or any topic that’s top of mind by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). See you next week. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [New LIVE Demo Video STUNS Crypto Investors]( In [this short 3:28 video…]( Crypto genius James Altucher reveals his most shocking crypto secret yet… A little-known secret that’s delivered over $1,170 in FREE crypto income per month. If you AREN’T using this affordable little device… You’re missing one of the best, easiest ways to earn real cash with cryptos. [Click here to watch this short 3:28 video NOW.]( [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… [CHART ALERT]: 3 Predictions Greg Guenthner, Editor [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, School starts soon, so I’m hitting the road with the fam in a few days to spend our last precious hours of summer vacation at the beach. In just a couple weeks, the dog days of summer will give way to homework, carpools, and soccer practice. We’ll also (hopefully) enjoy a reprieve from the oppressive heat and humidity that’s currently blanketing the East Coast. But for now, we’re stuck in the summer doldrums. Back in the day, all the major market players were nowhere to be found in August. Junior traders and interns manned the turrets on Wall Street while wealthy fund managers escaped to the Hamptons for the month. The adults would return after Labor Day weekend to clean up the mess… and the real trading would begin once again. I’m not so sure this is the case anymore in the modern era of 24/7 trading. Sure, the market probably attracts fewer eyeballs in August. But it’s downright impossible to imagine any of the pros completely disconnecting from daily market updates. After all, the WiFi at the beach house is probably faster than at the office… Plus, shifting trends still matter — even during what’s usually a low-volume, low-volatility month. August has been busy this year – mainly because of the abrupt market rotation we’re witnessing right now. We’ve talked at length about some of these rotation themes into energy names for the past couple months. We also explored some energy over tech ideas in last week’s issue as the Energy Sector ETF (XLE) posted a major breakout. It’s funny how investors will get stuck on a particular market theme — even when it begins to roll over. The herd mostly ignored the quiet rallies in the energy sector in favor of explosive tech gains this summer. I get it — these were the monster trades of the first six months of the year. Many of the big, recognizable names were stair-stepping higher every single week. If you wanted to make money, you’d bet on the tech leaders and snapback growth names. The market is clearly changing. The tech sector is taking its lumps, while energy stocks are breaking out the upside. But some folks will continue to pound their heads against the wall, betting on tech as it steadily sinks lower. Tech and energy aren’t the only major trends evolving in August. In fact, we’re already beginning to see several substantial shifts from the historic first-half rally. So, what does the second half of 2023 have in store for us as Labor Day and fall trading approach? Today, I’m going to show you three confusing, perplexing, and downright maddening charts that could be shaping up for big moves in the fall. Then, I’ll offer up a quick prediction on which way they might break. Let’s get started… Can Bitcoin Bounce Back? Bitcoin is dead. No, it hasn’t crashed. But price fluctuations have completely dried up in what used to be an extremely volatile asset. Crypto has a history of late-night, holiday and weekend moves. But this is the calmest I’ve seen the price of Bitcoin in a very long time. It’s not budging at all, did absolutely nothing over the weekend, and continues to flat line in the mid $29K range. Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation range since its June rally. During that one magical week in June, Bitcoin rallied more than 20% to break above $30K. Since then, it has essentially gone nowhere aside from a couple of fake-out moves. [chart] Perhaps more importantly, Bitcoin and the tech-growth trade do not seem to be on speaking terms anymore. These assets have traded hand-in-hand for the past couple years. But Bitcoin failed to extend its rally along with tech heading into August. And it didn’t post a sharp pullback along with tech to kick off August, either. Prediction: Bitcoin gets its act together and posts another surge higher at some point during the third or fourth quarter, possibly after an ugly move lower. I don’t love this guess, but I have to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt because it remains locked in a longer-term uptrend. Will These Tech Stocks Lead the Market Lower? Semiconductors have proven themselves as important market leadership once again this year. Powered by NVDA and other hot names in the group, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has rallied as much as 60% since January. But August has not been as kind to the chips. Semis took a major hit to start the month — and the timing couldn’t be worse. After breaking above their 2021 highs, SMH has abruptly fallen back into its range, potentially flashing an ugly false breakout. [chart] Prediction: Failed moves like this can cause some serious pain as late buyers are scared out of their positions. Taking market rotation themes into consideration, I’m guessing it will take several weeks and more downside action before we see semis firm up and make another attempt at holding above 155. Is Inflation Really Over? It’s been a hot minute since investors have freaked out over inflation. Market reactions to CPI and PPI have been relatively tame this summer, signaling that most folks believe the scariest days are behind us. The Fed’s been aggressive, headline numbers are down… why worry? Well, here’s a fun chart that’s been making the rounds on social media… [chart] Was that just the first wave? Are we headed toward a 70’s style inflation rebound? As Klymochoko mentioned, this would be a nightmare scenario for the Fed — and the stock market. Prediction: We shouldn’t put too much emphasis on these historical analog charts. But I do think it’s interesting that everyone assumes the inflation monster is dead and buried while we’re seeing commodity prices beginning to wake up (ahem, oil anyone?) What do you think of these predictions? Am I on target — or just talking trash? Let me know… Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Sean Ring] [Sean Ring, CAIA, FRM and CMT]( is a former banker and financial educator and is the editor of the Rude Awakening. Sean has trained interns and graduates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Standard Chartered Bank, DBS (Singapore), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Bank Indonesia (the central bank), HSBC, Barclays, RBS, and BlackRock. He knows the global economy is being corrupted by forces that most people can't understand and has used his unique and worldly experiences to help people navigate the markets. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. 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