July 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report

Commodities and stocks partied like it was 1999… [The Rude Awakening] August 01, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( July 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report - Commodities were 7.70% in July, but inflation isn’t a problem, right? - Stocks were up nearly 3%, so it’s not all bad. - Crypto and bonds took a breather last month. [[LEAKED MEMO] AI Opportunity]( A leaked memo from Google on AI could prove that it's [the biggest opportunity of the decade](. [Click here to learn more]( Silicon Valley insider, James Altucher, shows that a tiny AI company could be in the crosshairs of major NASDAQ players — and [a buyout deal]( could be announced at any moment. And if you don’t get in this stock before a potential deal is announced... You’ll miss out for good. Take a look at this research, and [this urgent buy alert]( before it’s too late. [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Tuesday from sunny Asti! What a month July was! The SPX was up nearly 3%, as the dollar was down 1%. But that wasn’t The Big Story. As General Sir Harry Flashman, VC, might have said, “Commodities were rocking like a New Orleans brothel during Holy Week.” The commodities complex was up 7.7%, a staggering number for the month. And what’s more, gold and silver participated in the rally. Yesterday, gold again breached the $2,000 level, and silver is just under $25. Both shiny metals look strong. Copper, not so shiny, also shot through the $4.00, against my expectations. I’ve added WTI oil to the report. I have no idea why I left it out so long. Oil is trading above $80, and we’re looking for a $95 price target. Who said inflation is dead? It looks like Jay Powell is trading consumer price inflation for asset price inflation. That kind of inflation makes the hoi polloi, voters, and 401(k) holders much happier. But no one will be happier than Slippery Joe Biden. A happy stock market increases his chances of returning to the Oval Office for a second term. God help us. Remember, it’s not who votes that counts. It’s who counts the votes. Now, let’s dive in… S&P 500 [SJN] From 4,450, we gained 138 points over the month. There’s nothing to indicate we should get short here. Although we took a breather yesterday, we’re way up in July. Both moving averages are pointing upward. Enjoy the ride for now. Until something changes, hold fast. Nasdaq Composite [SJN] Nearly at 14,500 now. I reckon we’ll blast through there, challenging the all-time high. Like the SPX, nothing indicates any trouble on the horizon. The chart is clear as day. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [SJN] Last month, I wrote, “Above 197.50, and you can be unabashedly bullish.” Be unabashedly bullish. Next stop: 207.50. The US 10-Year Yield [SJN] We rose sixteen bps (0.16%) since our last asset class report. As they say in Italy, “Piano, piano.” (Slowly, slowly.) My comment from four months ago remains: This is because the market thinks the Fed is done hiking and will cut soon. I don’t think the Fed is done hiking, nor do I think it’ll cut soon after. There will be a decent interval between the end of the hikes and the beginning of the cuts. So I think we’re going up from here, though the entire market disagrees with me. Dollar Index [SJN] I have my doubts now. I still don’t think the Fed is done hiking. In fact, I think Jay Powell will hike in September at the next Fed meeting. The market currently only assigns an 18.5% probability of that happening. But that can - and will - change many times between now and September 20th. It’s just that the markets don’t seem to care that the Fed is hiking anymore. And that’s because a 25 bp hike now has a much lower effect than a 25 bp hike 18 months ago. Whereas a hike of 25 bps to 50bps is a doubling (100% increase) of rates, going from 550 bps to 575 bps is only a 4.5% increase (575 / 550 - 1 = 0.045 = 4.5%). Therefore, the Fed can keep hiking, and the dollar may still fall. Clown world, I know… USG Bonds [SJN] One place where the hike was felt is here in the long end. TLT fell by 2 points in July. I imagine it’ll continue as long as Powell keeps hiking. If TLT gets below 98, we can see a challenge of the 90-91 level. Investment Grade Bonds [SJN] Investment grade bonds are holding up better. We’ve been rangebound here for the entire year and have traded in a tight range for the past few months. I’d still err on the downside if more rate hikes are coming, but let’s wait for confirmation. [Are you worried about “Biden Bucks”?]( Don’t be. All you need to protect yourself and your money is this secret gold investment you see in my hands here. [Click here to learn more]( This new alternative gold currency is the perfect way for you to sidestep “Biden Bucks” while preserving your wealth at the same time. To show you how it works, I just recorded a [quick 2-minute video]( walking you through all of the details… [Just click here now for all of the details.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( High Yield Bonds [SJN] As junk bonds have equity characteristics, they’re following the market up for now. Look for 77 first, then 80. Real Estate [SJN] Anecdotally, my parents, who are selling their house in Texas to move here to Italy, are having a grand old time. Sure, they’re between San Antonio and Austin, making things easier. But the bids are coming in thick and fast. Likewise, VNQ has also been up the last month, though it’s been choppy on the year. Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil) [SJN] I can’t believe I’ve left oil out of this for so long. But here we are. Since June, oil has spiked $10, from $70 to $80. As the dollar continues to weaken, oil will continue to increase in price. We breached $80 last week and closed at $81.80 yesterday. Next price target: $95. Get in here so you hedge your fuel tank costs. Base Metals: Copper [SJN] Totally wrong on this one last month. I thought we were heading down to 3.60. Dr. Copper seems more bullish than I thought, breaking the 4.00 level yesterday. Since its trough in May, things have been looking up. Precious Metals: Gold [SJN] What a comeback! After falling to $1,929 last month, we’re over $2,000 again. Things are looking up again, and I’m very bullish. Now’s the time to back up the truck if you haven’t already. $2,130 is the first upside target. Precious Metals: Silver [SJN] Another big turnaround. We’re just a touch under $25 now. Silver is wildly undervalued, and I hope we start knocking on $30 soon. $26.50 is the first upside target. Cryptos: Bitcoin [SJN] Though it’s been a disappointing month for Bitcoin, you can see the price on the 50-day MA. I can see us bouncing off that and resuming our uptrend to $42,000. The next few weeks’ worth of price movement is crucial. If not, the first downside target is $26,000. Cryptos: Ether [SJN] A weaker chart than Bitcoin’s, I can see ETH challenging the $1,800 level before heading up. Trade Asset Class Summary [SJN] We’re well and truly back into the swing of things. Commodities were up bigly, notching a 7.70% gain. The SPX followed strongly, with a 2.99% gain. But everything depends on the dollar, which was 1% weaker this month, following a 0.88% loss last month. Bonds were down again, losing 1.71% in the long end. Crypto Class Summary [SJN] Ripple had a great month, up 47.32%. Dogecoin, Elon’s favorite, was up 13.58%. The rest, including Bitcoin and Ether, pulled back slightly. Bitcoin Cash, up 168% last month, fell nearly 15% this month. Wrap Up It was an excellent month for commodities and a very good month for stocks. Bonds and crypto took a break, each down a bit. Gold, silver, copper, and oil are all looking up, even after their stellar months. Finally, let’s take a moment to admire this meme - which I’m ashamed to say made me laugh much harder than I should have - courtesy of the Twitterverse: [SJN] Have a great day! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… The Walking Dead: US Government Edition [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Monday from a glorious Piedmont. I’ve never been one to bitch about the old folk. In fact, I think young idiots are far more dangerous than old ones. Though, Joke Biden is doing his best to change my mind. But when I watched the video of Mitch McConnell’s brain freeze, I was reminded of my old Windows PC going blue screen and my IT guy asking me, “Did you log out and log back in yet?” These gerontocrats are the ones spending your money in Ukraine. As the case for more money and military assets gets weaker, their resolve gets stronger… like your 98-year-old Grandpa who insists he can steer a car straight. Let’s have some fun on this fine Monday morning. Positively Soviet A friend - I think the 5 Bullets’ Dave Gonigam - recently asked me, “Do you remember when we used to make fun of the old Soviet Politburo for being so old?” Dave and I are old enough to remember that. But the young voters of today aren’t. And they’ve created an enormous problem with their lack of historical wherewithal about the old fogies they’ve elected. Look at these guys. It’s the 1986 Soviet Politburo. They look positively adolescent compared to the walking cadavers we’ve got in power [SJN] The 1986 Soviet Politburo; Credit: [Der Spiegel]( Hello Granny! When I was living in London, a comedy series called Little Britain was all the rage. I didn’t watch much television back then, but this show was funny as hell. One of their hilarious skits was Jason and Gary. Jason goes to Gary’s house, meets Gary’s grandmother, and immediately falls in love. [SJN] Credit: [Little Britain BBC]( One time, Jason tries to help Grandma around the house. He accidentally grabs her backside and says, “Sorry! I thought that was your elbow…” I nearly fell out of my chair. But that sums up the relationship between Gen Z and Biden. After all, it was they, and not the Boomers, who voted him in: [pub] Credit: BBC Notice the “Age” category. Gen Z went for Biden by 27 points(!); Millennials by 7 points. Even half of Gen X voted poorly. But it’s not just Biden. The senior members of Congress have one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel, yet stubbornly retain their balance. The one good thing that could be said for John McCain is that he had the good sense to exit stage left. [Warning: Will “Bidenflation” Destroy Your Retirement?]( [Click here to learn more]( If you’re like most Americans, you’ve worked hard for decades to build your financial legacy. And now, as a result of Biden’s disastrous money printing policies, that’s all at risk. According to one top retirement expert, “Bidenflation” threatens to destroy your retirement and make your hard-earned savings worthless. That’s why you must take action right away to protect yourself… [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive “Bidenflation.”]( [Click Here To Learn More]( The Walking Dead: USG Edition [pub] Credit: @unusual_whales Dianne Feinstein, 90, US Senator Dianne Feinstein has been dead for many years now. But no one’s told her yet. It’s like Dickens declaring Marley “dead as a doornail,” but Marley showing up at Scrooge’s after Christmas and saying, “Joke’s on you!” [SJN] Credit: DC Comics DC Comics did a better job of sewing the Joker’s face back on than Feinstein’s doctors did to hers. She recently returned to Congress in a wheelchair, proving Democrats will do absolutely anything to retain power. Joke Biden, 80, POTUS Biden is so prone to gaffes now it’s not even a story anymore. Though Fox News has been de-Tuckered, at least they still put together good gaffe videos: [Click here to learn more]( [Click here to see this mess.]( Biden has been such a disaster this term, Gen Z may come to its senses. After all, most of their debt won’t be paid off, inflation still prohibits them from owning homes, and their wages haven’t caught up in any meaningful way. Let’s see how far the Hunter laptop story goes. Maxine Waters, 84, Congressperson For Maxine Waters, the bad news is that she’s 87. The good news is that her age has finally caught up to her IQ. Here’s a list of Maxine Waters’ accomplishments: - Getting re-elected 16 times from the same Congressional district. Nancy Pelosi, 83, Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s dentures aren’t as sticky as her political career. She’s the greatest insider trader of all time. [pub] Credit: [Rose Rambles]( From [Business Insider]( A previous analysis from Insider estimated that the Pelosis are worth at least $46,123,051, making Nancy Pelosi one of the 25 richest members of Congress. The vast majority of the couple's wealth is derived from stocks, options, and investments made by Paul Pelosi. That Paul is one lucky guy. How could he make such good bets without a wife with access to all that information? Well, it beats [getting hammered](. Mitch McConnell, 81, Current Senate Majority Leader I’d have made a gif about McConnell, but thanks to his complete freeze, a regular pic will do. [SJN] Credit: [@WallStreetSilv]( McConnell has fallen three times this year, including one where he broke ribs and suffered a concussion. However, he’s already confirmed that he’ll serve the rest of this Congress through 2024. This proves Republicans will do absolutely anything to retain power. (Hmmm… sounds familiar.) Janet Yellen, 76, The “Magical” US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, mushroom lover, and US Treasury Secretary, forgot that the Chinese do not bow like the Japanese. But apparently, she was so whacked out, she couldn’t tell the difference. [SJN] Credit: [The Times of London]( Also, from [The Times]( (bolds mine): A local food blogger posted on Weibo, the Chinese social media site, that Yellen and her delegation had tucked in to a range of Yunnan dishes including grilled fish and stir-fried greens. Responding to the post, the restaurant confirmed that Yellen had eaten there, and shown particular enthusiasm for the jian shou qing — a wild mushroom from Yunnan. “Yellen was here . . . right after landing in China,” the restaurant said. “Our staff said she loved mushrooms very much. She ordered four portions of jian shou qing. It was an extremely magical day.” Yellen’s meal swiftly trended on Chinese social media, and prompted discussion of the mushroom’s psychedelic properties. Peter Mortimer, a professor at the Kunming Institute of Botany in Yunnan, told CNN that the mushroom was considered poisonous because it could be hallucinogenic. “I have a friend who mistakenly ate them and hallucinated for three days,” he said. “Scientists have not, as of yet, identified the compounds responsible for causing the hallucinations. It remains a bit of a mystery, and most evidence is anecdotal.” I’m starting to wonder whether or not Ms. Yellen didn’t meet our good friend and Harvard-educated geologist Byron King [while they were at Harvard]( in the 70s (wink, wink). Bernie Sanders, 81, Would-Be Democratic Nominee The ultimate sell-out, Bernie should’ve been the Democratic nominee in both 2016 and 2020. But his “loyalty” outweighed his “independence,” and he stepped aside for the Hildebeast and Biden, respectively. [SJN] We’re lucky. He might have pipped Trump at the post, thanks to Gen Z’s penchant for voting for ancient white guys who promise them free stuff. It’s like the entire generation has Daddy Issues. Wrap Up There are Elders, and there are elders. These people are the latter. Unless and until America removes these folks from power, it’ll be more of the same. Tomorrow, I’ll have our monthly asset class report ready for you. Have a great week ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. 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