I’m (Almost) Tired of Tech Stocks

But Here’s What’s Keeping Me Interested… [Morning Reckoning] June 20, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( I’m (Almost) Tired of Tech Stocks - The hottest money is in the tech trade, specifically the AI boom (even if I’m tired of talking about it) - There’s a reason I’m still interested in AI, despite the danger of a bubble - How much juice is left in this market? [Beginning of the largest stock run in history?]( A tiny stock is trading for around $1 and could potentially double overnight... ...and hand early investors a shot at one of the fastest gains of their lives. A run so massive it could turn every $10,000 invested into a shot at over $1,000,000 in the coming decades. If you do one thing today, take five minutes to see [this.]( Because with news of this story already starting to break… And shares of [this company]( have already up 20% in just the last 5 days… Come tomorrow, you’ll be very happy you did. [LEARN MORE]( Brunswick, North Carolina June 20, 2023 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good morning Reader, The stock market is dragging me kicking and screaming into the artificial intelligence age. I’m at the beach this week with my extended family, doing my best to disconnect from stocks and screens. Instead of scanning for trades, I’m leaving my phone on the bedside table to catch some rays and dig in the sand with the kids. Taking a break from my screens also gives me time to think — a blessing and a curse these days. There’s no shortage of market action to ponder. Stocks have zoomed higher this year. New bubbles are emerging before the last bit of air escapes from the old. And I’m stuck writing about the next big thing in tech that’s dominating the market… Such is the plight of the trader. If I want to win, I have to travel with the hot money. These days, the hottest money is in the tech trade, specifically the AI boom. And no, I’m not exactly psyched about our new artificial intelligence overlords. But as we’ve previously discussed, the market’s lightning-fast pivot to AI is the main driver of the tech sector’s strong performance this year. C3.ai Inc. (AI) has made a mockery of prudent, value-minded investors, exploding higher by more than 370% year-to-date. Its emergence as the dominant speculative trading vehicle of 2023 has already attracted the YOLO crowd — the same kids who were slinging Gamestop and AMC options back in late 2020. As if we needed any more evidence that frothy market conditions have returned, The Wall Street Journal just profiled an 18-year-old investor [playing the AI boom over summer break](. “He’s one of many who bought the dip in tech stocks last year and has poured even more money into them during their meteoric rally this year,” the note reads, highlighting the college student’s recent purchases of APPL, META, and NVDA. Unfortunately, the article fails to mention whether this young Livermore is beating the mighty Nasdaq this year. But it does reveal that he isn’t above falling into the market’s most speculative traps, including the admission that he’s made “some ill-timed bets, including on bankrupt retailer Bed Bath & Beyond.” Yet, unlike the struggling old-school meme stocks, the AI boom is thriving — and potentially growing into a bigger tech moment. META just logged 52-week highs last week, while AAPL posted new all-time highs. In addition to embracing the AI movement, the two tech giants also just happen to be releasing new virtual/augmented reality headsets soon. Meta has the Quest 3, while Apple is debuting the $3,500 Vision Pro headset early next year. Is this where the bubble is headed? Is Silicon Valley trying to get us to strap out computers to our faces while our AI-enabled assistant reads our junk mail and fills our calendars with surprise performance reviews with human resources? [Zuckerberg] VR King Zuckerberg approaches! (Disclaimer: This photo is from 2016, so I think it’s fair to say we should have seen this coming… ) It all feels so dystopian. But I’m not one to run from reality — virtual or otherwise. So instead of throwing my phone and laptop into the ocean, I’ll attempt to jot down some of my squishier thoughts about what’s happening in the tech markets right now, and how these scenarios might play out in the weeks and months ahead. [Secret Gold Back currency RUINING Biden’s plans for a digital dollar?]( There is a secret currency that’s beginning to spread across America. And you only have a limited time to claim one of these “Gold Dollars” for yourself. [Click here to learn more]( And since you’ll be getting it as part of an upgrade I want to make to your account… You’ll be receiving one of these [“Gold Dollars” as a FREE gift.]( You just have to watch this [short 2 minute video]( I recorded for you and respond by Wednesday at midnight. [LEARN MORE]( The Future No One Wants One argument against some of this new tech (specifically virtual/augmented reality) is that consumers simply aren’t interested. It’s true — VR headsets haven’t really moved beyond a niche market. I’ve never seen someone sitting at a Starbucks wearing a VR headset, whereas folks are on their phones and laptops all the time. But it only takes one breakthrough product to radically change our collective attitude about a particular technology. Apple didn’t make the first smartphone. But Steve Jobs made the first smartphone that everyone needed. VR has seen its share of early prototypes and moderate successes, from Google Glass to the game and experienced-focused Oculus. Perhaps we’re just very early in the cycle. I’m not an early adopter. But I’ve learned not to knock these innovations that don’t pan out right away. Room for One More? Artificial intelligence has been the one major tech theme to capture investors' imagination in 2023. But is there any room for VR on the hype train? I think it’s possible we get a bigger tech rotation into more speculative names. AI (the stock) has obviously attracted a ton of attention. Some of the smaller, even more speculative artificial intelligence names could also catch fire as Big Tech and the stronger performing names consolidate. VR joining the party isn’t that far fetched. Plus, the VR theme goes well with AI. There’s a ton of overlap with publicly traded companies associated with both. Apple is also an important piece to the VR puzzle. The biggest of the tech giants just made a huge foray into the VR/AR space. That alone tells me this segment isn’t going away anytime soon. Stealing Bitcoin’s Thunder Finally, I wonder how much speculative juice is left in this market. We endured an ugly bear market in 2022. But these same stocks that were at the forefront of last year’s meltdown are now among the top performers this year. But I have to imagine there’s a good chunk of Covid Bubble money that isn’t going to rush into the next frothy market theme. Just look at Bitcoin. While crypto posted a strong run to start the year, Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone nowhere since March. Meanwhile, tech is all the rage again. Have the crypto kids really tossed their tokens into the speculative scrap heap to buy AI stocks? It’s a theory that would be nearly impossible to prove. We’d also need to see a bigger move to confirm a Bitcoin breakdown. But it’s worth watching as Bitcoin approaches $27K again. If this rally fails, it’ll be another lower-high — and a quick test of $25K could be next. Markets (and life) are moving faster these days. I’ll try my best to keep things on beach time this week. But I can’t promise that these bubbly tech stocks will do the same… We’ll catch up with the action next week. In the meantime, do you agree with my thoughts on AI and tech? Let me know by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Over 62 And Collect Social Security? Take Action Immediately!]( [Click here to learn more]( [If you’re over the age of 62 and currently collect Social Security, you need to prepare now](. Because Biden has given our country the worst inflation in decades – and many warn things will only get worse from here. Worse yet, the Social Security check you receive now may not keep pace with inflation… [Which is why, if you don’t act now, you could fall behind in the months ahead](. Is your retirement at immediate risk? [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive inflation](. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… The Coming Lithium Wars Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, Happy Thursday from glorious Northern Italy! Last week, I was watching one of my favorite YouTube channels, [CaspianReport](. Its latest video is “[India discovers $410 billion lithium deposit]( Nice one. CaspianReport has a particular affinity for the BRICS countries and their allies, to be fair. Four of the following five listed videos are: - China plans to dethrone the dollar - Pakistan is dying (and that is a global problem) - Russia plans to annex Belarus by 2030 - Russia and Iran join forces with India I love watching these videos because I’ve been to many countries and find their politics fascinating. Many Western analysts either don’t look at this stuff, don’t understand this stuff, or don’t want to give “the enemy” any ideas. After all, Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs Asset Management coined the term “BRICs” in a marketing ploy to get his research read. Now, they’re America’s #1 headache. And for good reason. And that headache grows larger daily, not least because of India’s lithium find. But first things first. If the Lithium Doesn’t Cross Borders, Will Armies? It’s commonly believed that Claude Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850) coined the phrase, “When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will." Sadly, he never said that. But many, including myself, believe it to be true nonetheless. [The Liberty Fund]( did a bit of digging and found that Otto T. Mallery came the closest to writing the phrase. In his book, Economic Union and Durable Peace, Mallery advocates mutually beneficial economic agreements for the following three reasons: - Economic bargains which are likely to be kept are preferable to political agreements which are likely to be broken. - If soldiers are not to cross international boundaries on missions of war, goods must cross them on missions of peace. - Unless shackles can be dropped from trade, bombs will inevitably drop from the sky. (p.10) Though I’d never heard of Mallery before, I liked him immediately. Incentives are better than promises. What concerns me about all these metal finds is they’re not happening in the West. Europe is resource-poor. That’s why it’s always had to become an empire of some sort. Financial historian and world-famous author Niall Ferguson's theory of empires and resources suggests that empires' success largely depends on their ability to control and exploit resources. According to Ferguson, empires that can secure access to resources at a lower cost than their competitors are more likely to be successful in the long run. If the BRICS control the resources, where does this leave the West? It’s a conundrum I’ve not been able to answer. But it can’t be good. Lithium is essential because of green power and electric vehicles. Rightly or wrongly, this is the direction the world is heading. So let’s start at the beginning. [URGENT From Jim Rickards: Join Me LIVE On Friday Morning?]( Hey, it’s Jim Rickards… and whatever you have planned for this upcoming Friday at 10 AM Eastern, I suggest you cancel. Because I’ll be hosting a LIVE Zoom call where I’m going to break down my latest predictions for 2023. [Just click here now to see how to reserve your seat](. [LEARN MORE]( What is Lithium? If you’re a Sopranos fan, lithium is what made Tony see this beautiful creature in Season 1: [The Sopranos character] Credit:[The Sopranos via Uproxx]( Maria Grazia Cucinotta. Impossibly beautiful. I never wanted to take drugs so badly. Alas, she was a figment of Tony’s imagination. Let us raise a glass to Tony’s imagination. But mental health treatment is only one of lithium’s uses. Can you imagine teenage boys taking a dose of lithium while wearing Apple’s new virtual reality headsets? In a month, you’d have to buy them guide dogs… Ok, what is lithium, and what else is it for? Lithium is a soft silver-white metal within the Alkali group of the periodic table. It is a crucial component of electric batteries used widely, from smartphones to electric vehicles. Batteries: Lithium's most extensive single use is in Lithium-ion batteries. They’re rechargeable batteries in many electronic devices, including smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles. Lithium's high demand for these batteries is due to its ability to store a large amount of energy relative to its weight and volume. Mental Health Treatment: As mentioned, lithium is used to manage bipolar disorder. It can help control mania episodes - periods of excessively elevated mood and behavior. Aerospace and Military Applications: Lithium and its compounds make special glasses and ceramics, including the Mount Palomar telescope's 200-inch mirror. Lithium deuteride was the fusion fuel in experimental thermonuclear weapons. Lubricating Greases: Lithium is used as a thickener for lubricating greases, which is its most significant non-battery use. Lithium greases are stable at high temperatures, water-resistant, and resist the effects of oxidation. Air Treatment: Lithium chloride and lithium bromide are hygroscopic materials used in air conditioning and industrial drying systems. Metallurgy: Lithium (as lithium carbonate) is used in the manufacture of iron, aluminum, and certain kinds of steel to improve their strength and hardness. So lithium is essential and versatile. Now, where did they find this big haul? Where (in India, China, or Pakistan) is Jammu and Kashmir? [map] Credit:[Pinterest]( It’s a mess. Three countries lay claim to the area, and sometimes, the area itself wants independence. So not only do you have some BRICs arguing between themselves, you’ve got India and Pakistan quibbling as well. A brief history of Kashmir from 1947: When British colonial rule ended in 1947, the princely states, including Jammu and Kashmir, could accede to India or Pakistan or remain independent. Jammu and Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim state ruled by a Hindu maharaja, chose to stay independent initially. However, when Pakistani tribal militias invaded the state, Maharaja Hari Singh requested military assistance from India. He agreed to accede to India in exchange for military aid, which led to the first Indo-Pakistan war. The United Nations (UN) intervened in 1948, calling for a ceasefire and a plebiscite to determine the region's future. The referendum, however, never occurred. In the meantime, the region of Jammu and Kashmir was essentially divided along what became known as the Line of Control. Over the decades, several wars and numerous skirmishes have occurred in the region, notably the wars of 1965 and 1971 and the Kargil War in 1999. An armed insurgency, beginning in the late 1980s, escalated the conflict further, with accusations of human rights abuses by both the Indian military and separatist movements. From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict has been complicated by other factors, such as the strategic interests of China, which also controls a part of the territory known as Aksai Chin. [There is MASSIVE change happening within our company]( And I want you to [hear about this – from me]( – otherwise this new policy could blindside you. This has gone into effect immeditaly, so I want you to understand exactly what it will mean for you. [So please, watch this video for my full announcement.]( [LEARN MORE]( Back to the Lithium Picture this — it's 1997, and a geological survey in Jammu and Kashmir, India, whispers tales of lurking lithium reserves. However, the echoes of potential riches fall on deaf ears as lithium’s value at the time was equivalent to little more than pocket change. Thus, it was deemed unworthy of further exploration. Fast forward to the present day — 26 years have flown by, and India, in a plot twist worthy of a blockbuster film, stumbles upon a mind-boggling 5.9 million tons of lithium deposits in the same region. Suddenly, India leaps up the global leaderboard, rubbing shoulders with the heavyweights in the lithium reserve arena. Imagine the possibilities. This could turbocharge India's transformation into a green energy titan. However, as we know all too well, even the slightest tremor can trigger a geopolitical landslide. The fact that these deposits reside exclusively in India's territory may churn the simmering pot of conflict involving the three powers. Yet, India's lithium jackpot isn't just another ripple in the pond of world affairs. It's a seismic wave in our global village, where a disturbance in India could spell a trade tsunami for the US and India. After all, the lines we draw on maps are as influential as rivers carving out valleys. And there's no better stage for this grand theater of territorial claims, physical geography, and real control than Kashmir, a melting pot of cultural influences nestled at the heart of South and Central Asia. The lithium windfall could be a lifeline for India's struggling manufacturing sector. It could bolster the country's ability to produce high-tech goods, such as smartphones and solar panels, and launch India into the vanguard of emerging technology industries. With a whopping $2.2 billion incentive scheme on the table, New Delhi aims to kickstart battery cell production and lure in mining and processing infrastructure. Given that the investment appetite for lithium has rocketed thirty-fold since 2010 and is predicted to multiply six times in the next two decades, it’s clear that India is betting big on a green future. India's ambition doesn't stop there. The nation hopes to have renewables powering half its energy needs by 2030, slicing the emissions intensity of its GDP by a commendable 45%. This aspiration isn't just an item on India's to-do list; it has global climate implications, considering that India is home to a sizable slice of the world’s population. However, before we pop the champagne and toast to a greener future, some naysayers dampen the party mood. Critics argue that the shimmer of the lithium lode may not be as bright as it seems, highlighting potential environmental, geological, and financial extraction costs. But then again, critics always rain on parades, don't they? In the grand scheme of things, this dramatic revelation underscores the dance between opportunity and responsibility, particularly in the compelling narrative of India's unfolding lithium saga. Wrap Up There’s lots of “stuff” in the ground, and the race to get it heats up. This time it’s lithium. And it’s not just India. Iran has just stumbled onto its own lithium stash. If the BRICS have one thing, it’s natural resources. Are we sure we want to remain their adversaries? Let me know what you think by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. The Daily Reckoning is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your The Daily Reckoning subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting The Daily Reckoning.](