Extra! Extra! NYC Wasn’t So Bad!

Though this trip back to NYC saw orange clouds, I had a great time. [The Rude Awakening] June 12, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Extra! Extra! NYC Wasn’t So Bad! - When it comes to NYC: Expect the worst, and hope for the best. - Despite Canada’s wildfire clouds, the city wasn’t so bad. - By Friday, I was almost sad to leave. [There is MASSIVE change happening within our company.]( And I want you to [hear about this – from me]( – otherwise this new policy could blindside you. This has gone into effect immeditaly, so I want you to understand exactly what it will mean for you. [So please, watch this video for my full announcement.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Monday from an overcast Asti! I came back from New York City on Saturday afternoon. I’m still a bit groggy, as I had little sleep on the flight. Pam and Micah greeted me in Milan. It’s lovely when someone picks you up at the airport. I much prefer that to taking the train home. But I must say, I had a wonderful time in NYC. I was surprised because, as you may remember, last year’s trip was a disappointment. Rats, weed, piss… You name it - I nearly stepped on it. The only thing disappointing about this trip was that I didn’t see any rats! That’s probably because I was in Midtown, where the footfall is heavy, rather than in Downtown, which is little more than a ghost town at night. So let me take you on a small tour of the Big Apple and how I spent my time there. You may find some of these tips useful the next time you’re there. JFK Still Sucks Ok, it wasn’t all going to be rosy. Fly into Newark. Or LaGuardia. And then file that under “things I never thought I’d say.” Flying into JFK is like getting miniaturized and inserted into a rectal exam. And though I got through the airport much faster than last time, I’d still rather use any other airport. I suppose I’m spoiled from having lived in Singapore for six years. But I think every airport authority on the planet should fly into Changi, take notes, and copy what they’re doing. It’s simply the best organized airport in the world. Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel A four-star hotel, the Sheraton is well located for all things Midtown. The rooms were clean and pretty spacious. The service was excellent. I particularly liked the bar in the lobby, but you knew I’d say that. The conference I was teaching at was hosted there, so my commute was only 43 floors down. If I had further business in Midtown, I’d stay there again. Churrascarria Plataforma [SJN] Ok, let’s get to the food. My friends and colleagues Andy, Graham, Steve, and I were thinking about dinner on Thursday night. I suggested my favorite Brazilian steakhouse, [Churrascarria Plataforma]( on 49th Street. And it was just around the corner. I hadn’t been there for years. But the last time I took my family over 15 years ago, they loved the meat feast. Still carrying a 4.5-star ranking on Google and fists full of awards over the years, I couldn’t see a slip in their standards. The meat was excellent. The sirloin steaks were delectable, but my favorite was the lamb. The filet mignon wrapped in bacon was also delicious. Of course, we drank caipirinhas, the traditional Brazilian cocktail, to wash our meat down. A caipirinha is Brazil's national cocktail, made with cachaça (sugarcane hard liquor), sugar, and lime. Caipirinhas are similar to Cuba’s mojitos. Mojitos have five ingredients: white rum, sugar (traditionally sugar cane juice), lime juice, soda water, and mint. I love them both. But I go for caipirinhas in Brazilian places and mojitos in Cuban places. And then, for dessert, I swallowed the creme brulee nearly whole. Amazing. Serafina Italian Restaurant Broadway [SJN] Pam had told me that, by complete coincidence, my brother- and sister-in-law were in town with their friends. It was my sister-in-law’s birthday, so they decided to head to New York for a few days. About a year ago, they moved to Wisconsin for work, so it’s only a short trip for them. It was great to see them. And for Zyrine’s birthday, she had chosen [Serafina Italian Restaurant Broadway](. I thought, “Why does everyone want to eat Italian in New York?” Especially since I eat Italian food every day! Nevertheless, I showed up, and much to my surprise, this restaurant was nearly Piedmontese. I can’t give it a higher compliment. Since I was the first to arrive, I ordered a mojito at the bar. The bartender sounded Cuban, so I thought I’d give it a shot. The drink was lovely. After everyone else arrived, we were seated. An Aperol spritz for each of us quickly followed. An Aperol spritz is a popular Italian cocktail made with Aperol, Prosecco, and soda water. It is usually served over ice with a slice of orange. (Aperol is an Italian aperitif made with bitter orange, gentian, rhubarb, and cinchona, among other ingredients.) Then we ordered some starters, which included Italian tagliere. Tagliere is like French charcuterie, but is served with all sorts of Italian salamis and cheeses. The word “tagliere” means cutting board or platter, and that’s what the meat and cheese are served on. I couldn’t believe how fresh the meat was. Top notch. For dinner, I ate the tagliolini tartufo nero, which is homemade tagliolini, Italian black truffle, and Parmigiano Reggiano. It was outstanding. In fact, it was so good, I didn’t take note of what the others were eating. Everyone seemed thrilled with the meal, though. [Breaking: Did Biden Really Blow Up Nord Stream?!]( [Click here to learn more]( New evidence has just been released the all but PROVES a shocking truth… President Biden gave the green light to blow up Russia’s Nord Stream Pipeline! According to [this shocking new expose]( Crippling fuel shortages… widespread “Biden blackouts”… and energy bills rocketing to $1000… Are about to hit American shores as a result. [Click here to learn the TRUTH about Nord Stream and how it will impact YOU](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Playwright [SJN] My friend and colleague at Paradigm Press, Chris Harris, was kind enough to spend time with Andy and me on our last day in New York. We found a place close to our hotel, so I could return and grab my bags before taking a taxi to JFK. [Playwright]( fit the bill perfectly. It had a long, spacious bar with plenty of stools. Our bartender was attentive. And the beer tasted great. I can usually tell when a bar doesn’t clean its beer pipes. This pub certainly does. [SJN] Andy, Sean, and Chris at The Playwright. It must have been early. All in all, it was a fun place. Wrap Up Ok, NYC hasn’t cured itself of all its ills. But if you’re in town for a spell, you can do much worse than try out these places. Have a lovely week ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… The Birthday Problem [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Friday from the Big Orange! We’ve been suffering the Canadian wildfire haze this week, but that hasn’t dampened our spirits. The class I’ve been teaching with bosom bud Andy has gone well. The kids are from an absolute smorgasbord of the best schools in America. We’ve got Harvard, Michigan, Washington University in St. Louis, Penn State, Colorado, Colorado State, and my trusty alma mater, Villanova, among others. And they’re really sweet young people, as well. Andy was teaching about data and statistics when I chipped in with my favorite statistics problem. It blew their minds, as it did mine when I first learned about it. Since my mathy Rudes seem to go over well, I thought I’d share it with you. The Question When I interjected in Andy’s class (with his permission, of course), I asked one question: What is the probability that at least two of you have the same birthday? To be clear, we’re just looking for day and month, not year. So my birthday is December 20, 1974. We’d consider December 20, 1990, a match because we’re not looking at the year. There are 229 students, 2 teachers, and five bank support staff in the room for a total of 236 people. Now if you never heard of this famous problem before, you may offer something like “1 in a million” like I did. It’s not even close to the correct answer, as you’ll see. To their great credit, the kids didn’t offer any outlandish answers like I did. Most guesses were from “very low” to “50%” to “63%” to “very high” and “above 90%.” I was impressed. But the answer is 99.99999%. Don’t believe it? I’ll prove it to you. The Birthday Problem Explained Before I show you the math, let me tell you what happened in class. After I asked the question and got those very good answers, I said, “Now, let’s have some fun.” I then asked, “Who has a January birthday?” About 25 people raised their hands. Then and there, I knew we’d have a match. I pointed to a young intern, and asked, “What date were you born on?” “January 17th,” she replied. “Any of you with your hands up born on the 17th?” I asked. One of the other interns had his hand up. The class clapped uproariously. I said, “Wow! The rabbit came out of my hat on the first try!” The kids marveled. Since I already knew the math, I wasn’t surprised at all. [Insider Reveals A Breakthrough New Way To Profit From AI]( Do not… I repeat… [Do NOT buy any AI stocks until you watch this short video in full.]( [Click here to learn more]( You’re about to discover a breakthrough new way to profit from the rise of AI that has never been revealed before. the types of companies we target with this strategy have shown top-performing gains like 1,167% in 11 days, 1,779% in 13 days and even 2,900% in just 3 days. Starting with $5,000, that’d be enough to walk away with profits like $63,350, $93,950 and $150,000 – all in a matter of days. But you must hurry… (As this is time sensitive). [Click here now for details on this new AI strategy.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( The Math Behind The Birthday Problem Alright, let's dive deeper into the math behind the Birthday Problem. Don't worry, I promise it won't be as daunting as it sounds! The probability is easier to calculate if we consider the opposite: what is the probability that all people in a group have different birthdays? First, consider an empty room and the first person who walks in. The probability that their birthday is not shared with anyone else (since they're alone) is 100% or 365 out of 365. Now, the second person who comes in can have any of the remaining 364 days as their birthday to not share it with the first person. So the probability for the second person is 364 out of 365. As the third person enters, they must avoid the two existing birthdays, so their probability is 363 out of 365. As you continue this process, the probabilities keep declining for each new person. So, for a group of 23 people, you'd multiply these individual probabilities together: Let P = Probability. P(all different) = (365/365) x (364/365) x (363/365) x ... x (343/365) This comes out to around 0.4927, or a 49.27% chance that all 23 people have different birthdays. But remember, we want the probability that at least two people share a birthday. So, we subtract the "all different" probability from 1: P(at least one shared) = 1 - P(all different) = 1 - 0.4927 = 0.5073, or 50.73% So, surprisingly, in a group of just 23 people, there's over a 50% chance that at least two people share the same birthday! This is the surprising and counter-intuitive result that makes the Birthday Problem so fascinating. For you traders out there, this means “take the bet” if there are 23 people in the room. By the time we get to 57 people, the chances are just over 99% that two people will have the same birthday. So with over 230 people in the room, the call was a no-brainer. Here’s a chart of the Birthday Problem outcomes: [SJN] Credit: Sean Ring I knew of the Birthday Problem because I read a book called Chance, by Amir Aczel, a long time ago. Aczel was a statistics professor who wrote that little book because he was so frustrated at the innumeracy displayed daily. [I share his opinion](. Aczel dedicated an entire chapter to the Birthday Problem because it’s so counterintuitive, even statisticians have trouble with it. So don’t fret if you’re still trying to understand it. Professional mathematicians are still trying to understand it. But more than that, it’s a reminder to not use our guts when it comes to financial decision-making. It’s important to think of the statistics behind our choices. Wrap Up Today’s short Rude is a reminder we don’t know it all, and we may never will. But that’s okay because every advantage acquired brings us closer to the life we want. Just being aware of this paradox puts you in a special club. May knowing this increase your intellectual curiosity and eagerness to learn. Have a wonderful and restful weekend! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. 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