NYC Re-Run: Piss and Vinegar and Weed

New York City is an older, angrier version of its former self [The Rude Awakening] June 06, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( NYC Re-Run: Piss and Vinegar and Weed - I started my banking career in New York City in 1997. - By then, Rudy Giuliani had turned the place into Disneyland. - Now, the whole place stinks of piss and weed. [There is MASSIVE change happening within our company.]( And I want you to [hear about this – from me]( – otherwise this new policy could blindside you. This has gone into effect immeditaly, so I want you to understand exactly what it will mean for you. [So please, watch this video for my full announcement.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning on this fine Tuesday. I wrote this piece last year, when I returned to New York for the first time in many years. I’m taking off from Milan Malpensa to return to the Big Apple to teach a 3-day course for interns at one of the US megabanks. Luckily, one of my best friends, Andy, is co-teaching with me. We’ll be able to get out and about a bit… if it’s safe enough to. I’ll be writing for the rest of the week from NYC, so I hope to get you on-the-ground details of what’s going on there. But first, let me refresh you with what I wrote last July. --------------------------------------------------------------- I’m still in New York City. The state of the place… It’s incredible how people inside the fishbowl can’t see what’s happening. That’s true of us all to a certain extent. But this is a city of millions, and you’d think someone would notice the deterioration. Asia spoiled me with its pristine hotels, clean streets, and rule of law. Yes, the rule of law exists there, and it’s a beautiful thing. So I suppose it’s easy for me to notice what a hole the place has become. October 1999 When I was 23 and working at Credit Suisse at Eleven Madison Avenue, I met a gorgeous intern. She was a 20-year-old Korean who had a body to die for. J was my first girlfriend on Wall Street. My other relationships were of a more transient sort. I’ll never forget our first date. I took her to a bar just off Union Square for a pre-dinner drink. Then, we went to a lovely new Italian restaurant in Alphabet City, a formerly dangerous place. We had a lovely meal. And she kept up with the drinks. Koreans are called “Asia’s Irish” for a reason. To top off the night, I took her to The Greatest Bar on Earth, at the top of the World Trade Center. As we sat at the bar, she leaned over and kissed me. It was a sloppy, drunken kiss, but I didn’t care. I was on top of the world. After, she said, “Sean, this is the greatest night of my life.” Then… she promptly threw up on the bar. I almost shit myself. I yelled over to Frank, my all-time favorite New York bartender, and he quickly got the cleanup materials. The patrons lifted their glasses in perfect synchronicity as the vomit oozed down the bar like a molasses tidal wave. I escorted her to the bathroom, where she proceeded to fall asleep on the toilet for an hour. Not wanting her to go home alone - she lived just off Kissena Boulevard - I tried to book us a cab to Queens for her and then back to Joisey for me. I couldn’t find one, so I wound up hiring a limo to do it for $140. Cost of that date: $700. Dating that hottie for two more years: Priceless. When I informed her that I was moving to London, she was angry, to say the least. She couldn’t understand why I’d leave the greatest city on earth to go to England. Even when she visited me in London two years later, she hated the place. NYC was her home. It was the best, and that’s that. We eventually broke up because I refused to return home. NYLON (New York-London) relationships never last anyway. But at the time, her claim that NYC was the greatest city on earth was well-founded. It was clean, practically crimeless, and heaps of fun. [“The Situation Is Getting Worse By The Day”]( That’s what the President of the US Chamber of Commerce just said about the supply chain. If you thought the supply chain issues were over, think again… Things are about to get much, much worse. And everything from your local grocery store to your gas station could be impacted. That’s why I’m urging everyone I can to prepare now… [To see the #1 move to make before this problem gets any worse, click here now.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Christmas 2005 A few years later, I brought my Hungarian girlfriend home for Christmas. N was also a hottie with a rack that brought tears of gratitude to my eyes. But it was different this time. It was post-9/11. Unbeknownst to me, New York had changed, and not for the better. I brought her to Madison Avenue, where I used to work. We stood at the intersection of Broadway and 5th Avenue, right at the base of the Flatiron Building. I held my arms out wide and said, “What do you think of this place?” She looked at me and said, “It’s really quiet.” My head snapped around at her, and I was like, “What… are… you… talking….” I stopped mid-sentence. She was right. I could hear a pin drop. An eerie silence pervaded Grammercy. I didn’t like it at all. Christmas 2013 Pam and I were married in the Raffles Hotel two-and-a-half years earlier. But I was smart about bringing her to the US. I knew that most people fall in love with the first genuinely foreign city they see. So I brought her “home” to London for the 2012 Olympics. We had a wonderful time with all my friends. I took her on the Eurostar to Paris, as well, for a bit of romance. I wanted her to fall for Europe, not the States. It worked. When I finally brought her home to meet my parents - yes, after two years of marriage - we went to New York City. She hated the place, which I found charming. A few years later, English friends who’d moved to NYC started to hate then-Mayor Bill DeBlasio. They promptly moved back to the UK. I didn’t think a mayor could cause so much damage. Since then, I’ve been proven wrong. Today This entire town smells like piss (and vinegar) and weed. It’s an angry place, that’s become downright dangerous. There’s a frantic pace about it, though. Much louder than my previous visits. I’m glad to see that. But at nights in Midtown, the place is empty. My guess is that crime drives the money spenders inside their homes. Last night, I sat in a lovely little pub called The Wheeltapper, under the Fitzpatrick Hotel near Grand Central. It’s a quiet place where one can enjoy a decent pint. Except the pints now cost $10 apiece. But I remember the days these pubs were packed on Wednesday nights. Even Grand Central Station itself was much quieter than I ever remember it. Today, I spent $21.83 on two hot dogs and a bottle of San Pellegrino for lunch. Perhaps it’s not the crime; it’s the expense. Wrap Up I long for the safety, affordability, and fun of Giuliani-era Manhattan. The beers were cheap, the nights were long, and the ladies were safe (and gorgeous). Now, it’s a hodgepodge of dope, open-air urinals, and idiotically expensive booze. Having the New York Fed print money on your turf is good. But when it gets out of control, the city loses its soul. Until tomorrow. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… May 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Monday from sunny Northern Italy! Sorry that I’m a day late (for the second consecutive month). But, this was actually lucky. While May’s weekly charts ended on Thursday last week, we already know what happened on Friday. So let’s cheat a bit. On Friday, the S&P 500 finally broke the dreaded 4,200 level. In fact, we’re at 4,282 as of Friday’s close. That’s a full two percent above 4,200. My guess is the bots will jump on this and buy like gangbusters. The next resistance level is 4,450 or so. So there’s plenty of room to the upside, from a technical standpoint. But here’s the onion: on May 31st, Nikileaks (Nick Timiraos) wrote a piece in The Wall Street Journal titled, “[Fed Prepares to Skip June Rate Rise but Hike Later]( An independent source of mine has confirmed the same. I think Jay Powell pausing here is utter lunacy. The reason why is that the markets will interpret this “pause” as a “pivot” and rocket the equities markets to the moon. Then, when Powell is forced to raise again, look out below! It’s a recipe for disaster and yet another unforced error. As for commodities, many have asked, “Why is oil so low?” My answer is this: we’re already in a global recession, and if the CBs around the world didn’t print so much needless cash, oil might have been trading around $10 a barrel. Now, let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 [SJN] The Nasdaq’s rising tide is lifting all boats. Though this chart shows us ending below 4,200, we’re now well above that level. If the Fed pauses this month, the next stop is 4,450. Nasdaq Composite [SJN] Two thousand zero zero party over it’s out of time So tonight I’m gonna party like it’s 1999… We’ve rallied nearly 3,000 points this year in the Nazzie. That’s nearly 33%. If this is a sucker’s rally, it’ll be a painful resolution. It’s worth noting 76 of the 101 Nasdaq stocks are in positive territory. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [SJN] I still think this is the canary in the coal mine. The spread between the tech stocks and the small caps is getting too wide here. I’d like some participation from the Russell stocks before I get comfortable with the tech and board market rallies. The US 10-Year Yield [pub] We rose twenty bps (0.20%) since our last asset class report. My comment from two months ago remains: This is because the market thinks the Fed is done hiking and will cut soon. I don’t think the Fed is done hiking, nor do I think it’ll cut soon after. There will be a decent interval between the end of the hikes and the beginning of the cuts. So I think we’re going up from here, though the entire market disagrees with me. Dollar Index [SJN] The dollar is up hard, but stocks didn’t fall. The important thing to remember is that the euro is 57% of the basket the dollar is weighed against. So no matter what you think about the dollar, you need to take the awful euro into consideration. A pause will send the dollar down… temporarily. USG Bonds [SJN] Last month’s comment still stands: We’ve been rangebound for months now. If rates head higher, TLT will head back down to 90. If rates stay where they are, we’ll have a slight upside bias to 115.00. Investment Grade Bonds [SJN] Again, from last month: Same story here. LQD didn’t move this month. Higher rates mean heading to 97. Flat to lower rates send LQD to 111 and then 116. High Yield Bonds [SJN] Again, from last month: After that big rally last month, we haven’t moved. We got to get comfortably above 76 before we can get bullish. If rates continue increasing, HYG heads to 72 and then 69. Real Estate [SJN] We resumed the down move, finally. Below here, the first level is 77. Then onto 74. [Warning: Will “Bidenflation” Destroy Your Retirement?]( [Click here to learn more]( If you’re like most Americans, you’ve worked hard for decades to build your financial legacy. And now, as a result of Biden’s disastrous money printing policies, that’s all at risk. According to one top retirement expert, “Bidenflation” threatens to destroy your retirement and make your hard-earned savings worthless. That’s why you must take action right away to protect yourself… [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive “Bidenflation.”]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Base Metals: Copper [SJN] From last month: Down about 20 cents this month, copper’s consolidation zone is starting to sag. Still, it’s too early to call. A break below here, and we’ll head down to 3.60 or so. Yup, copper’s price action is dreadful. Once we get below 3.60, we’re onto 3.35, then 3.25. Precious Metals: Gold [SJN] From last month: We finally broke above $2,000… and then came right back down. I’m still bullish on gold and reckon it’ll hit $3,000 from here. But before then, expect lots of movement around this $2,000 mark. It takes some time to break away psychologically. If Jim Rickards is right about the new BRICS currency, then you still have time to get in. Precious Metals: Silver [SJN] Just when I told you to get excited, silver fell out of bed. Honestly, I think we’ll turn this back around quickly. It’s just a pause in the upside. Cryptos: Bitcoin [SJN] BTC got thumped on the head and is trading at around $27,000. Again, this looks to be a plateau on which consolidation is building. Cryptos: Ether [SJN] From two months ago: A good chart, but not as good as Bitcoin’s. I want to see a sustained move above $2,000 before I get excited about ETH. We’re flat this month, but I can see a rally coming here if the Fed loses the plot. Trad Asset Class Summary [SJN] The USD rallied hard for the second straight month. The SPX was slightly up as well. But last Friday, June 1st, which isn’t included on this chart, we have a strong follow-through rally. Bonds were down over 1%, while commodities got crushed to the tune of nearly 5%. Commodities currently suffer from a strong dollar and a weak real economy. Crypto Class Summary [SJN] Ripple, Litecoin, and Ether led the way, while Bitcoin, Monero, and Dogecoin suffered losses. Wrap Up Again, if Jay Powell pauses, we’ll have a huge rally because the market will mistake that for a pivot. And then he’ll rise rates some more before he breaks something. And then, after much pain, he’ll cut. In the meantime, enjoy the rally. Finally, let’s take a moment to enjoy this meme, courtesy of the Twitterverse: [SJN] Have a great day! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. 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