Breaking the DC Swamp’s Laws

Why I Root for the “Bad” Guys [Morning Reckoning] June 01, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Breaking the DC Swamp’s Laws - What happens when you create your own market… - Ship your goods out of your warm water ports… - With boats that are accountable to no country? [Urgent Notice From Paradigm CIO Zach Scheidt!]( [Click here to learn more]( Hi, Zach Scheidt here… I’m the Chief Income Officer at Paradigm Press. With inflation raging (and showing no signs of coming to an end any time soon), almost everyone in America is feeling the pain in a big way. Which is why, several months ago, I set out on a big mission… my goal was to create a [complete, step-by-step plan to surviving and beating inflation]( one that anyone could take advantage of. Today, after hundreds of hours of research, I’m revealing all of my findings. [Simply click here now to see how to survive America’s deadly inflation crisis](. [LEARN MORE]( Asti, Northern Italy June 01, 2023 [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, Gather around, So you may hear, Of the midnight tides, Bringing black gold here. Paraphrasing Henry Wadsworth Longfellow is a challenging task. In Paul Revere’s Ride, Longfellow waxed lyrical about the greatest alarm bell ever rung. Writing in 1860, on the eve of the Civil War, hoping to dissolve the tension, Longfellow noted that “hardly a man is now alive who remembers that famous day and year.” That year was 1775. Revere rode through Charlestown, Medford and then on through Lexington and Concord to warn the Americans that the British were coming! One if by land, and two if by sea; And I on the opposite shore will be, Ready to ride and spread the alarm Through every Middlesex village and farm, For the country-folk to be up and to arm. The poem is historically inaccurate. But with Longfellow’s poetic license, Revere became the ultimate messenger-warrior. What about this poetic rendition of events that puffs out your chest, straightens your back, raises your chin and clenches your fists? You may disagree. But I think it’s because Revere was a bad boy, shaking his fist at Mad King George III. Summer Movie Season, 1988 I couldn’t wait to see Die Hard. Moonlighting’s Bruce Willis, one of my favorite sitcom stars, finally hit the big time. He was excellent with Cybill Shepherd. Funny, sarcastic, and whip-smart, Willis’ David Addison was a hoot in every episode. But what would he be like on the big screen? So many TV stars had tried to make the jump but failed. Would Willis be any different? Sitting in my comfy seat with salty popcorn, Twizzlers, and a Coke, I remember being disappointed at what a dick John McClane was. Grouchy, unhappy to be in California and downright ornery to his successful wife, I was surprised Willis even took the role. But then… he appeared. Hans Gruber. The greatest villain ever committed to film. As I watched the movie, I questioned myself. Why was I having these feelings? Was I actually rooting for the bad guy? Suave, debonair and urbane, Gruber didn’t move through scenes so much as glide through them. He was the epitome of cosmopolitan, wore tailored suits, a trimmed beard and could speak multiple accents. (At the time, I had never heard of Alan Rickman… and didn’t know he was an Englishman playing a German!) His wit, sarcasm and dialogue were as rich as a French gateau, compared to the Reese’s Pieces Hollywood had previously fed me. Something had changed in me that day. Or, more precisely, activated a dormant gene. I’d say it was lucky because I’d later find out girls preferred bad boys to good ones… [Has World War III Just Begun?]( NATO sends tanks to Ukraine… Russia prepares for a winter offensive… [Is the beginning of World War III?]( [Click here to learn more]( I’ve just released an urgent message with my thoughts. But more importantly, I’m offering to send you an [exact playbook]( on what I see playing out in the world and what you need to do to prepare. [Simply click here now to watch my short message and to see how to claim a copy completely free of charge.]( [LEARN MORE]( Why Do Girls Always Go for the Bad Boys? In our late summer, autumn, or winter years, we rue the days when we didn’t know any better. “If I knew then what I know now…” we often say as we lament our past indiscretions. But Mark Twain had it right. We regret what we haven’t done far more than what we did. And that leads me to the ladies. So many women I’ve met in my life wanted a man who was just a bit naughty. Not an evil man. Or an unjust man. And certainly not a bully. But one who would break the rules when the rules didn’t — or shouldn’t — apply. So, fine… I’d be a bit naughty. Heck, [@seaniechaos]( my Twitter handle, is the nickname my old Kiwi girlfriend gave me in honor of our wild nights in London. I wear that badge with honor nearly twenty years later. As to my confusion, Jordan Peterson, a Canadian psychologist, professor and public intellectual, cleared it up for me. Peterson called Beauty and the Beast a real female hero myth and used it to make his point. (And his point is, essentially, biology.) Peterson says Beauty — Belle — is intelligent, resourceful and truthful… everything a man wants in a woman. But she doesn’t go for the psychopathic Gaston. She’s too smart for that. Belle wants The Beast. The Beast is a terrible man… but he’s got potential. He can guard the walls and make a safe haven for the children. The Beast is productive enough to be valuable and generous enough to share the proceeds of his endeavors with his family. In short, women want their men to be dangerous, but dangerous on their behalf. Paradoxically, this “bad boy” behavior is the way to preserve the family line. And that’s what the female wants. The Beast Who Controls Himself Again, women aren’t looking for evil men. Just naughty men. Ones who’ll break the rules when necessary to protect their family. In an interview with Jocko Willink of Extreme Ownership fame, Peterson said this: A good man is not a harmless man. A good man is a very, very dangerous man who has that under voluntary control. Peterson’s point is that men incapable of cruelty aren’t fully formed. “Nice guys” who can’t contemplate cruelty are at the mercy of those who can. And that’s the most vulnerable someone can be. The definition of Peterson’s “good man” describes many of our fictional heroes. James Bond. Indiana Jones. Jack Aubrey. Jack Ryan. Rick Blaine. And it probably describes your grandfather and your uncles. Maybe even your father. I know it describes mine. That’s why we love and trust these men. That’s why we aspire to be like them. What Does This Have to Do With Anything? We had our editorial meeting yesterday and it went off on the most extraordinary tangent. Paradigm Press VP Doug Hill asked the group about oil. Our good friend Byron King jumped in immediately to talk about it. But it took a turn towards that black gold, from the country by the Black Sea, using a “shadow fleet,” as Byron called it, to keep the world economy afloat. Like my 14-year-old self, I know I shouldn’t be rooting for the “bad guys” or the people “breaking the law” as set by the DC Swamp. But I’m with Cicero, who once said, “The more laws, the less justice.” There’s a difference between natural law (thou shalt not kill) and legislation (thou owe the military-industrial complex 39.6% of your income). Cicero knew many laws do not necessarily guarantee true justice or a well-functioning legal system. Instead, he suggested too many laws can lead to confusion, loopholes and a lack of clarity in applying justice. Simplicity, clarity, and fairness in legal systems are far better than an excessive and convoluted legal framework. And when too many laws exist, black markets tend to form. Black Markets A black market is an illegal or unregulated market where goods or services are traded without government oversight or authorization. The wild west of commerce is where the forbidden fruit becomes the hot commodity. Certain goods and services may be prohibited by law or heavily regulated, either due to safety concerns, ethical reasons, or simply the whims of a rogue government. But there's always someone willing to supply where there's a demand, even if it means operating outside the boundaries of legality. So, the black market steps in to fill the gaps. It's where you can find all sorts of illicit goodies, like illegal drugs, counterfeit products, smuggled weapons, endangered wildlife, pirated media, or even black gold. In short, if there's a law against it, you'll likely find it thriving in the black market. Why do black markets form? Here are a few possibilities: - Prohibition or Illegalization: When certain goods or services are prohibited or heavily regulated by the government, it creates a gap between the demand and the legal supply. Black markets thrive by providing access to prohibited or restricted items, such as illegal drugs, banned weapons, or counterfeit goods. - Economic Factors: Economic disparities, high taxes, or excessive regulations can create an environment where legal markets become inaccessible or unaffordable for some individuals. - Limited Supply or Scarce Resources: When essential commodities become scarce, black markets can arise to distribute goods in high demand but in short supply. This includes food shortages, fuel crises, or medical supplies during emergencies. - Evading Taxes or Regulations: Some individuals or businesses evade taxes, regulations, or bureaucratic red tape. By operating outside the legal framework, they can avoid paying taxes, circumvent licensing requirements, or bypass costly compliance measures. - Cultural or Social Factors: Cultural or social norms may clash with legal restrictions. This can be observed in gambling, sex work, or the trade of cultural artifacts, which are heavily regulated or considered illegal but still in demand. - Failed Government Policies: In cases where government policies fail to address social or economic needs adequately, black markets can arise as a form of self-regulation or survival strategy. Wrap Up If you’ve been reading the Rude or the Reckoning for a while now, you know we are entirely against the USG and EU sanctions imposed on Russia. Not because we think Vlad Putin is a nice guy, but because we knew and called very early that the sanctions would hurt the US and EU citizenry and not Russia’s. And we were right from Day One. These sanctions are what’s creating this incredible black market for black gold. To be completely upfront, the people running these markets are probably “good men,” as we defined above. It takes a lot to oppose the allegedly most powerful military and economy globally. As someone in Europe paying top euro for gas, I’m grateful these black marketeers keep the prices lower than they would have been. But over the next few weeks, Brian Maher, Byron King and I will look into the questions about the illicit oil trade here in the Old World. So keep watching out for the Rude and the Reckoning as we explore the topic more in-depth. And if you have any of your own questions, be sure to email me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Have a lovely rest of your week! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [New “WiFi Crypto” Token is Going NUTS!]( Only a handful of crypto investors know about this… But there’s a tiny, affordable device… That’s paid investors real crypto – every day, with zero work… Just for having a working WiFi connection! It sounds crazy, but it’s true… And [this 3:28 video]( explains everything. [Click here to view it NOW](. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… The Spread of the AI Brain Worm Greg Guenthner, Editor [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, The artificial intelligence boom has taken the market by storm. In fact, I believe it’s possible that the market’s sudden fascination with all things AI is the main driver of the tech sector’s strong performance so far this year. And I’m not just talking about the bubble basket of smaller AI pure-plays, either… The Nasdaq 100 is now up 30% year-to-date, easily topping the S&P and the Dow. The biggest and best tech firms in the world are destroying everything in their paths — and the frenzy is being led by companies that have been the most vocal about their involvement in the burgeoning artificial intelligence industry: names like Microsoft Inc. (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), and NVIDIA (NVDA). During the first quarter, we discussed the bubbly action in some of the smaller AI names and how traders were grabbing shares of every AI-adjacent stock they could find as the financial media cranked out breathless essays on the newfound power and potential of these innovative companies. Sure, we saw some serious froth. Pure-play AI bubble superstar C3.ai Inc. (AI) jumped more than 200% to kick off Q1 in style. It’s even managed to cling to these gains despite some sloppy consolidation, proving just how serious these speculators are at white-knuckling even the most volatile stocks involved in AI tech. But the insane earnings reaction to NVDA last week shows just how much the AI brain worm has proliferated in just a few short months. Not only did the company beat estimates, management also projected huge sales of chips to meet demand for the coming artificial intelligence boom. What resulted was one of the strongest positive earnings reactions I’ve ever seen… [“Could Outpace Bitcoin In 2023” – The Motley Fool]( Bitcoin is on a tear. At its peak, a $2,500 investment at its March 2020 lows would’ve been worth as much as $31,150. And that explosive growth doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon… Fortune Magazine reports Bitcoin is set to hit $100,000 this year. But as great as that is, one hidden crypto is poised to run even higher… One hedge fund expert says it could overtake Bitcoin as the most valuable crypto in 2023. [Click here now for the full story](. [LEARN MORE]( Occasionally, you’ll see a thinly-traded microcap double overnight due to unexpected news. Or maybe a stock will rocket higher following a buyout. But to see NVDA — which was already a top ten stock by market-cap — soar nearly 30% after hours following a guidance raise is total insanity. The exuberance continued through the week — and NVDA didn't even give back a penny. [chart] NVDA has now gained more than 160% year-to-date and is closing in on a $1 trillion market-cap, jumping Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to become the fifth-largest publicly traded company in the US. A Catalyzing Moment The morning after NVDA launched into the stratosphere, I explained to [The Trading Desk]( members that the effect this has on the market can't be understated. Every bubble needs a catalyzing moment. NVDA blowing out earnings and propelling the Nasdaq Composite to new nine-month highs could very well become that moment for AI. We won’t know until we have the benefit of hindsight. But the strong participation from the mega-caps — combined with the speculative action down the cap scale — could be the fuel this fire needs to continue burning through the summer months. To be clear: I’m not suggesting you have to pull up your brokerage account and buy as many NVDA shares as possible this very second. If this bubble is indeed in the early stages, you’ll have ample opportunities to ride the wave. But in order to profit from these emerging trends, you need to know roughly where we are in these market cycles, as well as how similar scenarios have typically played out in the past. [Send Me Your Mailing Address!]( [Click here to learn more]( The biggest gold bull market in history has just begun. That’s why New York Times best-selling author Jim Rickards has arranged to send his must-read book on gold to any U.S. citizen with a valid mailing address today. [Click here now to see how to claim your copy of The New Case For Gold](. [LEARN MORE]( Narrative Shift The NVDA post-earnings rally could have solidified a powerful narrative shift for the AI movement. It’s hard to believe, but NVDA was not a stock anyone wanted to own last year. In fact, NVDA lost almost 70% of its value from its apex in late 2021 until it bottomed out in early Q4 2022. Crypto mining had tanked, demand for the company’s higher priced units was soft, and (most importantly) no one wanted anything to do with tech stocks. In a vacuum, nothing is fundamentally different with the company. And the stock is expensive by almost any metric we can concoct. Instead, investors' perceptions of NVDA and its potential are the main forces at work here. Markets are forward looking — you probably hear that all the time! But it’s important to remember that this is especially true when it comes to those magical bubble themes that manage to capture everyone’s imagination every few years… The big question now is staying power. Artificial intelligence hype felt like it came out of nowhere just a few months ago. Will it disappear just as quickly as it emerged? Or, will it continue to snowball into and convert more market participants into true believers over the next several quarters and beyond? These are the questions the market will have to answer. In the meantime, we can stay active in the AI space by watching for a rotation into the smaller names when NVDA begins to consolidate its earnings bump. I suspect traders will be itching to dive into the next hot AI stock as soon as NVDA slows down, fueling a rotation into other names in the space. We should also watch to see how NVDA and some of the other big-name players in the space digest their respective gains. Sideways corrections — rather than sharp pullbacks — would indicate the underlying trend remains strong. If that’s the case, buying bounces off support will be a great way to get involved without chasing any of the big gaps higher. What do you think? Is the AI zeitgeist here to stay? Or is it destined to crash and burn? Let me know by emailing me [here](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com). Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Sean Ring] [Sean Ring, CAIA, FRM and CMT]( is a former banker and financial educator and is the editor of the Rude Awakening. Sean has trained interns and graduates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Standard Chartered Bank, DBS (Singapore), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Bank Indonesia (the central bank), HSBC, Barclays, RBS, and BlackRock. He knows the global economy is being corrupted by forces that most people can't understand and has used his unique and worldly experiences to help people navigate the markets. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. 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