April 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report

The USD held its ground; stocks, precious metals, and Bitcoin were up. [The Rude Awakening] May 02, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( April 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report - The USD was only slightly down this month at 0.38%. - The SPX and Nazzie rose; Russell may be signaling trouble. - Ether led the way in crypto, with Bitcoin close behind it. [Secret Gold Back currency RUINING Biden’s plans for a digital dollar?]( [Click here to learn more]( What I’m holding in my hand is a completely new form of money… As we speak, it's being used as an alternative currency across the U.S. minting in places like Utah, New Hampshire and Nevada… And since it’s made out of a thinly printed sheet of REAL gold... It may be the single best way to protect your wealth from Biden’s plan for a government controlled digital dollar. That’s why, I want to offer to send one to you today. But since I have a limited number I need you to respond to [this message]( by Wednesday at midnight. [I’ve recorded a short 2 minute message that explains everything here.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Tuesday from the nonstop partying Northern Italy! Sorry that I’m a day late. I got so into the vanadium idea two nights ago, I just woke up yesterday and started typing. It wasn’t… until I noticed the “Mon May 1 11:50” on my Mac that I realized I was supposed to write this report. Well, this report is exactly as it would have been had it been sent yesterday. Except, we’re closer to the FOMC meeting, where I’m sure they’ll raise rates. The market thinks this is the final rate hike, and the Fed will start cutting soon. I think this isn’t the last rate hike, and Powell won’t even think of cutting until January 2024. Many people ignore the Fed dot plot, but I don’t. [SJN1] Credit: [CME FedWatch Tool]( And this plot tells us Fed Fund futures are overpriced. That is, the Fed will keep hiking. Jerome Powell has given us no indication otherwise. So, enjoy the charts. Remember, if the Fed does something unexpected, all bets are off. And if you want something more robust, my friend and colleague Zach Scheidt, Jim Rickards’ “Mystery Banker,” has developed [a tight system]( using three signals to enter and exit market positions. This system has three fantastic advantages: - It uses macro, fundamental, and momentum signals to get into trades. No other system uses different market aspects to enter and exit trades. - Using simple option positions, you use less capital than buying stocks outright. This immediately reduces the amount of initial capital you need to start trading. Compared with buying big stock positions, this is a great way to dip your toes in without getting wet. - You can make money going both long and short. Only hedge fund managers make money this way… until now. Zach shows you how to profit in both up and down. That means you never have to sit on the sidelines. It’s a peach of a system, and [I hope you’ll]( it. It’s entirely up to you, though. [Head here]( to see what all the fuss is about. Now, let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 [SJN2] Looking at the chart, I’d say 4,300 was the next stop. But since the FOMC is meeting tomorrow, and I’m positive Jay Powell and Co. raise rates, I’ll instead say we’ll remain sideways for a bit more. It’s not so much the rate hike that matters today. What Powell says about any future hikes is what matters. Nasdaq Composite [SJN3] I thought we’d rally harder than we have in the Nazzie. If you’re bullish, this consolidation will resolve itself to the upside. The first level is 13,250, and then 14,500. If you’re worried about the Fed, this may look like a resistance level to you, and we head back down to 11,000. The balance of probabilities favors the former scenario, but it is “Sell in May and go away” time. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [SJN4] After last month’s hammering, the Russell has held up well. But it may be the canary in the coal mine. If the Russell falls farther, it may portend a larger market sell-off. (The smaller stocks lead the bigger stocks that way.) Support remains at 162.50. The US 10-Year Yield [SJN5] We’re off only four bps (0.04%) since our last asset class report. My comment from last month remains: This is because the market thinks the Fed is done hiking and will cut soon. I don’t think the Fed is done hiking, nor do I think it’ll cut soon after. There will be a decent interval between the end of the hikes and the beginning of the cuts. So I think we’re going up from here, though the entire market disagrees with me. Dollar Index [SJN6] We’ve come off again as rate expectations have fallen, weakening the spot dollar price. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us staying in the 101-105 range for the next few months. That’s because the market has to get to grips with what Chairman Pow is trying to do with his monetary policy. But… and it’s a big “but”... the longer the USD stays at 101 and above, the stronger this support level gets. And it may just be a lifting point for a higher USD. If that happens, stocks will fall hard. USG Bonds [SJN7] We’ve been rangebound for months now. If rates head higher, TLT will head back down to 90. If rates stay where they are, we’ll have a slight upside bias to 115.00. Investment Grade Bonds [SJN8] Same story here. LQD didn’t move this month. Higher rates mean heading to 97. Flat to lower rates send LQD to 111 and then 116. High Yield Bonds [SJN9] After that big rally last month, we haven’t moved. We got to get comfortably above 76 before we can get bullish. If rates continue increasing, HYG heads to 72 and then 69. [Biden’s WAR on The Middle Class…]( No president has sabotaged America’s hardest workers like Joe Biden has. That’s why I’m urging you to [watch this urgent presentation](. Because Jim Rickards’ legendary financial contact – who he calls ‘The Banker’ – may be the only man who can solve this American Income Crisis. [Click HERE to learn how 'The Banker' made]( in 4 days… $10,617 in 6 days… and $13,203 in 2 days](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Real Estate [SJN10] Again, no movement. We finished last month at 83.04 and this month at 83.30. I expect rangebound moves for the next few months. Base Metals: Copper [SJN11] Down about 20 cents this month, copper’s consolidation zone is starting to sag. Still, it’s too early to call. A break below here, and we’ll head down to 3.60 or so. Precious Metals: Gold [SJN12] We finally broke above $2,000… and then came right back down. I’m still bullish on gold and reckon it’ll hit $3,000 from here. But before then, expect lots of movement around this $2,000 mark. It takes some time to break away psychologically. Precious Metals: Silver [SJN13] On silver, you have my permission to be bullish. We’re (only slightly) above $25, but I think we’ll build a base from here. $26.50 is the next level, followed by $28.00. Cryptos: Bitcoin [SJN14] We hit $30,000 already, though we’re down from there. BTC can coil and rally again, all the way to $42,000. Let’s see… Cryptos: Ether [SJN15] From last month: A good chart, but not as good as Bitcoin’s. I want to see a sustained move above $2,000 before I get excited about ETH. So, so close. It got above $2,000, then headed swiftly back down. Above here, and we head to $2,600. Trad Asset Class Summary [SJN16] All things rely on the USD. As it was slightly down again, the SPX rallied. Commodities followed the dollar down again, indicating the economy is slowing down hard. Bonds were flat on the month. Crypto Class Summary [SJN17] A somewhat subdued month in the typically volatile crypto space. Ether and Bitcoin were up around 4% each. Elon’s favorite, Dogecoin, was up a smidge. Monero, Litecoin, and Ripple all suffered losses. Wrap Up Silver and gold, silver and gold. Perhaps the new Christmas song will be, “Silver and gold, Ether and Bitcoin…” Let’s see what Powell does tomorrow. Expect fireworks when he raises rates… and then doesn’t say if it’s the final rate hike. That’ll be fun! Finally, let’s take a moment to enjoy this meme, courtesy of the Twitterverse: [SJN18] Have a great day! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening P.S. Remember to check out [Zach Scheidt’s new system](. I’ll remind you of its amazing benefits: - It uses macro, fundamental, and momentum signals to get into trades. No other system available to ordinary folk uses different market aspects to enter and exit trades. - Using simple option positions, you use less capital than buying stocks outright. This immediately reduces the amount of initial capital you need to start trading. Compared with buying big stock positions, this is a great way to dip your toes in without getting wet. - You can make money going both long and short. Only hedge fund managers made money this way… until now. A former hedgie himself, Zach shows you how to profit in both up and down markets. That means you never have to sit on the sidelines. [Head over to this page]( to watch the video and gather more information if you need to. Then, make a decision. It’s in your hands. [Good luck!]( In Case You Missed It… The Most Important Metal You’ve Never Heard Of and Why It Matters. [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning from an overcast Asti! This week is another one on the Astigiani (AH-stee-johnny) calendar, where almost everyone has the first few days off. It’s the festival of our patron saint, San Secondo (Secundus in Latin). He was an Asti patrician and a subaltern officer in the imperial army who was beheaded at Asti under Emperor Hadrian. The modern church is in Piazza San Secondo, where Micah plays with his friends on Friday nights. [SJN] Piazza San Secondo and its church. Credit: Sean Ring We’ll join the festivities later today. In the meantime, I watched an interesting video this weekend from Real Vision titled “[Getting In Early to Metals and Miners]( Disclosure: I’m long [GDXJ]( right now in my retirement portfolio. That’s the Junior Miners’ ETF. But the chatter on gold isn’t what caught my ear. It was the chatter about another metal barely anyone had heard of. What’s Vanadium? One day, I remember taking out my toolset to fix something in the apartment. As I grabbed my screwdriver, the lettering on the shaft was glinting in my eye. I turned the screwdriver gently to read the inscription. I thought it was going to be the manufacturer. [SJN] Credit: Sean Ring Instead, it read, “CHROME VANADIUM.” I thought to myself, “What the heck is chrome vanadium?” Quickly, chrome vanadium is an alloy made of chrome and vanadium. Not too hard, that one! But what’s vanadium? And why didn’t my science teachers ever mention it? Vanadium is a chemical element that’s a hard, silvery-grey, ductile, and malleable transition metal. Without getting too into the weeds, transition metals are generally known for their high melting and boiling points and ability to form complex ions and compounds with other elements. They’re also typically good conductors of heat and electricity, and many exhibit magnetic properties. Some examples of transition metals include iron, copper, nickel, titanium, vanadium, zinc, and gold. These elements have a wide range of applications in industry, technology, and everyday life, including in the manufacture of alloys, electronics, and batteries, as well as in the production of various chemicals and materials. That is, they’re essential. On its own, vanadium is found in many minerals, including vanadinite, patronite, and carnotite. It’s usually produced as a byproduct of other mining operations. Vanadium has several important industrial uses. [[CHART] Could Inflation Hit 20%+ In 2023?]( [Click here to learn more]( Take a close look at this scary chart pictured here… What you see is the money supply in America… And as you can see, the number of dollars in circulation has exploded in the last few years. In fact, more than 80% of all dollars to ever exist have been printed since just 2020 alone! Which is why some say inflation could soon explode even higher than it is now, to 20% or more. And if you’re at or near retirement age you must take action now to protect yourself… otherwise you risk losing everything. [Simply click here now to see how to survive America’s deadly inflation crisis](. [Click Here To Learn More]( What Are Vanadium’s Top Five Uses? Vanadium possesses incredible usefulness in a wide range of industries. Its top five uses are (bolds mine): - Steel production: The most significant use of vanadium is as an alloying element in steel. When added to steel, vanadium improves its strength, toughness, and heat resistance. - Superalloys: Vanadium produces high-performance alloys called superalloys, used in the aerospace industry and other high-tech applications that require materials that can withstand extreme temperatures and stresses. - Chemical catalysts: Vanadium is used as a catalyst in the production of several chemicals, including sulfuric acid and maleic anhydride. - Energy storage: Vanadium redox batteries are rechargeable flow batteries that use vanadium ions in different oxidation states to store energy. These batteries have the potential to store large amounts of energy and could be used for grid-scale energy storage or in electric vehicles. - Medical applications: Vanadium has been investigated for potential medicinal uses, including treating diabetes and cancer. Some studies have shown that vanadium compounds can help regulate blood sugar levels and inhibit the growth of cancer cells. However, more research is needed to fully understand the potential benefits and risks of using vanadium in medicine. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the United States doesn’t have enough of the stuff. Guess who does? What Are the Top Vanadium-Producing Countries? Just America’s luck… The top vanadium-producing countries in the world are: - China: China is the largest vanadium producer, accounting for over 60% of global production. Most vanadium in China is produced as a byproduct of steel production. - Russia: Russia is the second-largest vanadium producer, accounting for around 16% of global production. The country produces vanadium from several mines, including the Kachkanar mine in the Ural Mountains. - South Africa: South Africa is the third, accounting for around 13% of global production. The country produces vanadium from the Bushveld Complex, a large igneous rock formation. - Brazil: Brazil is the fourth, accounting for around 5% of global production. The country produces vanadium from the Maracás Menchen Mine, located in Bahia. - India: India is the fifth, accounting for around 2% of global production. The country produces vanadium from several mines, including the Rampura Agucha Mine in Rajasthan. What a coincidence… If you rearrange the first initials of those countries, you get BRICS! You know, those guys who are frantically trying to de-dollarize. And who are the top five countries America imports vanadium from? [According to the US Geological Survey]( Canada accounts for 26% of vanadium imports. The next four are, unsurprisingly, China (14%), Brazil (10%), and South Africa (9%). As for substituting vanadium, the [USGS]( says the aerospace industry is out of luck: Steels containing various combinations of other alloying elements can be substituted for steels containing vanadium. Certain metals, such as manganese, molybdenum, niobium (columbium), titanium, and tungsten, are to some degree interchangeable with vanadium as alloying elements in steel. Platinum and nickel can replace vanadium compounds as catalysts in some chemical processes. Currently, no acceptable substitute for vanadium is available for use in aerospace titanium alloys. But what about everyday folk? An Everyday Use of Vanadium. Let’s get back to my chrome vanadium alloy screwdriver. Apparently, it rivals Leonard Read’s pencil in “[I, Pencil]( As we mentioned, chrome vanadium is a type of steel alloy that contains both chromium and vanadium. It’s made through steelmaking, which involves melting iron and other metals in a furnace and adding various alloys and elements to create a specific type of steel with the maker’s desired properties. Chrome vanadium steel is known for its strength and durability. It’s known as high-strength, low-alloy (HSLA) steel. That steel has a combination of toughness, hardness, and wear resistance. Chrome vanadium steel is commonly used in manufacturing tools, such as wrenches, sockets, and other hand tools, and in automotive and industrial applications requiring high strength and durability. It’s also used to construct high-performance engine parts and suspension components in racing and performance vehicles. In addition to its strength and durability, chrome vanadium steel is also known for its resistance to corrosion and oxidation. That makes it suitable for use in harsh environments where other types of steel may be prone to rust and degradation over time. Wrap Up If you’ve read The Rude for a while, you know I was against the Russia sanctions from Day 1. And I’ve been proven correct repeatedly over this past year and a bit. The only people who are paying for this mess are Americans and Europeans. So what should you do? As America and Europe won’t import vanadium from Russia, that will put overwhelming upwards pressure on vanadium’s price. I will look for companies that produce vanadium and, hopefully, get in cheaply. I suggest you do the same. Since The Rude is a big picture daily, I don’t write about single stock picks. However, some opportunities may lie with Bushveld Minerals (a South African company whose stock trades in London), Largo Resources (Canada), and Vanadium Corporation (Canada). These are not recommendations, only potential opportunities. I don’t plan to buy any of these companies over the next 48 hours, at least. Have a great week ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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