Can America Even Take On China?

Thanks to a withering dollar, military, and soft power, the US hasn’t been weaker in centuries. [The Rude Awakening] March 30, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Can America Even Take On China? - If China invaded Taiwan tomorrow, could America do anything about it? - Only 13 nations have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. - The Tik-Tok bill is the Patriot Act in disguise. External Advertisement “The must-watch documentary of the year for investors.” Man Who Predicted 2008 Crash Warns of Shocking Event in 2023 A strange event (that no one has warned you of) is about to disrupt the foundations of the U.S. political, economic, and financial system… and could cause devastating losses for unprepared investors [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Thursday! I’m looking forward to the weekend, myself. But before we start with sherry and giggles, let’s finish the week strongly. Today, I’m going to ask more questions than give answers. Because there’s so much going on right now, I’m unsure how all the moving parts fit together. Before I get into it, let me acknowledge the Doom Porn Demographers like Peter Zeihan, who think China will fall into an abyss and not be America’s problem anymore. The problem with this thesis is that most of the world’s advanced economies are losing population quickly, not just China. Besides China, western Europe, Japan, and the rest of developed Southeast Asia are also falling quickly. So net-net, China’s population issues aren’t going to give the West an easy win. Three big things happening right now preclude the possibility of the West knocking China out. The De-Dollarization of Asia [Two days ago]( I listed many de-dollarization examples in the Rude. The funny thing is we knew this was going to happen. But we thought it’d happen over 10-20 years or more. But because of those asinine Russia sanctions, the process has been sped up beyond anything I could’ve imagined. Remember, the rest of the world is still trading with Russia. But Russia can’t accept dollars, thanks to Brainy Biden. So those countries are also dumping dollars to be able to trade with Russia, which has all sorts of natural resources everyone needs. This is what got [Fareed Zakaria]( sitting up, and [Fox News]( scared. Now ask yourself: if the US can’t print up dollars at will because the demand isn’t there, how will it finance a massive military build-up? With that in mind, I’m not sure we’ll even get to war over Taiwan. Taiwan The finances of war depend on American credit. That’s why America could enter and dominate the World Wars. But even with that in mind… …I’ve never understood how the US will maintain a 7,000-mile supply line against an enemy who only has to go 100 miles over a strait. America’s famous lack of cartography skills hit them in the goolies here. China can launch an attack from its mainland and bury Taiwan. It’d be like America launching a full frontal assault on Cuba. If they wanted to, it’d be over in the blink of an eye. For the Pacific Fleet and its obsolete aircraft carriers, I think it’s a lost cause. And that’s before any shots are fired. Taiwan and the Mainland will probably cut a deal in the next few years to reunite peacefully, all on their own. And there’s nothing Washington can do about it. [America’s #1 Gold Expert Makes Shocking Prediction]( Is This The Start Of The Biggest Gold Bull Market In History? [Click Here Now For The Details](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Tik-Tok Bill Let’s get one thing straight: the US version of Tik Tok is a cesspool of an app into which all the dregs of society circle and, eventually, drain. The Chinese version of Tik Tok posts far more educational content. It’s awful, and it’s nowhere near the Ring household. But just because I think something is awful doesn’t mean it should be banned. With Tik Tok beating the pants off native US apps, the USG feels the need to get involved. And with this, Senator Mark Warner introduced the RESTRICT Act of 2023, essentially the Patriot Act in disguise. Here’s a brief [explanation]( of it: The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act of 2023 (RESTRICT) Act is a proposed bill in the United States Congress. It grants the Secretary of Commerce the authority to "identify, deter, disrupt, prevent, prohibit, investigate, or otherwise mitigate" risks to national security posed by the business transactions of entities who offer "information and communications technologies products or services" (ICTS) in the United States. The Act applies to ICTS entities that are held in whole or in part by, or otherwise fall under the jurisdiction of a country or government that is designated under the Act as a "foreign adversary" of the United States, and has more than one million active users or units sold in the United States. The initial text of the Act classifies China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Cuba, Iran, Russia, and the Nicolás Maduro regime of Venezuela as foreign adversaries. It would be unlawful for any person to violate any order or mitigation measure issued under the RESTRICT Act, with civil penalties of up to $250,000 or "twice the value of the transaction that is the basis of the violation with respect to which the penalty is imposed," whichever is greater. You can [read the whole bill here](. The upshot is that while pretending to protect Americans from Tik Tok, it puts unprecedented power over internet communications into government hands. The bill is purposely ambiguous. For instance, it’s unclear if VPNs would be banned. VPN stands for Virtual Private Network, a technology that allows you to create a secure and private connection between your device and the internet. A VPN works by routing your internet traffic through an encrypted tunnel, which hides your IP address and protects your online activity from prying eyes. So it’s unclear if you’d be prosecuted for using a VPN to access a government-banned website. Senator Rand Paul opposes the Act, so the Act is undoubtedly awful. [The Mises Caucus]( tweeted: The RESTRICT Act is not limited to just TikTok. It gives the government authority over all forms of communication domestic or abroad and grants powers to “enforce any mitigation measure to address any risk” to national security now and in any “potential future transaction” [SJN] Credit: [@EndWokeness]( [SJN] Credit: [@YALiberty]( It’s incredible how many people oppose bills once they read them, Nancy. Wrap Up America has a lot of catching up to do. It needs to slow de-dollarization before losing the “exorbitant privilege” of printing dollars for free. It needs to rethink its Taiwan strategy in the face of a resurgent and much closer China. And it needs to rethink bans on apps that would surely die on their own. Until tomorrow! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening In Case You Missed It… Who’s the Fool at the Poker Table? [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Hump Day! It’s glorious here in Northern Italy. While drinking my morning cappuccino, I read Jim Rickards’s piece in yesterday’s [Daily Reckoning](. It echoes a theme he wrote about in February 2022. I remember it vividly because I piggybacked that article for the Rude. Since he’s writing about the same theme in a timely way, I will piggyback him again. The theme is this: how on earth did the United States wind up in this pickle? So Who’s the Fool in This Deadly Game? Jim brought up a great metaphor, encapsulating the situation from first principles. Warren Buffett is famed for saying it succinctly, so here it is: [SJN] From [Jim’s piece]( Here’s the easiest way to understand what’s happening using a poker game as a metaphor: The U.S., China, and Russia are the only superpowers in the world. There are many other important powers, and I’m not suggesting that they don’t count, but only the U.S., China, and Russia qualify as superpowers. Now imagine a three-handed poker game that involves those three. There’s an old saying in poker: If you’re at the table and you don’t know who the sucker is… you’re the sucker. In any three-sided contest, it makes sense for two of the parties to work together to crush the third. Once the third player is wiped out (loses all his chips), the two survivors can turn on each other. That’s just power dynamics. The U.S. understood this dynamic implicitly since the end of World War II. The EU? Nope. The UK? Not even close. Nor is India. Just three players, though they matter in their own ways. Russia-Ukraine War Update From [Jim’s piece]( yesterday: Over 200,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers speak as if from the grave about how badly Ukraine is losing. They’ve lost much of their best personnel and are sending fresh troops to the front lines with only rudimentary training. Many of them don’t last more than a couple of days. On the other hand, Russia is in the process of mobilizing 400,000 new troops. That’s in addition to perhaps 400,000 now in Ukraine, and 300,000 or more in reserve. Ukraine is also low on ammunition, while Russia has dramatically been increasing ammo production. Russia also maintains sizable leads in every major category of equipment from aircraft, to tanks, to artillery. Not what you hear in the US mainstream media, is it? It’s a different story on the ground. [Warning: Will “Bidenflation” Destroy Your Retirement?]( If you’re like most Americans, you’ve worked hard for decades to build your financial legacy. And now, as a result of Biden’s disastrous money printing policies, that’s all at risk. According to one top retirement expert, “Bidenflation” threatens to destroy your retirement and make your hard-earned savings worthless. That’s why you must take action right away to protect yourself… [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive “Bidenflation.”]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Ending One Communist Regime and Empowering Another I’ve written before about how Henry Kissinger gave away the game to the Chinese. In his remarkable book The Hundred Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury details how Henry Kissinger gave away America’s technological advantage to China in exchange for China not siding with the Soviets. And while I don’t think what Kissinger did was worth it, I’ve got to admit the immediate goal was accomplished. Only 20 years or so after Nixon went to China, the Soviet Union collapsed. That’s because America and China made the Soviet Union the patsy at the table. Of course, the Soviets knew what was happening and tried to get America to stop it, but their efforts were fruitless. And while that outcome looked good on the surface for 30 years, now we’ve got Russia and China turning the tables on America. America’s position isn’t looking so good right now. So Jim’s point is that American policy overall is incorrect and misguided. Back in the 1990s The oligarchs took over the companies when Russia tried to start with capitalism. “It’s a good place to end, but not a good place to start.” The State Department minions who now have senior positions have never forgiven Putin for disrupting their terraforming plans. Let’s get one thing straight: Vladimir Putin is not a nice man. He’s not someone I’d want to go into business with. He’s an ex-spy chief who plays for keeps. But just because we don’t like someone, doesn’t mean we don’t have to deal with them. And since those diplomats failed in the 90s, Putin has accomplished some things for Russia. With the oligarchs, he gave them an ultimatum: keep the money, but stay out of politics. Putin built bridges to the Orthodox church. He’s also made Russia less dependent on, and almost entirely independent of, the USD system, which nullified the sanctions. Russia is by no means perfect. It’s still kleptocratic, and its judiciary isn’t strong enough. But it’s functional, something it wasn’t when the Soviet Union fell. Not History, But Security In America, students stopped learning history and geography in high school. There’s a flat plain between Moscow and the rest of Europe. [pub] From Northern France, you can march straight to Russia without encountering a hill. It’s like Kansas. Ukraine is smack in the east end of it. And it’s not like we don’t have historical examples of Russia’s enemies trying it on. Napoleon got there and froze to death, losing 90% of his troops. Hitler did the same. He couldn’t hold his supply lines. Millions of lives were lost. The only thing that saved Russia was the harsh winter. So, in Russia’s mind, it must create buffer zones. Russia lost the Baltics to NATO. Russia thinks it can’t afford to lose Ukraine. Now, does that mean Ukraine should be under Russian rule? Of course not. Just like I don’t think Canada should be under American rule. Or vice versa. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have to deal with the situation. We’re the Sucker! [Jim concludes]( The rise of Putin after 1999 enraged both neoconservatives and progressives in the U.S. who wanted Russia to be a Western puppet. Putin was a nationalist and pro-religious figure who returned Russia to a more traditional conservative state. Then Russia became a left-wing punching bag because it was a convenient way to rationalize Hillary Clinton’s dismal campaign (2016) and to tar Donald Trump. Finally, the Russo-Ukraine War, provoked by the U.S. after 2014, became an excuse to exclude Russia from the international system entirely. At the same time, the potential for huge profits in China was irresistible for U.S. businesses despite China’s atrocious record on human rights. In time, the U.S. was disabused of the notion that China would be “just like us” given enough time. China turned out to be a vicious Communist dictatorship and an even worse enemy than the former Soviet Union. Where are we now? China and Russia are close allies, and the U.S. is the odd man out. We’re the sucker. This shows that the people in charge in DC don’t know what they’re doing. The situation never should’ve come to this. We leave goat herders in Afghanistan $85 billion in equipment when we cut and run from them. Why Americans think a war would be different against Russia and China is beyond me. Wrap Up Like Jim says, “We’re the sucker.” And it never should’ve gotten to this point. America, in large part due to the current administration, has lost so much soft power. And that doesn’t begin to explain its hard power decline. The USG needs to step back and see the situation for what it is. If not, there’s a greater chance of a misstep later. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [The Daily FWD] URGENT! FREE Report: 6 Ways to Beat a Financial Disaster Another financial crisis could be just DAYS away! That’s why world-renowned macroeconomist Jim Rickards released this brand-new FREE report revealing the 6 most important things you NEED to do right now to protect yourself. Simply click below to sign up for the elite new research letter The Daily FWD – which will give you honest, unfiltered news on EVERY important issue impacting your wealth and security… The moment you do, we’ll rush you this exclusive new report straight to your inbox. [Click here to sign up to The Daily FWD – 100% FREE.]( By clicking the link above you agree to receive email updates and special offers from The Daily FWD. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt out at any time. [Privacy Policy](. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Rude Awakening subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Rude Awakening.](