Happy Rude Year!

My third year writing the Rude has just concluded. April 26, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Happy Rude Year! SEAN RING Greetings from stunning Copenhagen, Denmark. Pam and her sister, Meg, wanted to see Michael Learned to Rock, a Danish band from the 80s and 90s, perform in their native country. They play tonight at the local venue. Since Meg lives with her husband Kenneth in Belgium, and we live in Italy, it’s easy to make these trips happen with a bit of planning. Of course, Kenneth and I hadn’t even heard of this band, so we’re here with Micah, taking in the sights and eating superb Danish cuisine. It’s times like these I’m so grateful to have this job. But it isn’t a job; it’s more of a good habit I complete every morning. If only I could exercise as regularly! With this “habit,” I can work in the morning and then spend the afternoon walking around one of the most pristine cities on Gaia’s green earth. All I can say is, “Thank you.” Thank you for spending eight or nine minutes with me every morning, for putting up with my exasperated rants on the West’s downfall, and for trying to see things just a bit differently than everyone around you. I can’t overstate the importance of this particular point. That you do this really matters. On To Year Four This week marks the third year of me writing the Rude; quite frankly, it’s the greatest job in the world. I’d love to tell you I’ve planned what’s coming this year. But honestly, the world is so topsy-turvy that I don’t know what’s coming. As it stands, I pretty much wake up every morning and try to figure out what to write. Occasionally, I get a day or two ahead of schedule with some special inspiration, usually sponsored by Potatohead Biden and his muddleheaded minions. So instead of re-evaluating what I write and going from there, I thought I’d ask you about the Rude’s format. But before I do that, let me make a point about geopolitics as a subject. You have [(1) item]( on hold at our warehouse: Item #: [51987]( Status: On hold Value: Approx. $300 Claim by date: 04/29 at 11:59 PM To see how to claim yours simply [click here]( our Head of Customer Experience will show you what you need to do. [Click Here To Learn More]( Geopolitics as a Necessary Evil Yesterday, you may have chuckled at Nemo, who called my Suez Crisis comparison of the US and its current position “[The Dumbest Thing I’ve Ever Read on the Internet]( I cracked up myself. But he concluded, “Stick to financing, money, and stock suggestions, and keep your stupid, uninformed, ill-educated rants about politics out of our faces, please, and thank you!” Sorry, no dice. And that’s because geopolitics shapes our investable universe. Let me give you some hard facts. [This paper from the CFA Institute]( demonstrates it’s impossible to ignore geopolitical risk: - Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) constructed a dedicated Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index by looking for words associated with wars, civil wars, and terrorism in 11 newspapers in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom since 1985. For historical purposes, they went back to the year 1900 with the help of three newspaper archives. - Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) found that moderate increases in geopolitical risks tend to have a negligible impact, but for a two-standard deviation spike in the GPR index, they noted that company fixed investments declined by 1.8% over the subsequent 12 months. To put this into perspective, such a two standard-deviation event corresponds to a spike in the GPR index of 82 points and is roughly what happened when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and after the 2005 London bombings. - In addition to the decline in company fixed investments, Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) found a temporary setback in consumer confidence and a 0.4% decline in employment in the 12 months following a two-standard deviation spike in the GPR index. And finally: - Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) investigated the immediate impact of an increase in the GPR index on stock markets around the globe and found that in the month after a 100-point spike, stock markets typically declined by 1% to 3%. In short, I'm negligent if I don’t write about geopolitics. It’s that simple. Central banks, governments, and, yes, geopolitics are far too intertwined in our markets not to write about them. Enough about that now… back to the ask. Freeform Your Response, Please Questionnaires are littered with the biases of those asking them. So, instead of filling in one, I’ll ask you to write to feedback@rudeawakening.info after you’ve defeated the tyranny of the blank page. Just freeform what you’d like the Rude to look like every morning. I can’t guarantee it’ll happen, but you may give rise to a great idea that will happen. Would you like more cheap stock opportunities, like Jim T? More sarcasm? More politics? I’ll only ask you to remember that I have only four hours in the morning to write the Rude before we go to press. I write five Rudes and one Morning Reckoning each week, except when the esteemed Byron King gives me a break; bless his cotton socks! So, in-depth exposés are impossible, I’m sorry to say. But anything else, just ask… Wrap Up Once again, thank you for reading and subscribing. It’s a thrill to see you each day. Now, I must take a walk to the Little Mermaid statue, where the family awaits my arrival. Have a wonderful weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… “The Dumbest Thing I’ve Ever Read on the Internet” SEAN RING When I look into the mailbag, I don’t just seek validation and agreement. Though I must admit, they make me feel good. But when someone writes a Rude piece he read is “the dumbest thing I’ve ever read on the Internet,” I’m beyond curious. So let’s get right on it. No, It’s Not Suez! Dear Sean, Your screed about the Houthies and the US is about the dumbest thing I’ve ever read on the Internet. You certainly do not know what the hell you’re talking about and are taking up space in my brain when I need to be working and investing money. Stick to financing, money, and stock suggestions, and keep your stupid, uninformed, ill-educated rants about politics out of our faces, please, and thank you! Whoever you are, you forgot to sign your name. So I’ll refer to you as Nemo. Nemo, I’m all ears. The last thing I want anyone to think is that I ruined their morning cup of coffee. Just thinking about it fills me with dread. My goal every day is to make you and every other reader just one fact smarter and one story happier than you were the day before. That’s it. We call it “The Rule of One” here at Paradigm. We only write about one subject each time. I chose that subject because chokepoints really, really matter in our brave new world. I assume you’re talking about the April 5th article titled “[A Watery Grave]( where I assert the US is having a “Suez Moment” like the Brits and French had in 1956. I start the piece with a history of the Suez Crisis, complete with names and dates. I then go to the current situation, where I quote U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking saying, "We favor a diplomatic solution. We know that there is no military solution," and then link to the briefing where he actually says it. I then show that failure after failure by Joke Biden, especially after the muffed Afghanistan pullout, has wrecked the US’s reputation. Finally, I assert no one is afraid of the US or Israel anymore and that Biden was stupid to release the $6 billion to the Iranians (who are funding the Houthis) without guarantees. Nemo, I’m totally ok if you don’t think this is the US’s “Suez Crisis.” I looked up “Suez Crisis” on X and found that most point to Ukraine as being the US’s Suez Crisis. But as we’re twenty days on from my article, let me ask you this: - Is the Suez Canal open? - Are the Houthis still holding world trade hostage? - Have Egypt’s finances recovered? - Is the US closer to solving the problem? No. No. No. And… No. I leave you with this. My good friend and Managing Editor of Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets, Dave Gonigam, sent me this yesterday, completely unbidden: Credit: [@LukeGromen]( Iran Hello Sean, In your column, you say that sanctions will not work on Russia. Your charts obviously indicate that sanctions will not work because Russia has so many options in which they can engage in trade. Do you think increased sanctions will work on Iran? Iran can still trade directly with Russia & China The USA cannot block that if the trading partners simply ignore the USA. Joke Biden just applied more sanctions to Iran but "the joke is on us" since the Biden Regime overlooked Iranian oil. Jeff R. Hi Jeff! Thanks for writing. No, I don’t think sanctions work on Iran. Bloomberg explains that in excellent practical terms [here](. But if you look at Jim Rickards’ framework, you need three conditions satisfied for sanctions to work. They are: - The target country must have a small- or medium-sized economy with little robustness or resiliency to sanctions. - The target country must have limited access to alternative payment channels and few allies in any effort to obtain hard currency. - The target country must have limited hard currency reserves or gold with which to evade or wait out sanctions. Iran’s economic resilience has shocked Western observers. Of course, having besties like China and Russia helps. Thanks to Russia and China, Iran has access to alternative payment channels. And evidence suggests that Iran has the reserves to weather quite a storm, especially with all the oil they sell as Biden turns a blind eye. [I traveled over 1,000 miles to show you this strange device…”]( He traveled 1,000 miles away from home… To show you this strange device on a farm in rural Virginia. You won’t know by looking at it, but a secret company behind this strange device could hold the potential to make you rich over the coming years. [Click here to find out how.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Origin Story From Kentucky, good morning Sean! I enjoyed your story so much that I had to write and tell you personally. I’m the son of immigrant parents from Vienna, Austria, and have also done a lot of traveling - but for different reasons… I enjoy your perspective and your writing style and wanted to say thank you, keep up the good work! Take your family out for some ice cream - I know it’s phenomenal there!! Thanks again and have a great weekend! Edwin P. Thank you for the kind words, Edwin! Much appreciated. Pam and I were just talking about getting back to Vienna. We had a fabulous time there at the Christmas markets in 2019. As for the ice cream, it’s incredible… but oh my blood sugar! Nowhere to Run Sean, Good story today. We know that our politicians and Federal agencies are all not doing their jobs and I’m glad that you keep pointing that out. What interests me today though, is it not the same BS wherever you are, in your case Italy and the EU. Is there any place that one can hide from all of this nonsense? James T. It’s a great question, James. My philosophy remains the same: get to a country you love that has a great tax deal. Society, as we know it, is unsavable, so it’s all about you and your family getting the best deal you can. My family and I have a great deal here and we’ve made loads of friends (luckily). The government becomes less of a nuisance when you have more cash at your disposal and a great network to rely on. One For Byron I read the article on the truckers' protest and found it to be remarkably accurate. Canada is a federation of provinces with a national government with certain restricted powers and provinces with lawmaking powers over the areas they encompass. Increasingly over the past decades, the federal government has been trying to increase its influence to ensure power and capital flow to central Canada. There exists a division of political power both east and west of central Canada. There are sharp divisions of interests (and taxation). The so-called Truckers protest was a general show of dissent, not an organized protest. It was very much opposed to Liberal socialism which is prevalent throughout the country. Natural trade routes are north-south so the west of Canada has much in common interests with the American west as opposed to central Canada interests. It is necessary to recognize that Canadian politics is very different from American politics….but both are trending towards socialism. John M. Thanks for writing in, John. I’ll pass this on to Byron. Donnie Baseball and Trading Sean, Interesting read today, you pointing out <$10 trades for “essentially” the same thing is really interesting/helpful to me. Keep ‘em comin’. If you mention Mattingly, you might know that he coached a AAA team in Joliet, Illinois, for a year or two. Jim T. Thanks for writing in again, Jim! I’ll do my best to keep on keeping on. I was unaware that Donnie Baseball coached in Illinois. Thanks for that! Vesuvius The last time I was in Naples was Christmas Eve in 1980. I remember the damage from the recent earthquake. God forbid that Vesuvius lets loose anytime soon. Your photo reminds me a little of Mt. Rainier, which looms in the distance over the poor devils in Seattle and Tacoma, Washington (except for the lack of snow). Folks I know who have summited Rainier say that up there you can smell the brimstone. Like the big V, it's not dead, only sleeping, and woe to those who get in the way of the inevitable pyroclastic flows. RJS Hi RJS! Thanks for writing in. It amazes me how Neapolitans just go about their day with that huge volcano in the background. Wrap Up What a great mailbag! Feel free to write in any time you like. Until then, keep well. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. 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