Market Wizards’ Humor

It’s time for a laugh… if not, you’ll cry. April 12, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( James Altucher: “Buy These Coins Before the Bitcoin Halving” This coming Sunday, at 7:00 p.m. ET, James Altucher is going to recommend his top six coins for the 4th Bitcoin Halving happening this coming week… He believes it will trigger the LAST CHANCE for everyday folks like you… To turn $1,000 into a six-figure nest egg in the next 12-18 months. [Click here to automatically save your seat for Sunday at 7pm ET…]( Clicking the link above automatically registers you for The Countdown To The 4th Boom. By reserving your spot, you will receive event updates and offers. We will not share your email address with anyone. And you can opt-out at any time. [Privacy Policy](. Market Wizards’ Humor SEAN RING Since the world is getting serious, I thought we’d lighten things up for this Friday. Here are my top 10 favorite Wall Street sayings. Some are funny, and some are wise. “If it flies, floats, or f*cks, it’s cheaper to rent.” - Marc Rich. This quote is easily my favorite. I’m devastated that no one told me this before I got married. If you ask any plane owner, yacht owner, or married man, they’ll tell you the same thing: there are some things in life that you should rent. “Took the anti-money laundering training. I suddenly have so many side hustle ideas.” - @overheardonwallstreet. How ironic. One of my human resources friends once told me, “The only thing unconscious bias training does is increase conscious bias.” In some parts of the world, sex education increases teenage pregnancy rates. So when I came across this quote, I laughed my ass off. It made complete sense to me. If someone teaches you all about money laundering, you’ll see ways to launder your own money, right? I was just conversing with my mother about moving her money around when she moved to Italy, but my mother’s money is completely clean. Still, moving it from account to account worldwide is similar to how money launderers move cash themselves. "Wall Street is the only place people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway." - Warren Buffett. I first tell private banking graduates never to tell their clients that they will increase their wealth. They protect their wealth and assets, put their money into suitable investments, minimize clients’ tax liabilities, help clients create succession plans, and show clients how to give their money away to charity. That’s it. Forget about increasing clients’ wealth. The clients already know how to do that. “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” - Barton Biggs. As the night is darkest before dawn, the market is the most euphoric right before it crashes. We’ve seen this many times, most notably in 1999, right before the March 2000 NASDAQ crash. The market was positively screaming from 1997 onwards. Most people thought the NASDAQ was a high-yield savings account. It was embarrassing following that rally. The NASDAQ fell from March 2000 until the end of 2003, going from 5,000 to 1,100 points, a nearly 80% drop. Many people don’t remember that because they were either born too late or were there and don’t want to remember. [Florida Man Wields Odd Device on Virginia Farm]( He traveled 1,000 miles away from home… To show you this strange device on a farm in rural Virginia. You won’t know by looking at it, but a secret company behind this strange device could hold the potential to make you rich over the coming years. [Click here to find out how.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( “Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.” - Jeff Bezos. This is an excellent saying because it helps one distinguish between probability and expectation. Most people would look at this and say, “If I only have a 10% chance of making money, why bother?” But if you have a 10% chance to make 100x your money, your expectation or expected value is a 10x gain (10% x 100x). A 10x gain: that’s why you should take that bet every time. “Picking bottoms gets you smelly fingers.” - Unknown. I can’t remember where I heard this, but it’s true: Nobody has ever picked a bottom. No one knew March 2009 would be the bottom of the market. That’s why it’s essential to remain somewhat invested at all times: No one can pick tops or bottoms. “God created economists to make weathermen look good.” - Unknown. Another example illustrates that economists cannot predict anything. I can’t tell you how many years I’ve looked at a January forecast where not a single economist was even close to where interest rates would end up on December 31. It’s embarrassing. Why bother? “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” - John Kenneth Galbraith. Galbraith hit the nail on the head with this one. There is no shame in not knowing. Most of us don’t know. Of course, when I write the Rude, I want to be as truthful in the present as possible. And yes, I look forward to using technical analysis, especially the monthly asset class reports. But I don’t know what’s going to happen. I try to guess what’s going to happen. Bloggers like Paul Krugman think they know what will happen in the future. His hero is Hari Seldon of Asimov’s Foundation series. He joined the economic profession to try to predict the future. He is atrocious at it. Krugman is the perfect example of an economist who doesn’t know that he doesn’t know. “It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” - George Soros. Before becoming Emperor Palpatine, George Soros was the greatest trader God ever made. He was a wunderkind, an incredible economist with outstanding macroeconomic knowledge. Soros broke the Bank of England in 1992, throwing the UK out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism that would have brought the UK into the Eurozone. Quite frankly, I thought The Queen should’ve knighted him for that. To this day, if you mention Soros’ name to anyone who works at the Bank of England, they will break out into hives. Soros is exactly right about this, though. If you take many small wins and then suffer one colossal loss, you will have a negative return on your portfolio. But you will be okay if you win huge, even once, and suffer many small losses. This is the one bit of advice from George Soros I want you to take. “The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.” - Peter Thiel. There are many reasons to like Peter Thiel. He’s intelligent, an excellent investor, and a genuine insider. He was one of the first and only people from the Left Coast to support Donald Trump. He is correct about thinking for oneself. Thinking is challenging, which is why nobody wants to do it. Figuring things out on your own is tricky, so masterminds are essential. That’s why learning from YouTube videos is essential. You can create your path by learning how to think on your own. Wrap Up Thank you for indulging me in this catharsis. I hope you learned something and had a laugh along the way. Have a wonderful weekend! All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Rate this email Like Dislike Thanks for rating this content! Looks like something went wrong. Please try to rate again. In Case You Missed It… Measure Twice, Cut Once SEAN RING The saying "Measure twice, cut once" is timeless wisdom, especially cherished by tailors, carpenters, and anyone whose work involves precise alterations. The crux of this saying lies in the gravity of its consequences. In tailoring, it's a stark reminder that a single, irreversible action can lead to wasted materials and time. The same principle applies to life and work, urging us to double-check our decisions and actions to avoid unnecessary setbacks. This proverb transcends its literal meaning, offering a metaphor for life and work: It's wise to be sure before making decisions or actions that can't be undone. It champions the virtue of caution and foresight, encouraging us to consider our actions thoroughly to avoid unnecessary mistakes and do-overs. If only our politicians and central bankers would heed those words. Let’s look at why the Fed needs to be damn sure before it cuts - if it even cuts this year. What Larry Said Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, seen in his secret lair high upon the mountains, talked to Wall Street Weekon Bloomberg yesterday. Credit: @BloombergTV Summers said, “In an economy that's growing faster than potential, with an unemployment rate that has a three handle in the presence of massive and growing budget deficits and especially easy financial conditions, the idea that inflation would remain robust or even accelerate should not be a surprise to anyone. And that's what today's data suggests.” I’m not surprised. You’re not surprised. Larry’s not surprised. But, for some reason, everyone inside the Eccles Building seems very surprised. Joe Biden hadn’t winced that hard since he left $85 billion on the ground for the Taliban. How in Sam Hill is the Fed supposed to cut rates to goose the Biden campaign if inflation won’t go away? And inflation isn’t the only problem the Fed has. [Nearing Retirement? Claim This Exclusive $1 Book Offer Right Away!]( “The Banker” is a hedge fund titan who spent years helping America’s richest families grow even richer. [And today, for the first time ever, he wants to send you his new book – where you’ll find 36 of his never-before-revealed income and wealth generating secrets](. If the potential at steady, predictable income (as well the chance at a few nice, quick windfalls) interests you, then I urge you to act right away. [== > Click here now to claim this exclusive $1 book offer](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Fiscal Dominance Fiscal dominance happens when a government's fiscal policy—the way it spends, taxes, and borrows—overwhelms or dictates the monetary policy set by its central bank. This situation arises when a government has a high level of debt and relies on the central bank to finance its deficit, either through direct lending or by influencing the central bank to keep interest rates low. Here’s the onion: In this scenario, the central bank may find itself unable to implement monetary policy effectively to control inflation or stabilize the currency because its primary aim is catering to the government's borrowing needs. Under normal circumstances, monetary policy should be independent, focusing on managing inflation and keeping the economy stable. However, with fiscal dominance, the central bank might be pressured to print more money to fund the government's deficit, leading to inflationary pressures or even hyperinflation in extreme cases. The concept of fiscal dominance highlights the delicate balance between fiscal policy and monetary policy and the potential consequences when one overshadows the other. Sound familiar? Here’s the fiscal budget deficits - how much more Congress spends than it receives in tax revenue - under Biden, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): - 2021: $3.0 trillion - 2022: $1.4 trillion - 2023: $1.4 trillion (estimated; final numbers aren’t in yet) - 2024: $1.6 trillion (projected) The Fed is Congress’ prisoner. A Hot Jobs Report Let’s head back to Larry, who five days ago on Wall Street Week said this about the jobs market: This was a hot report. Jobs above 300,000, upward revision, strong household survey hours up, payrolls up at nearly a 10% annualized rate. This was a hot report that suggested that, if anything, the economy is reaccelerating. This is very different from what lots of people, most people I think, are expecting and fits the thesis that the neutral rate is much higher than people supposed, and tight money is much less potent than people supposed. Summers continued: My view is that the evidence is overwhelming, that the neutral rate is far higher than the 2.5%, 2.6% that the Fed talks about. That evidence comes from four places. First, we have high interest rates and we have an economy that is, if anything, growing faster than its long-run potential, creating jobs as fast or faster than natural growth in the labor force, even allowing for immigration. Second, we have an economy with financial conditions that are extremely loose, that are actually looser than they were before the feds started the whole tightening process; if you look at credit spreads, you look at the stock market suggesting that in the fullness of it, all financial conditions actually haven't been tightened in an appreciable way. Third, if you look at the market's estimate of the long-run neutral rate as formed by looking at longer-term forward interest rates, that neutral rate is comfortably above 4%. Fourth, if you look at the fundamental determinants of the neutral rate, we have big surges in budget deficits that if anything looks to get worse given the political process. We have big changes in resilience, investment in green investment, in new investment in data centers, along with deglobalization, which may limit capital inflows into our country. So whether you look at the fundamentals, market estimates, financial conditions, or the current strength of the economy, the evidence seems overwhelming that the neutral rate is far higher than the Fed supposes. So you have rampant inflation, fiscal dominance, and a hot jobs market, and you need to cut rates to get your boss back in the Oval Office… unless you want a new boss… who was your old boss? What a mess! Getting Biden Back In If you have time later this morning, read my piece in the Morning Reckoning titled “Powell’s Pickle.” It should be out about 11 am ET. There, I expand on this thesis, with the inflation numbers thrown in for good measure. The Fed Got Pantsed Finally, James O’Keefe, formerly of Project Veritas and now at O’Keefe Media Group (OMG), just caught an economist at the Fed named [Aurel Hizmo]( bragging about how Jay Powell “held the line against, like, Trump.” Credit: [@JamesOKeefeIII]( Who talks about this stuff on a random date? Dumb ass. As our friend Jeff Deist said on Twitter, it’s just one more data point indicating the Fed isn’t a serious organization anymore… and it’s certainly not independent. Wrap Up The economic evidence overwhelmingly shows an economy that, if anything, is overheating from all the spending Congress is doing. Not only that, but the Fed hasn’t tightened as much as we thought. This has created increasing prices, a hot jobs market, and a soaring stock market. Yet, there’s still talk of a rate cut. Why? Because we live in Clown World, folks. In Clown World, there’s a fair chance that despite our 7,000 RPM economy, The Fed will make the political decision to cut rates in a robust economic and market environment. It won’t be June. And maybe not July. But the closer it gets to the election, the more political a decision will look. Unless, of course, we get market turbulence. Then the Fed will ride to the rescue, guilt-free. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. 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