“Get Out of Africa!”

The West Is Losing the World [Morning Reckoning] April 04, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( “Get Out of Africa!” Asti, Northern Italy April 04, 2024 [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, In this little-known part of Africa, France and the United States are in the process of getting kicked out. Usually, no one would care other than the pearl-clutching elite wondering why the natives rejected their particular brand of imperialism. But this casting out has far-reaching implications, as nature abhors a vacuum. Of course, Russia and China will fill that vacuum. But first, let’s name and define this ribbon of land: The Sahel. Credit: [WorldAtlas]( What is the Sahel? The Sahel is a semi-arid African region stretching from Senegal to Eritrea, forming a transitional zone between the Sahara Desert to the north and tropical savannas to the south. The area is important due to environmental, political, and security challenges. The Sahel is characterized by a tropical semi-arid climate and is known for its natural pasture, low-growing grass, tall herbaceous perennials, thorny shrubs, and acacia and baobab trees. This region has faced significant issues such as droughts, desertification, soil erosion, and overpopulation, leading to environmental degradation and humanitarian crises. The Sahel has been a focal point for jihadist attacks, armed groups, and rebel movements, particularly affecting countries like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mauritania. Efforts like the Sahel Alliance have been established to address these issues and promote sustainable development, peace, and security in the Sahel region by mobilizing resources, implementing projects, and fostering cooperation among various stakeholders. And yet, the Alliance hasn’t succeeded in doing much of anything. Now, there’s a new organization in the area. But first, let’s look at France’s history in the Sahel. [Urgent Notice for {EMAIL}]( [Click here to learn more]( Our records indicate that you ARE NOT currently signed up to receive Monday's time-sensitive trade alert from our company's top trader. This idea could double your money in a single day. Don’t miss this opportunity. [Add your name to our list today]( . [LEARN MORE]( France’s History in the Region. France's relationship with the Sahel countries of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali is deeply rooted in their shared history as part of the French colonial empire, and it continued to evolve in the post-colonial era until recently. These complex and multifaceted relationships encompass economic, military, and political dimensions. Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali were all once part of French West Africa, a federation of eight French colonial territories in Africa. They gained independence from France in 1960, but the legacy of French colonialism has profoundly influenced their political, social, and economic structures. After gaining independence, these countries maintained close ties with France. The relationship has often been criticized for embodying elements of "Françafrique," a term that describes France's ongoing influence in its former African colonies through political, economic, and military means. This influence is seen in the continuation of French business interests, military presence, and political support for specific regimes. France was a significant economic partner for these Sahel countries, involved in various sectors such as mining (especially uranium in Niger), agriculture, and services. French aid and investment were substantial, though they have sometimes been criticized for favoring French interests and contributing to a dependency relationship. France also runs the currency CFA Franc, which binds France to the region. I’ve written about the CFA franc before [here](. But a few reasons why this currency is such a misery for West Africa are as follows: First, the peg to the euro makes it damn near impossible for African countries to devalue their currencies in times of economic crisis. This makes it more difficult for them to export goods and services and attract foreign investment. Second, the CFA franc is not freely convertible and cannot be freely traded on the open market. This makes it difficult for African businesses to operate internationally or get a credit line. Third, the French government manages the CFA franc, not those African countries. This gives France control over the economies of the CFA franc countries. This control prevents these countries from developing their economies independently. The Sahel is also facing severe security challenges due to the presence of various armed groups, including jihadist organizations linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. France was actively involved in military operations in the region to combat these groups: - Operation Serval (2013): This operation was launched in Mali to push back jihadist groups that had taken control of the northern part of the country. It was considered mainly successful in its immediate goal. - Operation Barkhane (2014-2022): Succeeded Operation Serval, expanding the French military presence to other Sahel countries, including Burkina Faso and Niger, aiming to fight against jihadist groups across the region. - European Task Force Takuba: Following Barkhane, France also led efforts to create a European special forces task force to work alongside the Malian army and international partners. France's political relationships with these countries have been subject to fluctuations, often influenced by internal politics within the Sahel countries, changes in the French government, and evolving security situations. While France has historically supported governments in the region, there is growing anti-French sentiment among parts of the population, exacerbated by security issues, former colonial ties, and perceptions of French interference. Recent years have seen significant shifts. For example, in Mali, relations with France have deteriorated following military coups and the Malian government's engagement with Russian military contractors. I’ll speak more about Russia later. France announced the withdrawal of its troops from Mali in August 2022, Burkina Faso in February 2023, and Mali in August 2023, marking a significant shift in its military engagement in the region. The United States Quickly Enters and Exits. According to [Pepe Escobar]( (bolds mine): Obviously, no one in the US Beltway has been paying due attention to the Russia–Africa diplomatic flurry since last year, involving all key players from the Sahel to the new African BRICS members Egypt and Ethiopia. In sharp contrast to its prior regard of Niger as a staunch ally in the Sahel, Washington is now forced to present a calendar date to get its troops out of Niger – after a military cooperation deal was annulled. The Pentagon cannot be involved in military training in Nigerien territory anymore. There are two key bases – in Agadez and Niamey – which the Pentagon spent over $150 million to build. Niamey was finished only in 2019 and is managed by the US military's African Command, AFRICOM. Operational objectives are, predictably, shrouded in mystery. The Niamey base is essentially an intel center, processing data collected by MQ-9 Reaper drones. The US Air Force also uses the Dirkou Aerodrome as a base for operations in the Sahel. Now things get really exciting, because the presence of a de facto CIA drone base in Dirkou, manned by a handful of operatives, is not even acknowledged. This dark base allows intel collection everywhere in Central Africa, from west to north. Call it another classic example of former CIA director Mike Pompeo's "We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal." There are roughly 1,000 US troops in Niger who may soon face ejection. The Americans are trying everything to stem the bleeding. Only this month, US Undersecretary of State for Africa Molly Phee visited Niger twice. Losing bases in Niger will translate into Washington following Paris in losing control of the Sahel – as Niger gets closer to Russia and Iran. These bases are not essential to exercise surveillance over the Bab al-Mandeb; it's all about the Sahel, with drones operating on their limit and violating every sovereign air space in sight. Clearly, Western imperialism is off the cards for this part of sub-Saharan Africa. What’s Russia Got to Do With It? Of course, the US blames its favorite boogeyman, Russia! But this time, it’s not without cause. The Russians saw a vast opportunity and leaped at it. Again, from Escobar: Russia, diplomatically, and China, commercially, plus the full weight of the Russia–China strategic partnership, are clearly focused on the long game – counting on Africa as a whole as a key multipolar player. Additional evidence was provided once again during the multipolar conference last month in Moscow, where charismatic pan-African leader Kemi Seba from Benin was one of the superstars. Pan-Eurasian diplomatic circles even allow themselves to joke about the recent hissy fits by Le Petit Roi [President Macron] in Paris. The utter humiliation of France in the Sahel is likely one of the drivers of Macron's chest-thumping threats to send French troops to Ukraine – who would be turned into steak tartare by the Russians in record time – and his eagerness to support Armenia's current Russophobic stunts. Historically, the fact remains, that Africans considered the former USSR much more pliable and even supportive when it came to siphoning natural resources; that goodwill has now also been transferred to China. And now we have a new club in western Africa. The Alliance of the Sahel States. The Alliance of Sahel States is a mutual defense pact established by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It was formed by signing the Liptako-Gourma Charter on September 16, 2023, in Bamako. This alliance aims to provide collective defense and mutual assistance among the member countries in the face of security threats, armed rebellion, or external aggression. The agreement binds the signatories to assist each other, including militarily, in the event of an attack on any of them. The creation of this alliance was driven by the need to address the security crisis in the Sahel region, mainly due to the jihadist insurgency that has plagued the area since the early 2000s. The member states have experienced military coups and deteriorating relations with international bodies like The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The Alliance of Sahel States was established as a response to the ongoing security challenges in the region and the withdrawal of French military forces from Operation Barkhane in 2022. Wrap Up Make no mistake, this is one of the poorest regions on earth. But it’s mineral-rich, and Russia and China want in. This is just one more example of the world slipping through the West’s fingers. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( [Congrats, you earned this…]( As one of my readers, you qualify for [this special deal.]( Only a small fraction of our readers will have the chance to see this. Fortunately, you’re one of them. All you have to do is [click here now to see how to claim your special deal.]( [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Gold's Not Fooled By April's Dollar Dance Greg Guenthner, Editor [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, The US Dollar index pushed toward its February highs during a strong April Fool’s Day rally. No, this isn’t an elaborate practical joke. The buck is on a tear again after bouncing off its March lows. It’s now threatening to sneak back toward its November highs, erasing the steady drawdown that helped trigger the melt-up rally in late 2023. If traditional market relationships hold true, these developments should be decidedly bearish for risk assets, including precious metals. Yet gold doesn’t seem to care. The shiny yellow metal refuses to yield to the dollar and continues to extend its historic breakout into the early days of the second quarter. Despite less-than-ideal conditions during a short training week leading up to the Easter holiday, gold broke free from a brief consolidation to post new all-time highs as it topped $2,200 for the first time. It’s now up more than 8% year-to-date with nothing but blue skies ahead… I always pay close attention when the market deviates from the script. Gold isn’t supposed to rally in these conditions. Therefore, we can only assume there are more than a few strong buyers defying market relationships and buying as this historic breakout unfolds. The action we’re seeing this week is once again working in favor of my 2024 prediction that the gold breakout will accelerate and run to $2,600. Here’s a quick recap: All the way back in 2023, we discussed the fact that most of the experts and forecasters believed gold would finally break out above $2,100 and stay above this mark into the new year. The only problem leading into last week was that gold’s first attempts at a generational breakout were anything but clean. Despite numerous moves above $2,000 since the Covid crash, gold couldn’t finish a month above the 2K mark until last November. Then, when it finally broke through, gold bulls were forced to endure several false starts toward all-time highs that developed into mean little pullbacks. The market is sending a clear message right now: gold is done messing around and is now resolving higher following more than a few months of cautious optimism. It’s finally time to get greedy. Here’s how… Your Best Gold Buys Whether we’re talking about gold, tech stocks, or crypto, you should always approach your trades with the same simple question: What’s my goal with this investment? Are you looking to hold for months, years, or decades? Will precious metals be a speculative or core portfolio position? What is your stop loss – or the price/event that will trigger a get out or take profits? You have plenty of choices. A trader can capitalize on shorter-term moves in gold via the futures market, mining stocks, or through gold funds. The environment for gold trades is improving by the day. For the first time in many years, you can now employ some shorter-term breakout strategies to potentially capitalize on upside moves in precious metals. Maybe you don’t feel like messing around with quick hits. If so, you could easily employ a “buy-and-hold” strategy with gold using various funds such as the popular SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). These are all viable methods to gain exposure to gold’s big breakout. Remember, I believe the investment environment is at a critical turning point right now. Because gold has just recently exited a secular bear market, we’re going to begin to see greed-focused investors emerge in the space, as opposed to those holding gold as a form of disaster insurance. That’s right, the gold bug ranks are expanding before our eyes. That’s a good thing! The more buying pressure exerted on gold, the higher it goes. Even those hanging onto physical gold as a form of wealth protection against a doomsday event or unprecedented financial disaster will benefit. One final note about strategy: You don’t have to be “all-in” on one investment or trading goal. There’s nothing wrong with a physical gold owner who also trades mining stocks when the timing’s right. There’s plenty of room for gold in longer and shorter-term portfolios right now. Tracking the Next Metals Boom Gold isn’t the only metal flashing bullish signals right now. As more “mainstream” market watchers begin to climb aboard the gold bandwagon over the next several weeks, we’ll see additional opportunities emerge in the metals space. In fact, we’re already starting to see some key breakouts take shape. Last week, I explained that during ideal gold bull market environments, silver should be outperforming. Spoiler alert: silver has not been outperforming gold over any meaningful timeframes. As of right now, silver is still stuck below its December highs. But it is starting to look more constructive as it coils near this potential breakout zone… If silver can climb back above $26, we should see a quick breakout extension. The poor man’s precious metal has a lot of catching up to do… it can happen quickly! Looking beyond precious metals, opportunities are also cropping up in copper and uranium. Copper has successfully held its $4 breakout and industry pure plays are exhibiting impressive momentum. Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO) tagged new highs to begin the second quarter and is up more than 25% year-to-date. Meanwhile, uranium plays are popping again following a brief drawdown. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) gained more than 4% yesterday to top its March highs. While it remains off its recent highs, it’s still up almost 10% year-to-date. Yesterday’s move should trigger some follow-up buying. I wouldn’t be surprised to see URA take out those early February highs in short order. Gold’s decade-long bear market has scared virtually everyone out of the metals trades. In 2024, they’re beginning to find their way back. This is only the beginning. As performance improves, investors will have to work to gain exposure to these emerging market themes. That’s when the real gains start to stack up… Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Sean Ring] [Sean Ring, CAIA, FRM and CMT]( is a former banker and financial educator and is the editor of the Rude Awakening. Sean has trained interns and graduates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Standard Chartered Bank, DBS (Singapore), the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Bank Indonesia (the central bank), HSBC, Barclays, RBS, and BlackRock. He knows the global economy is being corrupted by forces that most people can't understand and has used his unique and worldly experiences to help people navigate the markets. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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