Welcome Back to the Everything Rally!

Right now, it’s simple to collect outsized gains. [The Rude Awakening] April 01, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Welcome Back to the Everything Rally! [Sean Ring] SEAN RING March 2024 Monthly Asset Class Report The SPX, Nasdaq, and Gold all hit monthly all-time highs. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose to 210, confirming strong support for the big boys’ rally. Bitcoin is trading at just under $70,000, as I write this. Even bonds have managed to hold their ground this month. Folks, welcome back to the Everything Rally! Just get long and stay long, and all your dreams will come true… What’s even more exciting is thinking about Jay Powell’s imminent rate cut. To support Biden’s utterly failing campaign or Treasury Secretary Yellen’s incredible spending, Powell will cut rates in either June or July. Once that happens, we’ll have the final goosing of the market for this cycle. Then, my bullish attitude will almost certainly change. Until then, gather ye rosebuds while ye may! With that in mind, let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 [Monthly Asset Report] ***NEW MONTHLY CLOSE RECORD OF 5,254.35*** From last month: Looking at this chart, there’s no reason in the world to be short. We may take a breather in the coming weeks, but I’d still participate in this rally. The long-term target remains 6,000. Nasdaq Composite [Monthly Asset Report] ***NEW MONTHLY CLOSE RECORD OF 16,379.46*** Absolutely no reason to get short here. The long-term target is 17,350. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [Monthly Asset Report] The Russell 2000 ETF took off and finished at 210.30. It’s not a record, but an indication of the strong market underlying the big boys. New target is a whopping 281. Big upside. The US 10-Year Yield [Monthly Asset Report] Still heading up until further notice. But I think the Fed cuts in June or July. This is come down, hard, then. Dollar Index [Monthly Asset Report] Not much going on here. I’d like to see a dollar drop, and that may happen in early summer, thanks to the Fed’s rate cuts. USG Bonds [Monthly Asset Report] Only moved a marginal bit up to 94.31. It may remain rangebound, but the best guess at the next target is 90. Investment Grade Bonds [Monthly Asset Report] LQD rebounded here. This may be a consolidation, before heading to higher ground. If it can remain elevated until the Fed rate cuts, we may see a big move to the upside. High Yield Bonds [Monthly Asset Report] Literally finished the same price as last month. From last month’s commentary: It can’t seem to get over the 77.50 hump. The upside target is in the 90s. I’d still be wary of a minor reversal if we don’t see an upside breakout soon. Real Estate [Monthly Asset Report] [Crypto Millionaire Reveals His #1 Coin for 2024]( Did you miss the Bitcoin boom? Don't worry - James Altucher (who called BTC success at $114 in 2013) just revealed his top crypto for this year, with the potential to turn $100,000 into $10 MILLION by 2030. [Click here to get the ticker 100% FREE now before it explodes >>]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Again, barely moved. From last month’s commentary: Put a hold on that reversal I called last month. We may be heading back up. The first target is 89, then 94. Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil) [Monthly Asset Report] Last month, I called 83 and here we are. Now, we target 90. Base Metals: Copper [Monthly Asset Report] We finally got our big move up, tempered by a move down in the last week. 4.30 is the next target. Precious Metals: Gold [Monthly Asset Report] ***NEW MONTHLY RECORD CLOSE OF $2,238.40.*** $2,609 is our new target, but it may take a few months to get there. Precious Metals: Silver [Monthly Asset Report] Up $2 from last month. When silver awakens, watch out! Above $26, and it’ll start to chase, and then surpass, Gold’s performance. GIDDYUP! Cryptos: Bitcoin [Monthly Asset Report] Another huge month for Bitcoin. We’re at nearly $70,000. Theoretically, the sky’s the limit. But my charts are looking for a slight pullback to $66,500. However, I’m still bullish on Bitcoin and crypto. Cryptos: Ether [Monthly Asset Report] We were up about $200 this month in Ether, but we’ve had a pullback. Next target is $4,400. Trad Asset Class Summary [Monthly Asset Report] Commodities are back, and surging. They were up 4.76%. The SPX finished second, with a 2.28% return. Oddly enough, the dollar also finished positively, up 0.45%. Bonds even got in on the action, albeit a little, gaining 0.36%. Crypto Class Summary [Monthly Asset Report] Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin all were up double digits in March. Ripple was up 4.70%, while Ether finished up 2.20%. Monero was the loser in March, down 8.10%. Wrap Up Stocks, crypto, and gold. It’s the same simple formula from last month. Long live the rally! Finally, let’s take a moment, courtesy of the Twitterverse: [Monthly Asset Report] All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… WHODUNNIT [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Friday! This bridge collapse will have huge repercussions in the MD area. It’s been a while since we raided the mailbag, so let’s get right into it. Accidentally On Purpose? You promised to eat crow if you were wrong; I hear Tabasco helps. It appears the ship lost power twice, the international crew sent a Mayday, and traffic was stopped. Not a likely terrorist scenario but the bridge is still closed, traffic must re-route, shipping has stopped until the passage is clear, and losses will ripple through the economy. If prevention and remediation are considered "nanny state", at the very least, let's put some teeth in fines and bankruptcy laws, for any accidents that prove to be negligence-based. Perhaps a public execution of corporate executives, and/or the captain of the ship, would be cost-effective as well as motivational? Damon C. I’m a 1975 Marine Engineer graduate from the US Merchant Marine Academy and I’ve been in touch with my classmates all day about this accident. Power/steerage failures on both steam- and diesel-powered ships are not at all rare. The power failure was followed relatively quickly by a restart (lots of black smoke from a struggling restart) and a clear effort to back down the ship’s forward momentum can be seen in the videos (typically not shown by the MSM). This looks like an accident, and while I appreciate the heads up for potential terrorist attacks, please do a little more homework before starting terrorist fear-mongering. We have enough of that in this world as it is. Otherwise, great reporting and I love reading your work. Keene L. Damon and Keene, thank you for writing in. Here’s me doubling down. First, Keene, your assessment agrees entirely with one of Maersk’s former Chief Engineers. [pub] I don’t dispute it. [Trump, Biden, _______?]( There are three potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential election – and not a single one is good for the American people. In fact, the secret “third candidate” that no one’s talking about poses the biggest threat of all… [His identity revealed here](. [Click Here To Learn More]( And your assertion that power outages happen more often than we’d believe is also correct. [The Maritime Executive]( reads: The probability of power loss in ship electric propulsion systems (SEPS) is estimated to be around 0.07, meaning there is a 7% chance of SEPS power loss occurring. Power loss in the propulsion system is a major risk factor leading to accidents, with over 700 such accidents happening in recent years. That’s far higher than I would’ve thought. Now, how many times has a bridge collapsed because it was hit by a ship? According to [this AP article]( from 1960 to 2015, there were 35 major bridge collapses worldwide due to ship or barge collisions, with 18 incidents occurring in the United States. I asked Perplexity to turn this into a probability. This is what it returned: Based on the details provided in the search results: From 1960 to 2015 (a 55-year period), 18 major bridge collapses in the United States were caused by ship or barge collisions. To calculate the probability: Total number of major bridges in the US over the 55-year period: The search results do not provide the total number of major bridges in the US during this time. Without this information, we cannot determine the exact probability. Estimated probability: Assuming thousands of major bridges are in the US, 18 collapses due to ship/barge impacts over 55 years suggest this is a relatively rare event. A rough estimate would be a probability of less than 0.1% (1 in 1,000) of a major US bridge collapsing due to a ship or barge collision in any given year. So, the estimated probability of a ship losing power and taking out a bridge is 7% x 0.1% = 0.007%. To compare, the [lifetime odds of getting hit by lightning]( is 1 in 15,300 or 0.00653%. That would make this a really freak accident. However, you’re right: I’m not an engineer. But most people in the finance game like I am are great at pattern recognition. Terrorist attacks don’t necessarily mean machine guns and mercenaries. In fact, I’m leaning heavily towards a cyberattack. I watched [this clip of the ship at 8x speed](. Someone (or some computer) undoubtedly steered that ship into the bridge support. But the boat had its harbor pilots onboard and steering. Indeed, these highly trained individuals didn’t steer the ship into the bridge. And yet, [John Zimmerman, an ironworker who helped build the bridge in the 1970s]( speculated based on the footage that the ship struck the bridge at its most vulnerable point: “It looks like it hit the only spot it could have hit to take the whole thing down.” Here are a few other fishy things: - What’s the busiest highway in the United States? I-95. - Which bridge in the US has few dolphins or fenders protecting its columns? The Key Bridge. - What’s the approved hazmat and military route around Baltimore? The Key Bridge. - Where will they go now? The other way around is more inland. Or, they’ll get special permission to truck hazmat under Baltimore via the Harbor Tunnel. - The US automotive industry depends on Baltimore’s port. - Why did Janet Yellen immediately say the US Treasury would pay for the collapse? Indeed, that’s the job of the boat’s insurance company. It's very fishy indeed. Later, she walked back those comments. - The harbor is now blocked, not just the highway path. Could this be Russia, China, Iran, or one of the millions of illegals crossing the border agitating? I think so. Dear Sean, I'm sure you were spot on with your analysis of the key bridge "attack." But the Chinese don't say, "May you live in interesting times," ironically. They say it as a curse!! Best regards, Martin Long-term HK resident Thanks, Martin. Wrap Up Again, there’s no definite answer as yet. But I still prefer a cyberattack scenario to a freak accident one. This month’s asset class report will be with you on Monday. In the meantime, have a wonderful Easter! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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