WHODUNNIT?

It’s all about Baltimore in the mailbag. [The Rude Awakening] March 29, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( WHODUNNIT? [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Happy Friday! This bridge collapse will have huge repercussions in the MD area. It’s been a while since we raided the mailbag, so let’s get right into it. Accidentally On Purpose? You promised to eat crow if you were wrong; I hear Tabasco helps. It appears the ship lost power twice, the international crew sent a Mayday, and traffic was stopped. Not a likely terrorist scenario but the bridge is still closed, traffic must re-route, shipping has stopped until the passage is clear, and losses will ripple through the economy. If prevention and remediation are considered "nanny state", at the very least, let's put some teeth in fines and bankruptcy laws, for any accidents that prove to be negligence-based. Perhaps a public execution of corporate executives, and/or the captain of the ship, would be cost-effective as well as motivational? Damon C. I’m a 1975 Marine Engineer graduate from the US Merchant Marine Academy and I’ve been in touch with my classmates all day about this accident. Power/steerage failures on both steam- and diesel-powered ships are not at all rare. The power failure was followed relatively quickly by a restart (lots of black smoke from a struggling restart) and a clear effort to back down the ship’s forward momentum can be seen in the videos (typically not shown by the MSM). This looks like an accident, and while I appreciate the heads up for potential terrorist attacks, please do a little more homework before starting terrorist fear-mongering. We have enough of that in this world as it is. Otherwise, great reporting and I love reading your work. Keene L. Damon and Keene, thank you for writing in. Here’s me doubling down. First, Keene, your assessment agrees entirely with one of Maersk’s former Chief Engineers. [pub] I don’t dispute it. [$100K > $10,000,000 By 2030. (Ticker Revealed)]( Right now, James Altucher has $100,000 of his personal wealth invested in a single trade idea. He rarely put this much money into a single name… But he has never seen this much profit potential. If his prediction is correct, he will walk away with a $10 million fortune in 2030. [TICKER REVEAL HERE]( [Click Here To Learn More]( And your assertion that power outages happen more often than we’d believe is also correct. [The Maritime Executive]( reads: The probability of power loss in ship electric propulsion systems (SEPS) is estimated to be around 0.07, meaning there is a 7% chance of SEPS power loss occurring. Power loss in the propulsion system is a major risk factor leading to accidents, with over 700 such accidents happening in recent years. That’s far higher than I would’ve thought. Now, how many times has a bridge collapsed because it was hit by a ship? According to [this AP article]( from 1960 to 2015, there were 35 major bridge collapses worldwide due to ship or barge collisions, with 18 incidents occurring in the United States. I asked Perplexity to turn this into a probability. This is what it returned: Based on the details provided in the search results: From 1960 to 2015 (a 55-year period), 18 major bridge collapses in the United States were caused by ship or barge collisions. To calculate the probability: Total number of major bridges in the US over the 55-year period: The search results do not provide the total number of major bridges in the US during this time. Without this information, we cannot determine the exact probability. Estimated probability: Assuming thousands of major bridges are in the US, 18 collapses due to ship/barge impacts over 55 years suggest this is a relatively rare event. A rough estimate would be a probability of less than 0.1% (1 in 1,000) of a major US bridge collapsing due to a ship or barge collision in any given year. So, the estimated probability of a ship losing power and taking out a bridge is 7% x 0.1% = 0.007%. To compare, the [lifetime odds of getting hit by lightning]( is 1 in 15,300 or 0.00653%. That would make this a really freak accident. However, you’re right: I’m not an engineer. But most people in the finance game like I am are great at pattern recognition. Terrorist attacks don’t necessarily mean machine guns and mercenaries. In fact, I’m leaning heavily towards a cyberattack. I watched [this clip of the ship at 8x speed](. Someone (or some computer) undoubtedly steered that ship into the bridge support. But the boat had its harbor pilots onboard and steering. Indeed, these highly trained individuals didn’t steer the ship into the bridge. And yet, [John Zimmerman, an ironworker who helped build the bridge in the 1970s]( speculated based on the footage that the ship struck the bridge at its most vulnerable point: “It looks like it hit the only spot it could have hit to take the whole thing down.” Here are a few other fishy things: - What’s the busiest highway in the United States? I-95. - Which bridge in the US has few dolphins or fenders protecting its columns? The Key Bridge. - What’s the approved hazmat and military route around Baltimore? The Key Bridge. - Where will they go now? The other way around is more inland. Or, they’ll get special permission to truck hazmat under Baltimore via the Harbor Tunnel. - The US automotive industry depends on Baltimore’s port. - Why did Janet Yellen immediately say the US Treasury would pay for the collapse? Indeed, that’s the job of the boat’s insurance company. It's very fishy indeed. Later, she walked back those comments. - The harbor is now blocked, not just the highway path. Could this be Russia, China, Iran, or one of the millions of illegals crossing the border agitating? I think so. Dear Sean, I'm sure you were spot on with your analysis of the key bridge "attack." But the Chinese don't say, "May you live in interesting times," ironically. They say it as a curse!! Best regards, Martin Long-term HK resident Thanks, Martin. Wrap Up Again, there’s no definite answer as yet. But I still prefer a cyberattack scenario to a freak accident one. This month’s asset class report will be with you on Monday. In the meantime, have a wonderful Easter! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( In Case You Missed It… Helping Hurts [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Besides living in an overcrowded, polluted, third-world shithole with barely any police, fire, or hospital services, NYC residents have to shell out between an extra 4% - 10.9% in income tax for the pleasure of earning there. That’s on top of federal, state, and sales taxes all Americans suffer - the correct verb regarding taxes is “suffer” - every year. I don’t get it, myself. But to each his own, I suppose. And now… the redistribution. It’s important to understand that government creates nothing. It earns nothing. And yet, as Thomas Sowell once said, “The welfare state is the oldest con game in the world. First, you take people's money away quietly and then you give some of it back to them flamboyantly.” By the Ides of April every year, Americans will have filled out a tax return and filed it. But the tax money was bled silently from Americans’ paychecks the previous year. That’s the quiet part. And then you’ll read a headline like this one, courtesy of Zero Hedge: “[New York Starts Handing Out Prepaid Debit Cards To Illegal Immigrants]( That’s the flamboyant part. What a mug that New York City resident must feel like! Those who commute from Long Island, New Joisey, or Connecticut must feel dumber. After all, if you earn in NYC, you pay NYC city tax. But this is about compassion and empathy, says those running NYC (into the ground). The more I hear people talk about empathy and compassion, the more I think evildoers are using those terms as weapons against good people of conscience. Who can argue that migrants need our help? Therefore, if there’s no argument against it, let’s do it! Well, here’s old Seanie with a bunch of arguments against it. [“I Am Deeply Disturbed by the Impending Aftermath of the Presidential Election.”]( No one has been properly warned of the election threat facing our nation – until now. Former White House Advisor Jim Rickards explains the disturbing future that awaits us in November. [Click here](. [Click Here To Learn More]( Thinking It Through At first glance, providing migrants with prepaid debit cards for food and baby supplies seems compassionate and perhaps even practical. It addresses immediate needs while respecting individuals' autonomy to make their own choices about essentials. However, this approach has challenges and criticisms. Let's break it down: First, from an economic viewpoint, injecting many prepaid debit cards into a local economy can lead to inflation, particularly in smaller communities or areas with limited resources. The sudden spike in demand might increase prices for food, baby supplies, and other essentials, harming migrants and the local population. There's a risk that such cards can be misused by the recipients or others who might exploit them. For instance, the cards could be used to purchase non-essential items, stolen, sold for cash, or used in fraudulent transactions. Ensuring the cards are used as intended would require oversight and administration, which brings additional costs and challenges. While providing immediate relief is indeed compassionate, there's an argument that such aids create a dependency that discourages long-term integration into society. Skills development, language training, and employment support are vital to helping migrants build independent lives. An approach focused solely on immediate financial aid overlooks these aspects. Managing a program like this involves significant logistical, administrative, and regulatory hurdles. From ensuring that the right people receive the cards to monitoring their use and preventing fraud, the complexity and cost of administration could be substantial. Migrants' needs vary widely depending on their circumstances, such as family size, health issues, or specific dietary requirements. Prepaid debit cards, while flexible, might not adequately address these varied needs, especially where specific services or support are required. There's also the risk of stigmatization and the accompanying civil unrest, where migrants using these cards could be identified and potentially discriminated against by others in the community. This could lead to social isolation or tension within communities. If not carefully managed, direct financial aid affects migrants' motivation for self-reliance. There is a delicate balance between providing necessary support and encouraging the development of independence. Redistribution, In and Of Itself The concept of redistributing income from taxpayers to migrants has stirred much debate, primarily because of concerns over misaligned incentives. Here are the main points: Redistribution policies discourage migrants and long-term residents from seeking employment if the benefits received are perceived as sufficient without the need to work. This could lead to fewer people being motivated to enter or remain in the labor market. Such policies increase the financial burden on taxpayers, leading to higher taxes or reduced services in other areas. We’ve seen this in NYC already. Over time, this generates resentment among the population, affecting social cohesion and the willingness of the public to support other forms of social assistance. Continuous financial support without conditions creates a dependency culture among recipients. This means that instead of encouraging integration and self-sufficiency, it might lead to a long-term reliance on state support. The UK’s welfare state is an excellent example of this. The resources directed toward income redistribution ought to be used for other initiatives to facilitate the integration of migrants, such as language training, education, or employment programs. These initiatives may have a more positive long-term impact on migrants and the host society. Effective economic integration of migrants is crucial for the economy's overall health—redistribution without focusing on integration delays or permanently blocks migrants' entry into the workforce. Finally, financial aid without accompanying measures to promote social integration leads to segregation and a lack of interaction between migrants and the host community, exacerbating social divides. (See: Sweden, Germany, and France.) Wrap Up Of course, I didn’t mention these migrants are illegal in the first place and that the taxpayer is compensating a criminal for a crime they committed. But this is why I say again: you can’t save society, but you can save yourself. Do everything you can to minimize your tax liability. When you pay your taxes, you’re not contributing to your country’s growth. You’re spending your money on other people’s families. Some can afford to do that. Most can’t. All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Twitter: [@seaniechaos]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. 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