Gold $2,600

shattering records [Morning Reckoning] March 26, 2024 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Gold $2,600 Baltimore, Maryland March 26, 2024 [Greg Guenthner] GREG GUENTHNER Good Morning Reader, The Senate quietly passed a $1.2 trillion funding package on Saturday morning to avert a partial government shutdown. Just days earlier, Jerome Powell and the Fed soothed jittery investors, declaring that the Fed still intends to cut rates before the end of the year. Meanwhile, you might have noticed gold and Bitcoin consolidating near their respective all-time highs. Coincidence? Probably not. While you might consider the sharp moves higher in both assets to be no-brainers considering recent events, gold’s resilience in the face of numerous rally-busting pressures is where I want to focus our attention. Crypto and its mind bending rallies might have hogged a majority of the attention recently. But there’s something special brewing in precious metals right now, even though most investors aren’t paying close attention to the sector. Today, I want you to briefly forget about the stocks-only-go-up rally, the artificial intelligence boom, and the roaring crypto market. Sure, these are all important market themes. But I want to take a break from the endless noise to dig into what’s happening with gold and other metals right now – and how you should position your portfolio to profit from the next major leg higher. Let’s begin with the post-Fed reaction and where it might lead us from here… [Urgent Publisher Warning]( Hi, I’m Matt Insley. I’m the Publisher at Paradigm Press. Today, I have [bad news to share]( regarding the future of Jim Rickards’ newsletter. [>> Click here now for my announcement.]( [LEARN MORE]( Fed Chair Jerome Powell is doing his best to keep his options open last week, explaining that while the path forward is still uncertain, the Fed still intends to cut rates before the end of the year. When, exactly? Well, even he’s not sure. All the so-called experts agree we’re getting cuts in 2024. But maybe not in June. As of early this week, July seems to be the most likely date for the first cut. Unless something unexpected happens, of course. I suspect inflation data release days will remain relatively volatile as everyone searches for clues as to which way the Fed might be leaning. It’s the watch and wait method in action – another layer of uncertainty to navigate as the first quarter draws to a close. How did gold react to the continuation of the unofficial data-dependent Fed policy? While stocks enjoyed a nice bump, gold spiked above $2,200 that evening for the first time ever. And it wasn’t the only metal streaking higher. Silver promptly topped $25 for the first time this year. Dr. Copper also stretched its gains and continues to hold above $4 as it consolidates just below 52-week highs. These moves bring the possibility of an extended metals rally back into focus following months of choppy action, which have been fraught with the occasional failed breakouts that tend to drive traders crazy. Yet gold has persevered through it all. In fact, gold continues to overcome multiple obstacles as it marches into uncharted territory: A Rising Dollar Fails to Cap the Gold Rally Gold has exploded off its February lows despite a resurgent dollar. That’s an impressive feat considering a strong dollar rally has stomped gold not once but twice over extended time frames since early 2022. The first was the dollar's epic surge during the 2022 bear market. The next was the dollar index’s summer bounce in 2023, which was partly to blame for gold’s ugly slide into the low $1,800s in early October. The dollar index has been working off its lows since late December. Yet gold has still managed to maintain higher prices. That’s worth noting, especially since gold hasn’t exactly been the recipient of the bulk of the anti-dollar attention lately… Crypto is Stealing the Narrative I’ve seen several arguments lately that all go something like this: Gold is not the preferred anti-inflation, anti-dollar investment vehicle anymore. It’s a dinosaur. The younger investors who would have been “all in” on the gold narrative are now involved in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This line of thinking makes sense – and I don’t think it’s completely ridiculous to assume that crypto has stolen some of gold’s shine over the past several years. But again, gold is steadily consolidating near its highs, even as Bitcoin retakes $70,000 and meme coins capture the imagination of the next generation of speculators. Sure, Bitcoin moves faster than gold. But momentum works both ways. While Bitcoin’s recent consolidation has featured some wild swings in both directions, gold’s consolidation has been relatively stable. No, it probably won’t generate the massive short-term gains folks have come to expect from crypto. But it’s certainly a more stable dollar hedge, if that’s what you’re looking for… Gold’s Speculative Sidekicks Can’t Get Ahead As if a disinterested speculator class wasn’t enough, gold’s more speculative sidekicks – silver and mining stocks – have yet to kick into high gear. In ideal gold bull market environments, silver should be outperforming. That’s simply not the case right now. In fact, silver is still below its December highs – and well below all-time highs. Meanwhile, gold just posted new all-time highs earlier this month. Gold miners are beginning to firm up. But they have yet to post a significant change in trend. If precious metals speculators were out in force, we would have seen much more constructive action in these stocks as soon as gold made its initial push toward $2,000 in Q4. Conditions for this latest gold run are far from perfect. But that hasn’t put the brakes on the rally. That alone tells us that despite some of the recent setbacks, a strong bid under the gold market should help it (eventually) extend higher. If we assume this consolidation area is a halfway point of gold’s rally off its latest retest of $2,000, I think $2,400 is a reasonable short-term upside target. From there, $2,600 is well within reach over the next several months, which would match my longer-term prediction from mid-December. Don’t sleep on gold here… Best, [Greg Guenthner] Greg Guenthner Contributing Editor, Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com [Don’t Buy Any Crypto Until You Read This New Book!]( [Click here to learn more]( Do not… I repeat… [Do NOT buy a single cryptocurrency until you read this new book](. This could be the biggest opportunity of your life, but only if you act now. [Click here to see how to claim a copy of The Big Book of Crypto](. [LEARN MORE]( In Case You Missed It… Sachs: Ukraine Disaster a 30-Year US Project Sean Ring, Editor [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning Reader, Sometimes, I watch videos on YouTube or X and think, “Thank heavens I listened to the right people about Russia and Ukraine.” Of course, I claim no clairvoyance, and I’m not a “Washington Insider” like my colleague Jim Rickards. I’m just a well-traveled, educated spectator who tries to understand what’s happening and then writes about it. And since my trouble with authority extends to the mainstream media, I didn’t listen to their propaganda from Day 1. I listened to alternative intelligent people like John Mearsheimer, Scott Ritter, Douglas MacGregor, The Duran’s Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, Glenn Diesen, Tom Luongo, Alex Krainer, and Paradigm’s very own Byron King and Brian Maher. However, Jeffrey Sachs, one of the “Harvard Boys” who allegedly cost Russia billions in the 1990s, is a stunning addition to this roster of fine people. Sachs was a Harvard man from his undergraduate degree to his Ph.D. in Economics. He now plies his trade at Columbia. His shock therapy of privatizing assets quickly in the post-Soviet era is generally considered a disaster. I don’t know Professor Sachs, so I can’t say it’s guilt. But he’s been sticking up for Russia a whole lot lately. In fact, he’s laid the blame for this disaster squarely at the door of the US government. So, with stifled laughter, I watched Professor Sachs politely ignore Piers Morgan’s whining and stupid questions to explain how this whole mess started. Morgan’s entire strategy was to get Sachs to call Putin names. Really. Sachs says (bolds mine): Well, I think he's very smart, very tough, and I think he says what he means. In 2007, he said, “Don't do this,” at the Munich Security Conference. Famously, he said, “Alright, you went violating…” what I know to be true, by the way, which was not an inch eastward for NATO promised by James Baker III and by Hans-Dietrich Genscher to Gorbachev in 1990. I know that's for sure the case. The United States expanded NATO to Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic in the Clinton period, and then to seven more countries in 2004… Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria. And then, in 2007, Putin said, “Stop. Alright, stop. No more. Not to Ukraine.” So what does George W do in 2008 in Bucharest? Of course, what does he do? He says, “Guarantee Ukraine and Georgia.” And this is Palmerston's playbook from 1853. So we're going to surround Russia and the Black Sea again, exactly that. Morgan, devastated that Sachs only called Putin smart and tough, asks again: Just to interrupt though. I just asked you what your view of Putin is, and so far you've just said he's smart and tough. Any negatives, professor? Sachs, mildly amused, continues: I believe that the big mistake of both sides is we should talk this out. And now let me say a word about talking it out. In 2008 when Bucharest happened, European leaders called me, because I'm friends with them. They said, “What is your crazy president doing?” By the way, some who are in power right now, I won't name names. “What is your president doing? Why is he destabilizing things? He promised he wasn't going to push Ukraine.” That's what European leaders say in private. They don't say it in public. We avoided the negotiations. Then 2014 came, sadly, Piers. I saw it. I saw some of it firsthand. It was ugly. The United States should not be funding overthrows of governments. We did. I know it. Okay, so I happened to be there soon afterward with the handpicked government handpicked by Victoria Nuland. We didn't talk then. Then came the Minsk agreements, and then the United States said privately, even though the UN Security Council has backed both Minsk One and Minsk Two, you don't have to do this. And so with Porschenko, don't worry about it. Then we heard, of course, Chancellor Merkel say afterward, “Yeah, we weren't taking it too seriously,” even though Germany and France were the guarantors of that. Then on December 15th, 2021, Putin put it down in a draft US Russia security agreement. I read it. I called the White House. I said, “You know what? You can negotiate on this basis. Avoid the war.” “No, no, no. There's going to be no war, Mr. Sachs.” I said, “Just tell them that NATO is not going to enlarge. You'll avoid the war.” “No, we're never going to say that. We have an open door policy.” [Sachs retorted] “So what kind of open door policy? We've had 200 years of the Monroe Doctrine, some open door policy.” “No, no, no, Mr. Sachs.” Then the war broke out. Immediately, Zelinsky says, “Okay, okay. We can be neutral. We can be neutral,” and negotiations start, as you know. Naftali Bennett, informally, is the prime minister of Israel and Turkey, with its very skilled diplomacy. I actually flew to Ankara to discuss with the Turkish diplomats what was going on. The US stopped the agreement. Why? Because they thought, “We'll win. We can bleed Russia, our sanctions, cutting them out of the banking system. We're going to bring them to their knees.” It's a bunch of terrible miscalculations is what it is. It's a game, a terrible game. By now, the clearly frustrated Morgan blurts: What I'm fascinated by though is I've asked you to say what you think of Putin, and so far, like I say, you've only called him tough and smart. This is a guy that kills his political opponents. This is a guy who, who rules his country like a gangster? I'm struggling to understand why you can't find any negatives for the guy. He's a dictator. Sachs, maintaining his composure, says: Because I'm trying to find peace and you don't do it the way that Biden does. Biden said, okay, he's a thug. Biden says he's a crazy SOB. That's real good, Joe. That's really getting us to where we want to go. That's hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians dead. Why don't we move a little bit beyond? After a bit more to-and-fro, Sachs says: I wrote a book about the Cuban Missile Crisis in its aftermath. Kennedy didn't go name-calling Khrushchev. He tried to save the world to stop the war afterward. He didn't insult Khrushchev. What he did was sat down with him and negotiated the partial nuclear test ban treaty. We're not in a game. We're not in name-calling. We're not in a cage brawl. We're trying to actually not have the world spiral into nuclear war. So it's not that game. The game is sit down and negotiate. Wrap Up I’m thrilled to bring you this first because you should hear this kind of learned discourse (against a boorish interviewer). Second, I can say, hand-on-heart, that what we’ve brought to you from Paradigm Press about Russia-Ukraine is finally getting vindicated by people in the know, like Jeffrey Sachs. From Jim Rickards to Brian Maher to Dave Gonigam to Byron King to me and many others at Paradigm Press, we’ve been on this since Day One in 2022. Many haven’t liked it. They wanted us to toe the line. But that’s not how we do things around here. We knew about “not one inch eastward” and wrote about it. We knew the sanctions would backfire and wrote about it. We knew the USG had far too much involvement in Ukraine from 2014 and wrote about it. We knew Russia would come out of this stronger and wrote about it. To watch a mainstream hack whine because a distinguished professor won’t call Putin names is just delicious. But what about the content of the interview? If you’ve been reading our stuff for the past few years, you know all this already. Have a wonderful weekend! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Contributing Editor, The Morning Reckoning feedback@dailyreckoning.com X (formerly Twitter): [@seaniechaos]( Thank you for reading The Morning Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:dr@dailyreckoning.com) [Greg Guenthner] [Greg Guenthner, CMT,]( is chief strategist at Forge Research Group. He has spent the better part of the past two decades developing long-term and short-term strategies with a single goal in mind: to help everyday investors generate outstanding returns and control their financial futures. Greg’s charts, analysis, and insights have appeared in Marketwatch, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, and many other financial publications. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2024 Paradigm Press, LLC. 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Reckoning e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Reckoning, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@dailyreckoning.com. This address is for feedback only. 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