January 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report

Stocks, gold, and even bonds had a great month. [The Rude Awakening] February 02, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( January 2023: Monthly Asset Class Report - The SPX rocketed up nearly 7%. - Gold is on the verge of breaking $2,000. - The dollar says, “Thank you, Sir. May I have another?” for the third month running. [Click here to learn more]( [Ex-Advisor to the Pentagon and CIA gives possible FINAL WARNING about death of the American economy]( [(View here or ignore at your own risk)]( [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Good morning from another gorgeous day in Asti! I must apologize to you. I had my eyeball so firmly on the Fed yesterday that I forgot to write the monthly asset class report! Well, as we predicted, the Fed only hiked 25 basis points. And I think another 25-bp hike will follow. But there were no surprises. The good news is that the SPX finally closed above 4,100. Though I’ll be far happier if it finishes the week above 4,150. Then we’re in proper bull market territory - or big sucker’s rally territory - for a while, at least. One quick note when you look at the charts: for the single instrument charts, they end on February 1st, and not January 31st. As they’re weekly bars, that doesn’t matter all that much. But it’s not perfect, and I wanted you to be aware of that. (They’re actually more up-to-date, which, in the case of the SPX especially, matters.) The two performance charts at the conclusion of this report indeed end on January 31st, so the comparisons are fair. It was a surprising month for me, as the market turned tail and headed north. As the January Effect is little more than an old wives’ tale, I didn’t buy into a big month. Well, I was wrong. Let’s look at the charts to see… S&P 500 [SJN] I thought it was likelier we’d head down, but the market turned right around on January 3rd. We didn’t just break up; we finally broke the 4,100 level. It’s imperative we finish the week above this level. (I’d feel more comfortable if we finish above 4,150.) Then we’re off to the races for a bit. I suspect we’ll hit 4,400 before reality starts to set in again. Remember, both the manufacturing and services PMIs, and the regional Fed surveys, are horrible. But right now, Mr. Market doesn’t care. Up, up, and away… Nasdaq Composite [SJN] What I wrote last month: December was awful for the tech space, and I suspect that will continue throughout Q1. The other case is that this may be a double bottom, and we’ll bounce to 11,500. Well, it was a double bottom, and we indeed bounced to 11,500 and then some. Next stop: 13,000. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [SJN] What I wrote last month: Though we had a down month, the Russell still deserves credit for holding up as well as it has. But it looks like we’ll test that $162.50 bottom again. If we lose that level, we head to $145. If not, it’s back up to $187. God bless small businesses! Not only did it hold up, but it also blasted through that $187 level. The US 10-Year Yield [SJN] We fell again, contrary to my ideas on the subject. For now, we’ll keep falling. But I genuinely don’t think the markets believe Chairman Pow, and he’s not done hiking rates yet. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a rally later in the year, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen anytime soon. Dollar Index [SJN] We haven’t gotten the whipsaw in the USD yet. Down another two points in January. We can bounce off this resistance level (101) right here and head back up. Or it’s down to 95.75. USG Bonds [SJN] Bonds rallied again, but this may be a double top. The argument against that is the golden cross forming, with the 50-day MA looking to cross above the 200-day MA shortly. If we break above, look for the 117.50 level. A break downward means we’re heading to 100 first, then perhaps 92. Investment Grade Bonds [SJN] I’m wrong on this one for now, as well. The golden cross formed and we’re up. If we get above 112.50, look for 118 and then 120. A break down takes us to 105. High Yield Bonds [SJN] I thought we’d head down to 70, but that wasn’t meant to be. We’re at resistance right now. A break above this level takes us to 78.50. A break down, and we head to 74. [URGENT: 2-Minute Clip]( [Please take a moment and go here now to see my new clip.]( It’s short. Only about 2 minutes or so. But it’s about a fast-moving situation that could hand investors the chance to double-their-money in a week – even during this market selloff. [The proof will SHOCK you]( But you need to see this new clip now, before it gets pulled down! [LIR]( [So please, go here now to watch this urgent 2-minute clip.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Real Estate [SJN] I was completely wrong on this one, as well. We rallied hard. The next stop is 99. If we have a breakdown for some reason, the next level is 82. Base Metals: Copper [SJN] It seems that supply chain woes and scarcity are currently outweighing the lack of manufacturing activity. Or perhaps it’s China’s reopening. Either way, we’ve had another golden cross. But I’m still wary of the underlying macro. Precious Metals: Gold [SJN] We blew through the 1,880 level and we’re nearing 2,000. Once we get above 2,000, we’re looking at 3,000. Seriously. As in another 50%. Gold, gold miners, and junior miners are all in play. Precious Metals: Silver [SJN] From last month: But the market is looking a little winded. Don’t be surprised if we pause here for a bit before resuming our uptrend. Above $25, we can be comfortably bullish. No changes. Cryptos: Bitcoin [SJN] Though we never got to $10,000, I’m still not a big believer. And honestly, I don’t know what would make me believe. But from a chart perspective, we’re running into resistance here. And its golden cross has not yet formed. Cryptos: Ether [SJN] Same commentary as for Bitcoin. I’m just not a believer right now. Trad Asset Class Summary [SJN] My last line from this section last month was: As a result, I think Q1 2023 will be dreadful. Oops. The SPX was up 6.60% and looks like it will continue up for the time being. Bonds and commodities were up as well. The big story is the USD. Will the dollar continue its plunge? There’s no indication the fall will abate any time soon. And another rate increase won’t help it right now anyway. It looks like it’s risk-on for now. Crypto Class Summary [SJN] After a terrible 2022, the big coins were up over 30% each. Joining BTC and ETH were DOGE and Litecoin, also up nearly 37% and nearly 33%, respectively. Ripple (XRP) and Monero (XMR) were the laggards, but still up roughly 20% each. Wrap Up Ok, it’s rally time… for now. We’re heading up in the stock market until the market becomes aware of the economy. And there are plenty of ways to take advantage of the situation. Stocks, gold, and even bonds look good for now. But be ready to sell out at a moment’s notice. Mr. Market is happy one minute and upset the next. Finally, let’s take a moment to congratulate the unholy alliance of warmongering neocons and economically illiterate tree huggers on their latest accomplishment: [SJN] Have a great day! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. 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