Here’s What Happens in 2023

The Year in Preview [The Daily Reckoning] January 05, 2023 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Here’s What Happens in 2023 - The only winning assets in 2022… - A very serious omen for the economy… - Your editor’s predictions for 2023… [SECRET: You won’t see this on Youtube or any government website]( I just released a hidden video that you won’t find on YouTube or any government website… A video that will reveal secrets shared by one of the U.S. Government's most legendary insiders… A secret that I’ve used to predict terrorist attacks on behalf of the CIA… [Watch This Video Before It's Taken Offline]( Annapolis, Maryland January 5, 2023 [Brian Maher] BRIAN MAHER Dear Reader, The calendar has scrolled to 2023… for good … or ill. As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to hazard our annual market forecast — such as it is. So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead. How will the economy fare in 2023? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin? The answers — the guaranteed answers — anon. Yet before we glimpse how markets will end 2023, let us observe how they ended 2022… A Lean Harvest In all, 2022 yielded a very lean harvest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 8.7% on the year — a barren field. But the Dow Jones sprouted a bumper crop against the other main indexes. The S&P hemorrhaged 19.4% last year. The Nasdaq Composite absorbed a whaling even more vicious — down 33% in 2022. Now imagine you purchased Bitcoin last Jan. 1. By Dec. 31 your digital “asset” depreciated a shrieking 65% in 2022. How do you like it? Not All Is Lost Yet among the barren soil and the choking weeds some meager flowers emerged. Gold scratched out a 0.2% gain in 2022. Oil, meantime, yielded a 0.5% return. Slender, slender gains, it is true. Yet a slender gain is a jackpot against an 8.7%, 19.4%, 33% or 65% loss. And so the man who clung exclusively to oil and gold reaped a relative jackpot in 2022. Yet we will glance backward no more. Let us instead look forward into the year beyond. What can you expect for 2023? “So Goes January, so Goes the Year” For now we limit our crystal-gazing to Wall Street and the stock market. “So goes January, so goes the year.” That is an old Wall Street wheeze in reference to the stock market. If the stock market comes out of January in green numbers, it will likely close the year in green numbers. If the stock market comes out of January in red numbers, it will likely close the year in red numbers. Does this Wall Street lore have anything in it? [Response Requested 1/1000th of an ounce of gold available for you]( As a The Daily Reckoning reader, Jim Rickards is offering you 1/1000th of an ounce of gold when you upgrade your account. It will come in the form of a “Gold Back” - a new type of gold currency that’s starting to spread across America (click here to view). If you have not responded to Jim’s offer yet, and want to know how to claim yours… Please click the link below for details. Thanks! Amber Anderson Customer Service [Click Here To Learn More]( “Statistical Significance” The Stock Trader’s Almanac — a sort of Old Farmer’s Almanac for the stock market — argues yes. Its producers have thumbed through the stock market’s diary entries since the year 1900. This drudge work reveals this curious and relevant fact: January’s performings aligned with the year’s performings some 75% of the time. It is true, 75% is not 100%. Yet 75% represents what the numbers men term “statistical significance.” And plenty of it. The Early Returns It is but five days into January and therefore far too soon to pull conclusions. Yet early indications are not entirely auspicious. The Dow Jones has shed some 300 points since Jan. 3rd’s opening whistle. Both S&P and Nasdaq have endured parallel losses on a percentage basis. Yet for emphasis: January is youthful and the stock market may end the month very deeply in clover. We merely note its early doings. Yet here is one ill omen for the stock market: positive economic news, this morning released… Good News for Main Street, Bad News for Wall Street Reports Yahoo Finance: U.S. stocks sank Thursday after economic data showed private payrolls rose more than expected last month and weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market that's likely to keep the Federal Reserve on track for higher interest rates. That is, positive news for Main Street is negative news for Wall Street. We have observed the phenomenon several times these past several years, and remarked about it. The entire business wars against the natural intuition. A normal fellow, of sound mind, reasonably sane, might assume that rising payrolls and falling jobless claims would give a push to Wall Street — that what is healthy for the economic apparatus is healthy for the stock market apparatus. It’s Alice in Wonderland Yet today’s stock market runs to very strange and perverse settings. Positive economic showings leave Wall Street wringing its hands in dreadful worry… as Yahoo Finance reports… and for the reason it cites. Positive economic showings blast a powerful signal that the Federal Reserve will stick to the warpath and continue raising interest rates. In fairness, we place little faith in government-supplied economic data — particularly positive economic data. Yet Wall Street takes it quite heavily. That is why your editor takes any notice of it whatsoever. How much more positive economic news the stock market can absorb… real or imagined… we do not know. Yet we hazard it may go to pieces in the face of additional economic joy. Bad News for Main Street, Good News for Wall Street But wait, what is this we learn? We have shoveled up news disturbing for Main Street — thus salivating news for Wall Street. Money supply growth recently went negative… for the first occasion in 33 years. Thirty-three years! That is, the rate of money supply growth did not merely slacken. It went into actual contraction — again, for the first occasion in 33 years. And that is a poor economic augur, a worrying straw swaying in the wind. Ryan McMaken of the libertarian Mises Institute: Money supply growth fell again in November, and this time it turned negative for the first time in 33 years. November’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years… Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. [[CHART] Could Inflation Hit 20%+ In 2023?]( [Click here for more...]( Take a close look at this scary chart pictured here… What you see is the money supply in America… And as you can see, the number of dollars in circulation has exploded in the last few years. In fact, more than 80% of all dollars to ever exist have been printed since just 2020 alone! Which is why some say inflation could soon explode even higher than it is now, to 20% or more. And if you’re at or near retirement age you must take action now to protect yourself… otherwise you risk losing everything. See how to survive America’s deadly inflation crisis. [Click Here Now]( No “Soft Landing” Once again, and to emphasize: Not only has money supply growth diminished — it has slipped into actual reverse. More: That is generally a red flag for economic growth and employment. It also serves as just one more indicator that the so-called “soft landing” promised by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ever be a reality. We are compelled to agree. Any “soft landing” promised by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ever be a reality. The foregoing constitutes reliable evidence — in our estimation at least — that the United States economy is careening toward recession. We estimate further that the gathering recession will settle in during 2023’s first quarter. Thus we satisfy one of our predictions for the year. The economy will enter recession at one point during the first quarter — the second quarter at the very latest. Wall Street Gets Its Pivot Even the Federal Reserve will be unable to miss the recessionary realities. It will then take to the straightabout… and reverse course. It will begin lowering interest rates — and at a clip. This we forecast for May, no later than June. Wall Street will finally have its desperately desired “pivot.” That in turn brings us to our second 2023 prediction: The stock market will recover its bounce this year — even if perhaps January ends in red. The Dow Jones will close the year above 36,000. The S&P 500 will close the year above 4,300 and the Nasdaq will close the year above 15,000. To proceed… More Predictions Gold will end 2023 near $3,000, oil above $125. Bitcoin will end 2023 somewhere between $0 and $60,000. Finally — though unrelated — the United States House of Representatives will elect a speaker sometime before midnight strikes on Dec. 31. Yet it may be a near run thing. Thus concludes our crystal-gazing for this year. We advise you to invest accordingly. Our advice is free of course. And as you know, a man gets what he pays for in life… Regards, [Brian Maher] Brian Maher Managing Editor, The Daily Reckoning [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com) Editor’s note: As many of his readers know, Jim Rickards has worked closely with the CIA, and as you may expect, much of that work is classified. But as Jim explains, not all of it. Jim’s putting the finishing touches on a [new CIA-based timing tool for the market.]( And he wants to make sure you don’t miss your opportunity to give it a “test-run.” You can [click here for all the details.]( But if you want to take advantage, please do not hesitate — you won't find this video on YouTube or any government website and it could be taken down at any moment. Once you see this interview, Jim’s convinced that your view of the stock market will never be the same… No matter if the markets are booming… or crashing like we’ve seen the past year. What you’re about to see might sound unbelievable, but it’s 100% based on facts and Jim’s work at the CIA. [Click here now to watch before this video is taken off the internet.]( Thank you for reading The Daily Reckoning! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to [feedback@dailyreckoning.com.](mailto:feedback@dailyreckoning.com) [Brian Maher] [Brian Maher]( is the Daily Reckoning's Managing Editor. Before signing on to Agora Financial, he was an independent researcher and writer who covered economics, politics and international affairs. His work has appeared in the Asia Times and other news outlets around the world. He holds a Master's degree in Defense & Strategic Studies. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2023 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. 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