This Is What a Recession Looks Like

The Best of Gilder’s Daily Prophecy [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] December 29, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Regarding Internal Policy Change [Click here to learn more]( We just ripped up one of our longest standing internal policies – and completely rewrote it. It’s near certain to have a huge impact on your subscription… and how you invest your money in 2023. I explain everything in [this video](. [Click here to watch it right away before this message is removed from the internet at midnight on December 31](. *Editor’s Note: We are taking a break for the holidays and re-releasing some of our best issues of Gilder’s Daily Prophecy from 2022. We will resume our normal publishing schedule after the New Year. Originally published on April 27, 2022 This Is What a Recession Looks Like [Jeffery Tucker] JEFFREY TUCKER Dear Reader, The financial markets seemed pretty rickety yesterday and probably prompted millions to check in on their 401K’s unimpressive results. It becomes a real source of frustration for people, even as inflation is wrecking the dollar’s purchasing power. The public mood is shifting fast. But let’s be clear: what we have here is a waking up to reality that has been papered over for the better part of two years. Let’s take a trip back in time. In July of 2019, there was already fear in the air. We know this by looking at Google trends. We can see a peak of interest in searches for “recession.” It’s not a perfect predictor but has proven fairly reliable over time. There’s not been a higher peak since 2008. An economic downturn was likely coming already before the lockdowns. That was a forced depression that was covered up via spending and printing without precedent in the whole of modern history. Now we see another rise in searches. Truth is that people are getting scared. [chart] Let’s take a look at the striking polls, which show that people are far smarter than the media. A Gallup poll shows only 2 percent of the public (meaning practically no one) says that economic conditions are excellent. That, by itself, is amazing given that one third of the whole of the existing money supply has been printed in the last two years. People have had money raining down on their heads! Where’s the appreciation? Only 18 percent said the economy is good. The rest said it is meh or awful. More telling, three quarters of those responding said that conditions are getting worse! In other words, overall satisfaction is worsening daily. And the number one problem? Inflation. But, hey, that’s just because of gas prices, right? Nope: only 6 percent said that. The real problem is everything else. Deep Recession Deutsche Bank is the first to say it outright: the US is headed for a recession. The analysis is pretty plain. To stop the inflation, the Fed will have to raise interest rates. That will kill growth. They will choose this path over letting inflation run rampant. I’m not sure I agree with that Fed analysis. There’s a case to make that the Fed will reverse its present fake tightening and do everything to prevent a recession. They will likely get one anyway. Joining this voice is Bank of America which is also forecasting a recession. My friends, this is where it gets scary. What does a deep recession look like? [External Advertisement] When Biden's Economic Blizzard Hits...Will You Be Left Out in The Cold? Energy rules the world. It’s the one industry that all other industries depend on. It’s what keeps the lights on, it gets food to your table, and heat in your house. Now, for the first time in history, hard-working Americans can invest in the energy sector with an industry insider in their corner. And today Robert Kiyosaki’s Energy Expert is pulling back the curtain and giving you all the details you need in this new time-sensitive special report: [The Energy Opportunities QuickStart Guide](. Some of the world’s most powerful insiders, CEOs, and other big whales have paid him up to $120,000 a year for his 90%+ accurate intel in this one market alone. So act now while there’s still time to claim your copy if you want to get in on [these under-the-radar energy gold mines](. Please, Please Help Us! But hey, housing is riding high right? Consider the following chilling sign. The National Association of Home Builders has sent a letter to the White House, calling on the government to “take action.” [letter] “Extreme duress” huh? That’s not what we are hearing from the media. Truth is that this is correct: housing is experiencing dislocations and price increases that make 2008 look like nothing by comparison. Back then, everyone was saying that housing could NEVER be the cause of a financial crisis because it is so disparate and specific to neighborhoods and communities. Then suddenly, everything fell apart due to the wild distortions of the market for mortgage-backed securities. What does the Association suggest? They mention only the need to solve the US/Canada dispute over lumber, a problem leftover from the Trump era. That’s a very good suggestion, but one unlikely to get much attention in Washington, simply because it means giving up an income stream. Plus, the Biden administration is as dumb as a box of rocks when it comes to economics. There were many problems with the Trump administration but its successor regime really does set all records for economic ignorance. And by the way, the housing shortage is due entirely to two factors: the lockdowns that stopped the market from functioning as it should, plus the huge demographic upheaval that caused so much in the way of population shift. If not tariffs, if not deregulation, how will the government respond? Let me break it to you: massive, historic, epic, unprecedented, beyond-belief bailouts. This is going to happen. How and why? Because they can. No one cares about the future. It’s all about creating illusions. And it is going to make 2020 look like nothing by comparison. How can one regime be so fiscally irresponsible? It’s because this is the only model they know in Washington. The notion of tolerating a recession was last attempted 40 years ago and it worked. But that knowledge is as far from current consciousness as cell biology. It’s lost knowledge. Plus, the Fed has already demonstrated what they can do when Congress goes bananas. They become the go-to market for the resulting debt, which they buy with newly minted digital money and stuff the results into the Fed’s already ballooned balance sheet. Zombification of America I seriously doubt that any of this will wait until after the November election. It will likely come to fruition this fall. Everyone will have their hands out. Every large, medium, and small-sized company. Every student facing debt issues. Every shipping company. Every industry. There will be pressure for universal bailouts. And they will work for a time. What they will create is a nation of zombie companies. Dead but walking. The recession is like a virus: it has to happen and nothing can stop it in the long run. So all the attempts to spend our way out it will come to naught. It will buy a year or maybe two and then the regime will change, and someone like De Santis will be handing the biggest pile of waste matter in the history of the US presidency. To top it off, this recession will be like no other. It will be characterized by both declining growth or consistently falling productivity, plus declining purchasing power. This will put old-style Keynesians in the same quandary they were in back in the 1970s. There are no more levers to pull. Where does the smart money go? That’s the big question. The usual answer in such times is toward real stuff like commodities, gold, real estate, but these days what is real must also include what is digitally real: crypto tech and its decentralized derivative services. Big money managers are only now coming around to realize this and they are preparing, even as big government is stepping up its regulatory war on the entire industry. Regards, [Jeffrey Tucker] Jeffrey Tucker Did Biden Just “CANCEL” Your Cash? [Click here to learn more]( This is the scenario we’ve been fearing… Instead of President Trump… We’ve got “Sleepy Joe” Biden behind the wheel. And now, a [sinister move that Biden just made]( could TORPEDO the U.S. dollar once and for all. In fact, thanks to this one move… Your dollars could be made worthless, or even CONFISCATED. Do NOT get caught off guard. [Click here to discover 4 EASY STEPS you can take to protect your wealth NOW](. [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2022 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Gilder's Daily Prophecy e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Gilder's Daily Prophecy, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@gildersdailyprophecy.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Gilder's Daily Prophecy is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Gilder's Daily Prophecy subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Gilder's Daily Prophecy.](