The Twelve Days of We’re Scrooged!

Happy birthday to me! Time to purge me of this bearishness… [The Rude Awakening] December 20, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( The Twelve Days of We’re Scrooged! - I’m 48 today! I promise to donate my liver to science one day if you read this piece. - This is the last negative piece of the year. - I’m writing happy stuff from tomorrow through Friday. [Are you prepared for heating bills to run $1,000 or more every month?]( Joe Biden has already set in motion a devastating series of events thanks to his party’s radical “Green New Scam” policies… This is already happening in the Northeast, with Bloomberg reporting: Former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon, Jim Rickards claims in order to dodge this winter nightmare you MUST “opt-out” before December 21st… Your bank account will thank you. [Click here now to watch my urgent warning before it's too late](. [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Tuesday to you, and Happy Birthday to me! I’ve made it to 48 years old, and I’m just thrilled. It’s a gorgeous, chilly day in Asti, and Pam is running out to get the cappuccinos in. And, of course, I get to spend my first cup of coffee with you. My publisher, Matt Insley, had a great idea in one of our editorial calls. He asked one of us to write the apocalyptically titled “The Twelve Days of We’re Scrooged.” All the bad news his editors, including me, had given him had taken him so aback that he thought we should write a series leading up to Christmas. After all, this is the Rude Awakening, so I heartily volunteered. Except I never plan well when I write. So, I had put off starting the list until I’d practically run out of days. My solution? I’ll write a listicle today, on the glorious day celebrating my birth. So here it is, The Twelve Days of We’re Scrooged, by Scrooge McSeanie: 1. It’s freezing: energy prices will continue to rise. Here’s the US weather map as of 3 AM EDT: [SJN] BRRRRRRRR! Those Green New Scam-loving, global fireball-hoping hippies must surely be disappointed. A warm winter won’t save us. It looks like [the ice cover I wrote about in November]( really did portend colder temperatures. And that means higher energy prices as everyone tries to stay toasty. Watch for natural gas, oil, and coal(!) to take off. Better wear baggy pants, George! [SJN] 2. BoJ is crushing the yen. Kamikaze Kuroda-san has just announced what amounts to another round of quantitative easing for the Bank of Japan. Yes, that’s the opposite direction of the other major central banks. Kuroda-san will allow the 10-year yield to rise but will ease that by buying more JGBs (Japanese government bonds). Predictably, the dollar rallied, and the SPX fell overnight on the news. I remain convinced the [BoJ is unhappy with the USDJPY]( and wants to see it above 200. 3. The last sucker’s rally of 2022. This chart is from Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley via [Zero Hedge]( [SJN] It may be a bit difficult to read, so follow me. Wilson rightly claims that the Sept CPI print and the Nov CPI print perfectly bookended the last sucker’s rally of 2022. Notice that the SPX bounced down off the 200-day MA and the downtrend line. We’ve pointed that out in earlier Rudes. Wilson also notes that relative strength started dropping off near the rally's end, indicating a trend change (bottom part of the chart). In all, the new year may start with a whimper. [Sad Because You Missed Out On The Crypto Boom? Your Timing Might Be PERFECT]( Because of the crash, super-valuable cryptocurrencies are trading for pennies on the dollar. Now is your chance to scoop them up… sit back… and let your fortune build. As I’m sure you can imagine, you need a different strategy to make money with cryptocurrencies today… [… and that’s exactly what you’ll find here.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( 4. Ukraine strikes inside Russia. Why is Ukraine getting a bit uppity? Because it has US weapons but [no longer listens to US Command when it doesn’t suit them](. Now that [the US is supplying Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine]( Ukraine is emboldened to strike targets inside Russia. This won’t end well for The West. Expect more escalation, which means more supply chain screw-ups and higher food and energy prices. 5. The 10th Sanctions Package. Since the [EU delivered its ninth sanctions package]( it will inevitably deliver a tenth. Why? Because they don’t work. But the EU needs to be seen as doing something [besides taking bribes from Qatar](. 6. Stanford Newspeak. Stanford is the latest “top” school to jump the shark. Back in May, it published a list of words that can no longer be used on the school’s websites. It’s known as the “Elimination of Harmful Language Initiative.” Of course, the list finally got out, [though Stanford tried to hide the list from the public](. Have fun making sentences with the words on [the list](. 7. Three letter agencies are running amok. The FBI monitors Twitter. The DHS won’t close the southern border. The NSA can hear everything you say. The IRS wants to take your money away. The DOE dumbs your kids down. The CIA still likes its sugar brown. Out of control and running amok, it’s time to shut them down. 8. 87,000 new IRS agents. But no! Instead of enforcing existing law, the [Biden administration is hiring 87,000 new IRS agents]( to bring in - allegedly - $125 billion over ten years. That’s $12.5 billion per year. What’s the point of that when your national debt is $31 trillion? An insane waste of money and resources, if you ask me. But it’s not about the money. It’s about control. 9. We’re Already in a Recession. [SJN] Besides the woeful Fed regional bank surveys, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index came out two days ago. It, too, is signally we’re already in a recession. The yield curve echoes that sentiment, as well. 10. Even Kissinger can’t stop this war. Imagine calling Henry Kissinger, the Master of Warring Disaster, an appeaser! [Well, that’s just what the Ukrainians did](. Heaven forbid someone sensible says, “It’s time to start peace talks.” Admittedly, I accused old Henry earlier this year of being [an old man desperate to get into heaven](. But give Henry his due; he’s got form calling for peace in this conflict. Though his late buddy Ziggy Brezenski thought Ukraine was the key to controlling the heartland of the world, old Hank knows the cost is too high. But Ukrainians and neocons disagree, which is why we’re in this mess still. 11. OPEC+ can’t increase output. This is what underinvestment in new refining gets you, from [oilprice.com]( The 19 OPEC+ members subject to the quota produced 310,000 bpd fewer barrels in November when compared to the month prior. But that’s still 1.81 million barrels per day short of its quota for November. November’s quota was a reduction of 2 million barrels per day off October levels, although it was understood at the time that the group might not be able to reach even that reduced target. Non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ group fared better than the traditional OPEC members, raising the combined output by 460,000 bpd—an eight-month high, according to Argus. Most of those increases came from Kazakstan, which saw a 330,000-bpd production increase, and Russia’s production, which saw an increase of 190,000 bpd after restarting Sakhalin 1. OPEC’s crude production was down 770,000 bpd for November, a six-month low. The production declines were led by Saudi Arabia, which saw its output reduced by 440,000 bpd. The biggest laggards among the broader OPEC+ group now, according to Argus, are Russia, producing 670,000 bpd under target: Nigeria, producing 530,000 bpd under target, Angola, producing 350,000 bpd under target, and Malaysia, producing 170,000 under target. Irina Slav of [oilprice.com]( wrote, “OPEC has not consistently produced more than 30 million bpd since 2015-2018. Structural underinvestment in new oil supply may lead to structurally higher prices.” This looks like the end of cheap oil, at least for a generation. 12. Despite all this, Mad Chairman Pow will still increase rates. He’s still hiking, folks. As I wrote in an earlier [Rude]( Chairman Pow doesn’t care about your retirement account. He doesn’t care about your ability to feed yourself. He doesn’t care about sending your kids to college. And he certainly doesn’t care if you’re employed by this time next year. Jay Powell cares about one thing and one thing only: his legacy. Don’t doubt the man. He’s on a mission for himself. Rates will increase well in 2023, barring an equities crash. Mr. Market is going to find out the hard way in January. Wrap Up Ok, no more pessimism for this year. From tomorrow through Friday, it’s unicorns and rainbows! I’ll raise a glass for you when I celebrate tonight. Have a great day ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2022 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. 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