November 2022: Monthly Asset Class Report

Stocks have a big month, bonds get crushed, and yields remain elevated. [The Rude Awakening] December 01, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( November 2022: Monthly Asset Class Report - The SPX was up 5.26% this month; the Dow had its best month in decades. - The 30-year bond was down over 6%. - Cryptos did well; bonds and real estate not so much. [Over 62 And Collect Social Security? Take Action Immediately!]( [If you’re over the age of 62 and currently collect Social Security, you need to prepare now](. Because Biden has given our country the worst inflation in decades – and many warn things will only get worse from here. Worse yet, the Social Security check you receive now may not keep pace with inflation… [Which is why, if you don’t act now, you could fall behind in the months ahead](. Is your retirement at immediate risk? [Click here now to get the simple, step-by-step actions to survive inflation](. [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Happy Thursday! About last night… Three things happened that are worthy of note. The jobs number came in well below expectations, but the market shook it off. Then, the Fed minutes came out. The equities market misinterpreted the message of “we’ll not as hard, but longer” as “we’re going to pivot.” Bonds and the dollar’s reactions were far more muted. And finally, weaselly George Stephanopoulos had Sam Bankman-Fried, of FTX infamy, on for some tea and crumpets. It’s staggering to me that SBF still breathes, let alone isn’t in jail. But since he was such a prominent Democrat fundraiser, he gets a pass. Insane. Look at the reaction to Powell’s speech yesterday: [SJN] You’d think we’re already at 5.50% and the economy is growing rapidly. This is Mr. Market smoking the hopium again. However, it’s essential to see the other side. How long will this rally last? Who knows for sure… To me, there was no huge news yesterday. Mr. Market and some dude in an apartment in Italy (me) already know that the Fed is only going to hike 50 bps in December. There’s no real news there. If the market took yesterday’s speech for “no hikes in 2023,” then I think Mr. Market will need some Valium come January. Let’s get to the charts. I didn’t cover myself in glory, that’s for sure. S&P 500 [SJN] Well, we’ve got above the 200-day moving average. Last month, I said it would be something to watch if we got here. The next stop is for the SPX to break the trend line (black) it’s been under since January. If it does, game on and get long. If not, this was a 600-point detour on the way to 3,213. Nasdaq Composite [SJN] Still not feeling it for tech. Over the long term, there’s no better place to earn big than in the tech space. But you’re going to take your lumps every ten years or so. We’re taking those lumps right now. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [SJN] Honor is due. Small caps have held up with all the bad policies and government-induced supply chain, inflation, and regulatory pain. Now above the 200-day moving average, there’s scope for a rally. Next stop: $200. Failing that, back down to $160. But the probability points up. The US 10-Year Yield [SJN] Instead of continuing to rally, we’ve come off to 3.68%. I think the market has this wrong, and we’ll get back up above 4% sometime soon. And then onto 5%. But in the meantime, yields and the dollar are weak. Dollar Index [SJN] Ouch. Got this one wrong. The dollar got crushed the first week of November and didn’t recover. I still believe Jay Powell will continue to hike for longer than the market thinks and that this will drive the dollar up. But until that case is proven, the dollar looks vulnerable. We may get back down to 102 at this rate. USG Bonds [SJN] Another one wrong. The TLT rallied six points this month. Though I still can’t think of a reason to own bonds. There’s still too much inflation in the system. That’s why Powell’s still raising rates. Investment Grade Bonds [SJN] Another big rally here, but I think it’s temporary. If we get above that 200-day moving average, it’s onward to 114. If not, we’ll be back under 100 in no time. High Yield Bonds [SJN] Junk continued its rally over the 200-day MA. I’m starting to get concerned about an overshot here, as well. If Jay Powell continues to hike, this can’t keep going up. [Weird Millionaire Makes Money By Listening To Whales]( An unusual millionaire says on [this page]( that he gets his best money-making tips from Whales. Not literal whales. Instead, these Whales are people who control massive amounts of cryptocurrencies. They’re commonly called “Whales.” And this millionaire follows their strategies to make tons of money. Anyone can copy what he’s doing. After the recent crash, following the moves of billionaire cryptocurrency Whales could make you a fortune. [Click here to find out their strategy.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Real Estate [SJN] Wrong again here. We had a big rally from 82 up to 88. But it’s still not a compelling enough story for me to get long here. Base Metals: Copper [SJN] Copper rallied and then bounced off its 200-day moving average. Though we’ve had a strong week, I think we’ll head back down. The macro numbers from the PMIs and the Fed Branches have been terrible. Precious Metals: Gold [SJN] Gold had a big first week in November that I didn’t see coming. We’re up nearly $100 since then. I’m getting more bullish on gold by the day. Start looking at royalty companies and gold miners. Precious Metals: Silver [SJN] Silver indeed has come to life. Above its 200-day MA, I’d like to see it rally to at least $25. But the precious metals seem to have awoken. Finally. Cryptos: Bitcoin [SJN] From two months ago: BTC’s chart is broken. I just don’t see how it’s going to recover this cycle. I’m still thinking $10,000. Or below. Down another $3,000 after all these scandals. Stay away. Cryptos: Ether [SJN] ETH was down another $300 this month. Not great. Steer clear of the entire crypto ecosystem for now. Trad Asset Class Summary [SJN] Equities had another face-ripping rally yesterday, which pushed the SPX return to nearly 6% in November. Bonds were also up big this month, recovering a bit from last month’s beatdown. Commodities were also up slightly. But much of this was because the dollar got clobbered this month. Will this trend last? I don’t think so. Powell is letting these rallies happen if only to keep Congress and the President at bay. If he raises 50 bps next month, which is a certainty, and then continues hiking into 2023, I think Mr. Market will reconsider its positioning. Crypto Class Summary [SJN] Litecoin was the sole outperformer in November. The rest of crypto was carted out. Again, I’d stay well clear of crypto for the time being. Wrap Up We had a nice rally this month, but I’m concerned about the underlying macro. That’s another reason why gold and silver may finally come into their own. Energy also makes up less than 5% of the SPX, so those companies going into winter are worth a look. Here’s the Meme of the Month, courtesy of the Twitterverse: [SJN] Have a great day ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening P.S. This past [July]( I wrote in the Rude: Americans and Europeans are having their wallets raped for a war no normie wants. The warmongers on both sides of the Atlantic think they’ll grind Russia down, but that’s not happening. In fact, Russia now owns the Donbas. Weren’t they supposed to be losing this war? Don’t be surprised when the Russians take the entire southern Ukrainian coast and Transnistria off Moldova. Well, you should see what my erstwhile colleague Jim Rickards has written in the next issue of Strategic Intelligence. If you’re not a subscriber, [head here]( for a lookie-loo. You may be shocked at his prediction. Or maybe not, since you read the Rude! [Head here]( now to read the amazing evidence Jim has come up with that agrees with my earlier claim! [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( © 2022 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please note: the mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so do not reply to this message. We welcome comments or suggestions at feedback@rudeawakening.info. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, [contact us here]( or call (844)-731-0984. 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