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Americans Are Only Now Waking Up [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] October 22, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( [External Advertisement] The Small Biotech Scaring Big Pharma On September 10, 2018, a tiny Cambridge biotech firm won a patent on a new kind of genetic software that has the potential to eliminate genetic disease from our species. Bill Gates and Google Ventures have already invested $120 million into this, and Investor's Business Daily estimates the market is worth at least $75 billion. [CLICK HERE to see how you can profit from this rare opportunity ]( Americans Are Only Now Waking Up [Jeffery Tucker] JEFFREY TUCKER Dear Reader, Good morning, America! The price of Halloween candy is up 21% over last year. Giving out free candy to random kids who ring the doorbell is no longer trivial. For some, the choice is between being generous in this traditional way or paying the heating and grocery bills. Prediction: the kids will come home with bags not nearly as full as they used to be. As ridiculous as this sounds, this is the sort of thing that wakes people up. The reality is that this is the new normal. Prices are not going back down. Oh sure, this or that sector will fall like housing and gas but this will be made up for in other ways and in other sectors. Your packages are permanently shrunk. Your income is permanently down. Your bills are permanently up. So is your debt. No Deflation In order for things to go back as they were, we would need to do more than end inflation. In order to restore the status quo ante, we would need a deflation of 12% or more. That is contrary to Federal Reserve policy. They believe that allowing that would be a dramatic failure because, they believe, this would drive depression. It wouldn’t but that does not matter. These people are stuck with heads full of faulty doctrine. For the better part of 18 months, most people have walked around thinking that all of this was an anomaly. Part of the reason is that all official sources said this. Biden said it. His spokespeople said it. The Treasury Secretary said it. The New York Times too. They were all sending off the signal that all of this was temporary and life would go back to normal in short order. It’s all transitory. Americans don’t know what “transitory” even means. And maybe that’s right. It doesn’t mean anything. It’s just a dumb word meaning from one thing to another. No one asked the purveyors of transitory baloney: of what precisely does this transition consist? Mass Innumeracy What Americans especially do not understand is numbers. That’s because math education has been failing for decades. As a result, people do not even understand that a slower pace of up is still up. A stopping pace of up still puts you up beyond where you were before. It sounds crazy but truly people do not get this. And they sure as heck do not understand inflation numbers. Two months ago, Biden said that inflation was zero. He was referring to the month-over-month pace of increase. But what people heard was: wow, our problems are over. They are far from over. Year-over-year is how inflation is measured, even in the long-gone zero month, prices were still up 8.2% overall (probably more but let’s accept the official data). And that was fleeting and ignored the previous quarter. Zero does NOT make prices go down! It means that they stay high and don’t fall or rise. You get it but multitudes do not. So too for a declining rate of increase. It is still an increase! That inflation was year-over-year 8.5% rather than 8.4% is not solving inflation. Imagine a person who put on 100 pounds over 12 months but only two pounds last month. Is this person closer to reaching his dietary goals? No, he is further away but only at a slower pace of further away. So too if he went a whole month without gaining weight. He is not thin. He still has a major problem. So it is for the U.S. and the whole world. We have a major problem that is getting worse. And if today, things stopped getting worse, all the price indexes will remain up. I’m not going out on a limb here to say that there will be no going back to old prices. The dollar has lost $0.12 of value over the last 18 months. Nothing is going to change this. Sadly, people are only now realizing this. Economists habitually believe that markets are smart. What they mean is that markets are smarter than governments but that does not mean that markets are omniscient. Markets have largely been in denial about the pillaging of our times. But that is now changing. Urgent Warning About The IRS! [Click here to learn more]( Biden has just announced the largest expansion of the IRS in our nation’s history, adding 87,000 new agents… And if you’re an American taxpayer, this move could directly impact you. Because many warn these new agents will be used to target regular Americans just like you. That’s why you need to take action right away… [Click here now for the full story](. The Profit Squeeze Back around the inauguration day of Biden, the pace of change of producer and consumer prices flipped. In the before times, producer prices were rising more slowly than retail goods and services. With that change, producers started to be squeezed. Now they find themselves unable to pass on higher costs regardless of tricks like smaller packaging, adding surcharges, and sneaking in unexpected fees. They now must cut. As predicted, stockholders and owners are looking carefully at mid-level management that lived well during the pandemic, loving their new lives as pajama-clad Slack warriors. Hosts of people with a stake in company valuations are asking the crucial question: what is it precisely that these people do? Tens of thousands are now being fired. Microsoft announced new layoffs just this morning. So you have a weird situation in which the average Dunkin’ Donuts can’t find employees while tech firms with bloated management layers have way too many people. The only solution here is a downgrading of lifestyle and social status for millions of people previously classified among the Haute bourgeois. This is truly intolerable for most people, as Joseph Schumpeter pointed out in the 1950s. People simply will not go along, and this is going to cause tremendous social unrest among white-collar workers the likes of which we’ve never seen in nearly a hundred years. What will be the result? I’m willing to bet it will not be more freedom. The Masses are Restless Every poll to which we have access suggests tremendous dissatisfaction among nearly every one and in every country in the world outside Scandinavia. What does revolution look like in an industrial democracy? We really don’t have the historical experience to know. But we are going to find out. The ruling classes have really gone way too far. All we have left to us is the electoral system. What happens when that also fails to make a difference? The damage is already done. Americans are only now waking up to reality. They are finally getting a sense that their lives of comfort and ease and ever-rising living standards are at an end. Every dark dystopian fantasy is unfolding before our eyes. How long will this go on even under the best possible conditions? We are looking at five years at least. A serious banking and financial crisis on top of everything else will alter the environment dramatically. Is one brewing? There is every indication that it is. The Fed is working on many fronts today to keep that from happening, including issuing billions per day in daily liquidity to foreign central banks. These are mere bandaids applied to a patient bleeding fast. The difference now is that people have caught on. Finally. Regards, [Jeffrey Tucker] Jeffrey Tucker P.S. 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