Monthly Asset Class Report

“Love me and despair!” rages King Dollar. [The Rude Awakening] October 03, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Monthly Asset Class Report - King Dollar slays all other asset classes. - With the Fed raising 75 bps in September, with more to come, there’s no sign of relief. - Stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate were hammered. [Attention! Before You Read Any Further…]( Before you read any further in today’s issue, an urgent situation needs your immediate attention. If you don’t plan on [claiming this new upgrade to your Strategic Intelligence subscription,]( you’re missing out on a huge opportunity. Right now is your chance to grab one of the biggest (and most valuable) upgrades our company has ever made to a newsletter. I’m taking Strategic Intelligence to an entirely new level and I’d hate to see you left behind. [To see how to claim your subscription upgrade, click here now.]( Once you’re done with that, read on to see today’s issue. [Click Here To Learn More]( [Sean Ring] SEAN RING Dear Reader, Happy Monday! Before I start my rant, let me say that I hope you had a wonderful, restful weekend. Ok, I’ll get into it now. I just don’t know why anyone would call “The Bottom” here. It’s insane, as far as I’m concerned. There’s literally no good news out right now. Nothing to cling to. Nothing to soothe. The financial world looks as good as a drunk carpenter’s thumb. Geopolitics is a mess. Europe will probably be ground zero for the imminent crisis. Now we’re six straight months below the SPX 200-day moving average. Awful. [ESPX] As an old Street/City/Chinese saying goes: He who picks bottoms, Gets smelly fingers. Not me. We’ve got a ways to go yet. Let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 [S&P 500] After a decent first week of the month, the bottom fell out. There’s actually no good news on the horizon. And if you try to comfort yourself with the “at least Europe is worse” narrative, remember that 30% of the SPX’s earnings come from foreign countries. My 3,213 call remains. Nasdaq Composite [Nasdaq] Again, a good first week for the Nazzie and then a Hulk smash for the next three. The next targets down are 10,275 and 9,750, respectively. With inflation raging and the Fed hiking, this is an awful time for tech stocks. Russell 2000 (Small caps) [Russell 2000 (Small caps)] Credit where it’s due: small businesses are holding up. I’ll stick with my $160 call. And yes, the next levels below there are the $145 to $140 zone. But this is ever so slightly optimistic. The US 10-Year Yield [The US 10-Year Yield] We crept up from 3.15% to 3.83%. Again, there’s no telling how high rates will go before we head back down. But it’s safe to say that we won’t be below 3% for the foreseeable future. Dollar Index [Dollar Index] From four months ago: My guess is the USD will hover between 98 and 104 until Powell convinces the market he’s going to squash the inflation threat. Fed Board member Waller wants hikes until rates hit at least 2.5% but is happy to go higher. If the rest of the Fed Board feels that way, the USD will retest 105 and breakthrough. Sticking to what I wrote two months ago: We broke through 104 and headed straight up to 109 before retreating. I still think the USD has more to go - and I stick to my 120 call. But Powell’s moves over the next few months will determine whether I’m right. At 112.08, we’re due for a pullback, but 120 is in sight. USG Bonds [USG Bonds] From last month: I’m still looking at $105 for my target level. Well, that was quick! In a horror situation, the next support may be all the way down at 82! Investment Grade Bonds [Investment Grade Bonds] From two months ago: We clearly bounced off my 107 level and proceeded to make the 114s. Again, this could be the beginning of the end, as we need to break through 115. My guess is that we’ll head back down to 107 shortly. Ok, we’re at 102.45. Next stop 100, then 97. High Yield Bonds [High Yield Bonds] Down another $3 this past month. HYG isn’t where anyone has wanted to be in a while. The Covid bottom was about $60. That looks like the next stop. Real Estate [Real Estate] From last month: If we get below 86, there’s nothing between there and 72 to hold it up. Very bearish on this, as housing affordability is going up in smoke. Nothing to add there. [New Federal Rule could change America forever]( Everything about your way of life is about to change – thanks to a new rule passed by the Federal Government. How much you pay for energy… how you shop for groceries… even how much you pay for healthcare – it could all radically change. That’s according to the man dubbed “The Tech Prophet” by Forbes magazine. [Not only that, he believes it could create one of the greatest money-making opportunities in American history – click here to see why.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Base Metals: Copper [Base Metals: Copper] Not a great month here. My call is $2.90, as the economy is massively slowing down. Copper demand is heading down the crapper with it. Precious Metals: Gold [Precious Metals: Gold] Gold just doesn’t want to stay up. Inflation through the roof and the shiny yellow metal is nowhere to be found. Down again this month (another $50). A pox on its house! Precious Metals: Silver [Precious Metals: Silver] Silver was up a few bucks this month. Raise the flag! The chart is still ugly, but at least Yawny McYawnface is showing signs of life. Cryptos: Bitcoin [Cryptos: Bitcoin] From last month: BTC’s chart is broken. I just don’t see how it’s going to recover this cycle. I’m still thinking $10,000. Or below. This is death by a thousand paper cuts. Cryptos: Ether [Cryptos: Ether] Ugly. Down a few hundred bucks this month. Not many in the crypto world are happy with ETH. Some think they’ve made a massive misstep with The Merge. That’s the upgrade from the original proof-of-work mechanism to proof-of-stake. We’ll see… Trad Asset Class Summary [Dollar Index] We had our 75-bp hike from the Fed in September. And the market(s) were hammered. After a terrible August, the SPX was down nearly 10% in September. As yields rose, the dollar gained over 2%. Thanks to that, bonds and commodities were down over 5.5% each. Crypto Class Summary [Crypto Class Summary] The big story this month was Ripple (XRP). It’s up nearly 50%, apparently due to the “whales,” or big crypto traders, being in accumulation mode. Another reason may be that the SEC is having many setbacks in its case against Ripple. The rest of the crypto world was flat to down this month, with ETH getting smacked again. Wrap Up I wish I had better news for you. But the best thing you can doright now is to own a business with USD cash flow. Here’s the Meme of the Month, courtesy of my buddy H: [Meme of the month] Try to keep a smile on your face. And have a great week ahead! All the best, [Sean Ring] Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement](. 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