Turkey may block Sweden and Finlandâs accession into NATO, but probably not. Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to Rude Awakening here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [The Rude Awakening] If there’s anything you’ve missed as part of your membership to Rude Awakening, make sure you check out our website where you can find archives, updates, and everything else that's included in your subscription. You can access it by [clicking here now](. Letâs Talk Turkey - Turkey made noises about Sweden and Finlandâs accession into NATO.
- Although this made the elite cringe for a second, itâs probably just a negotiating ploy.
- Even Putin has backed off concerning their accession, only warning about placing weapons there. Recommended Link [Urgent Weekend Message From New England]( [Click here for more...]( With markets in turmoil Iâve been extremely busy doing interviews and strategic consulting. But there is something I havenât said on TV regarding this crisis. Something I am reserving for newsletter subscribers like you. And itâs extremely urgent. I was able to get a moment on my computer and record this message over Zoom that Iâd like you to watch immediately. [Click Here To Watch Now]( Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Good morning on this fine Tuesday. Napoleon Bonaparte once said, âIf the Earth were a single state, Istanbul would be its capital." I couldnât agree more. Iâve been to the Turkish capital at least a half-dozen times, and itâs a treat every time. Iâll be there again this September, flying through on the way to Hans Hoppeâs shindig in Bodrum. I havenât been there in years, thanks to the âunknown virus of unspecified origin,â as the Critical Drinker likes to put it. I canât wait to see old libertarian and Hoppean friends who know whatâs going on in the world. If I carefully avoid the left-libertarians who sneak in, Iâll have five full days of sanity. But thatâs another subject for another time. While the New York skyline awed me in my youth, and Londonâs history dazzled me for ten years, Istanbul is perhaps my pick for âgreatest city on Earth.â Surprised? What if I told you Istanbul had Sydneyâs harbor, Romeâs antiqueness, Londonâs skyline (though the church spires are replaced with minarets), and Western Asiaâs exoticism? Itâs one of those places I think everyone should visit at least once. And once wonât be enough, once you taste the cuisine. So you understand itâs not odd that Iâm interested in Istanbul in particular and Turkey in general. And Turkey made some temporary waves that I wish were permanent. So what happened? Let me tell you about it. Sweden and Finland Poop the Bed âEverything has changed.â So triggered by Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland dropped nearly eight decades of neutrality and non-alignment. Swedish Prime Minister Magdelena Andersson said that Sweden and Europe ânow live in a new and dangerous reality." But like Norway, Sweden wonât accept nuclear weapons or military bases on its soil. As Sweden and Finland already participate in NATO exercises and have advanced militaries, Iâm not sure how formally joining NATO changes the math all that much. Speaking of change, I thought Iâd show you how the map of Europe has changed since the 1980s. First up is the map of the original NATO and Warsaw Pact countries: Credit: [BYU Library]( This is the map of Europe now: Credit: [The Left Berlin]( via [The Guardian]( [Not one inch eastward]( aye? Turkey Negs the Bid⦠or Did They? Unexpectedly - and quite hilariously - Turkey has made noises it wonât accept NATOâs newest applicants. Each NATO country has a vote on new applicants and the allianceâs vote for accession must be unanimous. Turkey has never been comfortable with Sweden and Finland harboring what Turkey calls terrorist groups. Turkey accuses them of hosting Kurdish organizations, such as the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers' Party) and the YPG, its offshoot in Syria. Joke Biden also managed to piss off one of NATOâs most loyal and longest serving countries. Turkish President Recep Tayyp Erdogan recently said, âWe had good relations with Obama and Trump and had no problem talking. Have we achieved the same with Mr. Biden? No, we havenât. That wasnât what we wanted,â he recently lamented. But more importantly, the Turks havenât sanctioned Russia and donât want the situation to escalate any further. From the European Council on Foreign Relations: Senior Turkish officials are quietly concerned that the conflict is now turning into a NATO-Russia war and that the risk of escalation is growing, fuelled by greater arms support for Ukraine and the absence of a negotiations framework. They are also disappointed with the Westâs reluctance to rally behind Turkish-brokered ceasefire talks. High-level Turkish officials have accused âsome NATO countriesâ of not wanting the war to end in order to harm Russia. Most political commentators whose work Iâve read agree that Erdogan is merely raising the price of membership. Sweden suspended any arms sales to Turkey in 2019 over Ankara's military operation in neighboring Syria. That suspension will likely be dropped. Joke Biden will probably be cajoled to call Erdogan to give him some love, as well. In the end, I suspect Sweden and Finland will enter NATO. 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Russia Initially Flips Out, Then Putin Relents Last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said the Nordic nations joining NATO was a âgrave mistakeâ that would have âfar-reaching consequences.â Ah, the usual saber-rattling. But then Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to relent. From [Politico]( âAs for the expansion [of NATO], including through new members of the alliance â Finland, Sweden â Russia wants to inform you that it has no problems with these states,â Putin said on Monday, speaking at a gathering in Moscow of leaders from the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-backed military alliance. âTherefore, in this sense, expansion on account of these countries does not pose a direct threat to Russia.â Putin then added: âThe expansion of military infrastructure on this territory will undoubtedly cause us to respond,â Putin told the leaders of the five former Soviet republics, adding that NATOâs âendless expansionary policyâ also ârequired additional attention on our part.â If I were a betting man, Iâd say Putin is fine with Sweden and Finland entering NATO on their terms (no nukes or bases). There really is no material difference, especially if Moscow doesnât plan to invade. Itâs just a political âfeel-goodâ gesture to make their hysterical populations feel safer. Wrap Up The money-sucking dinosaur known as NATO will get two members. Sweden and Finland will be admitted, though Iâm unsure how NATO changes. (The Washington Post has some good statistics [here](. Itâs just the land border that changes.) With Moscow not caring so much about the new additions, itâs absurd for Turkey to object to them. Of course, politics is the theater of the absurd, so I suspect Erdogan will get his weapons ban lifted and a joint press conference down the road with the US President. At least someone is getting something out of this! Of course, I would rather the erstwhile Turkish President do something about his ailing lira, which is currently trading at 15.61 to the USD. But not yet! Iâve got a holiday in Istanbul and Bodrum coming up. Until tomorrow. All the best, Sean Ring
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