Monthly Asset Class Report

Last month’s stock market rally was for suckers. Commodities led the way again. Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to Rude Awakening here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [The Rude Awakening] Monthly Asset Class Report - April smacked tech stocks and other large caps in the mouth. - Bonds got crushed, as did real estate; metals were flat to down. - Monero held up, but most other cryptos were crushed. Recommended Link [1992 Book Reveals: The Next Big Tech Obsession]( [Click here for more...]( Silicon Valley insiders have spent the last 30 years passing a “secret playbook” around their inner circles. This “secret playbook” ([which I reveal right here]( has pointed the world’s biggest tech moguls to major breakthroughs that have helped disrupt entire industries... Now, for the first time ever, tech billionaires are set to reveal the “final chapter” of this mysterious book. And I’ve secured you special access to a full rundown of this little-known breakthrough. [Click Here To Learn More]( Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening I write this on a quiet Sunday afternoon in Piedmont. They still celebrate that old commie holiday, Labor Day, on its original date, May 1st. From Wikipedia: In 1889, May Day was chosen as the date for International Workers' Day by the socialists and communists of the Second International, as well as anarchists, labor activists, and leftists in general around the world, to commemorate the Haymarket affair in Chicago and the struggle for an eight-hour working day. That labor union despiser Henry Ford gave them the 8-hour workday always brings a smile to my face. Before I get into the report, I want to let you know that my mentor and boss, Addison Wiggin interviewed me last month and put it on YouTube, unbeknownst to me. Everything I said in that interview still stands, though it’s a month old. The most important thing you need to do is read the charts in the report. So I’ll put the interview link in the P.S. I hope you can spend some time on a lighthearted but content-filled 40 minutes (if you watch it on 1.5x speed, which I recommend). As for this month, everything but yields and the USD was down. It was just ugly across the board. But my little observations proved to be pretty spot-on for the most part. So I hope you feel like these monthly reports give you a leg up on your investing. With that said, let’s get to the charts. S&P 500 From last month’s report: …the SPX rallied about 400 points in the last two weeks of the month for a big sucker’s rally, which caught out many. But if last week represented the local high point, we’re in for an ugly April. As the above is a weekly chart, you can see how the last four weeks have worked out. The sucker’s rally gains are no more. [On March 7, I wrote that 3213 or thereabouts]( looks like a reasonable downside target for the SPX. I’m sticking to that level. Nasdaq Composite Ugly, ugly, ugly. The entire tech complex, save AAPL, is awful. FB, AMZN, NFLX, NVDA, and GOOG all own terrible charts. Avoid. Russell 2000 (Small caps) From last month: The Russell has held steady to its great credit, but I stick to my $160 call. It’s heading at least to there. The US 10-Year Yield From last month’s report: We finished the month at 2.38%. I’m not sure how much farther Powell can go with tightening when the USG’s fiscal edifice starts to fall apart. Remember, for every 1% increase in rates, you add $300 million to the USG’s interest costs. As Jay Powell is committed to hiking rates now, we can go much higher than 2.89%. Dollar Index From three months ago, but it nearly holds word-for-word: Ok, I’ve updated JC Paret’s chart on the USD here. Early in the month, we bounced off that 38% level of 94.80ish and rallied over the 50% line. I thought we’d be off to the races, but we traded back down immediately to 96.54. My best guess is that we’ll dilly dally around this level before rates go up and we take off from here. Next stop: 98.20, with an eye on the all-important psychological level of 100. Welp, we didn’t stay at that 100 level for long, shooting for the previous secular high of about 103.76 before easing off. The paradox is that commodities are still rallying while the USD rallies. And though the USG wants the dollar to weaken, the Fed must raise rates to fight inflation. So while we’re in this hiking cycle, the USD will continue to rise. But once the Fed either chickens out or crashes the market, the USD will be nothing more than sophisticated confetti. USG Bonds From last month: I said we’d hit 132, and so we have. We got all the way down to 128, but then another bear market rally happened. Fair enough. Now I’m looking at the 127 level, then 117 after that. We’ve already hit 127 - early in April - and now we’re sitting around 119. The next stop is indeed 117. After that, we may hit 105. But that’s a way off if it happens at all. Investment Grade Bonds From last month’s report: We got down to 118 before another bear market rally. There’s not much holding this up between here and 100. We’re already at 112.60. Lower highs and lower lows. There’s nothing to like here. High Yield Bonds From last month: We got down below 80, but bounced off there. I’m still looking at that 77 level first. There’s nothing I like about junk right now. I’m sticking to that - and I’ve got nothing more to add. Real Estate From last month: I like this real estate rally, if only for the insane inflation argument. But since we’ve already had one false breakout recently, there’s nothing to guarantee this time is for real. And it wasn’t. And a nasty smackdown on the last trading day of the month doesn’t make me any more bullish. But we’re back in the previous range, awaiting a definitive move. Recommended Link [If you missed out on bitcoin – WATCH THIS NOW]( [Click here for more...]( If you’re still kicking yourself for missing the boat on bitcoin, America’s top futurist has good news… He claims that tech insiders are already moving beyond bitcoin and into an even more lucrative technology. One that could soon send a shockwave through the tech world… ruin many major Silicon Valley companies… and propel a new class of stocks towards trillion-dollar status. [Click Here To Learn More]( Base Metals: Copper Not much here, again. But considering the awful macro news coming out lately - especially the [Philly Fed]( - I must remind you Dr. Copper is also a leading economic indicator. April’s sell-off was quite severe, though still within range and corroborated the Philly Fed’s dire forecast. Precious Metals: Gold Gold remains frustrating. That is all. Precious Metals: Silver Like Gold, it’s another yawnfest. We should start calling silver “Yawny McYawnface.” Cryptos: Bitcoin From last month: BTC is up, but not as much as I suspected. It couldn’t break its 200-day moving average, and that’s not a good sign. We’re down another $10,000 since I wrote that. Are we heading to $30,000 for support, perhaps? If so, a break below that would be disastrous. Cryptos: Ether From last month: ETH may be a real rally rather than a sucker’s one. It just retook its 200-day moving average, but the jury’s still out until it makes a new all-time high. Glad I wrote, “may be.” Because it certainly didn’t turn out that way. Down as a percentage even more, than BTC was, ETH disappointed in April. How much leverage is holding up this market? Trad Asset Class Summary Commodities led the way again, to no one’s surprise. But the USD was up again, as well. Both bonds and equities got hammered. Equities confirmed the March rally was a “sucker’s rally.” I don’t think we’re done yet. In fact, this may only be the “end of the beginning.” Crypto Class Summary Monero, the most secretive coin, held its gains from last month. But everything else was crushed. I thought ETH might hold up for a new rally, but it didn’t. Wrap Up Thanks for spending the time. I’d love to give you happier news, but as far as I’m concerned, the following asset classes currently suck: - Bonds - Stocks (especially tech stocks) - Precious metals (boring) - Base metals (could foretell a recession) - Real estate (a pretty significant sell-off) That’s about all of them. But it’s important to remember you’ve got to play the hand you’re dealt. Economic freedom is freedom. Voting is something you do when you can’t afford to pay off your politician. Always keep this in mind, and you’ll keep your eye on the ball. Until tomorrow. All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening P.S. I’m a silly bastard sometimes. You may remember me mentioning my mentor and boss, Addison Wiggin interviewed me live from a Filipino jail. That was just before I left Asia to come to Europe. I didn’t realize the team posted it on YouTube, so I couldn’t tell you to watch it! Everything I mentioned still holds. If you have a spare 40 minutes, you can [watch it here](. Watch It was light, chockful of what I’ve written in Rude. I hope you join us for a late bit of fun. [Whitelist Us]( | [Archive]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Unsubscribe]( Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [unsubscribe](. 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